NoVa Caps discussed the biggest surprises for the Washington Capitals; now, we will turn to the opposite side of the spectrum and talk about who has not been living up to their expectations thus far.
Our analysts will give their input on who has been underperforming this season and what we can expect from them heading into the campaign’s second half.
Jacob: Nick Jensen and Trevor van Riemsdyk
Jensen‘s tenure in Washington has been marked by inconsistencies. Upon his acquisition at the 2019 trade deadline, he showcased promise. Throughout his inaugural season with the team, he experienced peaks and valleys, gradually ascending as the season wore on. The preceding and subsequent seasons emerged as the apex of his Capitals career, during which he arguably stood out as the premier shutdown defenseman on the roster alongside former blueliner Dmitry Orlov. Their synergy was palpable, yet Jensen faltered after Orlov’s departure at last year’s trade deadline.
Fast forward to the present year, and Jensen’s performance has plummeted. The 33-year-old has grappled with positional awareness in his zone and has made poor decisions with the puck. Despite being paired with Joel Edmundson, envisioned as Washington’s shutdown tandem, they have floundered, registering a 12.8 xGA at five-on-five, the second-highest among defensive pairings this season.
Although the Capitals are unlikely to part ways with Jensen due to his three-year contract extension signed last February, his production remains lackluster, with just seven points in 47 games and a minus-6 rating.
Similarly, van Riemsdyk has disappointed, mirroring Jensen’s struggles in defensive play and positional awareness. Through 39 games, the 32-year-old only has eight assists and a minus-9 rating. His relegation as a healthy scratch during January reflects his decline from being one of the team’s most undervalued defensemen last season. While previously adept with his stick, he now falters in front of the net and often finds himself out of position.
Thomas Harley is heating back up.
You don’t want to let Thomas Harley heat back up. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/DhzDgN0qM0
— Dallas Stars (@DallasStars) January 27, 2024
Diane: Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov
Ovechkin, aged 38 as of this September, was expected to see a decline in his goal-scoring prowess compared to his impressive 42-goal season last year. However, the anticipation was that he would still surpass the 30-goal mark, as it’s uncommon for players to drop from forty goals to less than twenty without injury. Yet, in the first forty-seven games of this season, he’s only managed nine goals, putting him on track for a mere sixteen by season’s end. To put it into perspective, he’s only one goal ahead of Los Angeles Kings center Pierre-Luc Dubois and one behind San Jose Sharks right wing Anthony Duclair, both considered significant underperformers, with Dubois even rumored to be on the trade block.
Before the season commenced, the expectation was for Ovechkin to net at least thirty goals, aiming to reach a career milestone of 852 goals, potentially surpassing Wayne Gretzky’s record. However, if he only manages sixteen goals for the 2023-24 season, his chances of overtaking Gretzky before his contract ends in 2025-26 appear doubtful.
This decline in Ovechkin’s goal-scoring prowess has also impacted the Capitals’ offensive performance. He contributed significantly to the team’s goal tally in previous seasons, accounting for a substantial percentage (e.g., 18% in 2021-22 and 15.8% in 2023-24). However, with his diminished goal output this season, the team’s offensive ranking has plummeted from the middle of the pack to near the bottom. On a brighter note, Ovechkin has managed to rack up twenty-two assists thus far.
As for Kuznetsov, his performance has also been lackluster. He’s on track for career-low numbers with just six goals and eleven assists in forty-three games. Particularly concerning is his low assist count, especially for a center whose role typically involves setting up teammates for goals. He’s already faced being healthy scratched for a game and has been relegated from his usual first-line center position to the third line. His advanced statistics, including Corsi-For Percentage, Fenwick-For Percentage, and Expected Goals Percentage, have consistently fallen below 50%, indicating subpar performance.
Michael: The Power Play
The Capitals’ power play has been faltering in its once-vaunted effectiveness for some time now. No longer is John Carlson going to fool opponents with a quick dish over to Ovechkin, who, despite some moments, has been virtually invisible on the scoreboard this season. And after finishing 16th in their final season under head coach Peter Laviolette with a 21.2% PP%, the team has sunk to a dismal 27th place with a 14.5% efficiency so far in the 2023-24 season.
After leading the Toronto Maple Leafs’ man advantage to the second-best unit in his two seasons as an assistant coach, Washington’s power-play has disappointed greatly in head coach Spencer Carbery’s first season on the job (although assistant Kirk Muller is in charge of the man-advantage specifically). However, the team has moved a few players around, and the unit’s MO looks the same: get the puck across to Ovechkin for the expected one-timer.
The absence of Nicklas Backstrom is illustrated nightly for the Capitals, especially regarding the team’s ability to set up and move the puck in the offensive zone with a man up. Players like Ovechkin and Kuznetsov have been absent from the scoresheet offensively, which has not helped matters. It will be crucial for the team to completely reimagine their power play in the second half of the campaign, whether this means taking players off altogether or using a different entry method; the team’s offensive woes have been partly thanks to their lackluster power play.
Harrison: Alex Ovechkin
There are a lot of answers to this one: Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Carlson, and Darcy Kuemper all come to mind.
The biggest one has to be Ovechkin. Yes, his goal-scoring was supposed to come down eventually, but nine goals and thirty-one points in forty-four games? That is way below where he expected to come in. The 38-year-old had a career-long 14-goal drought around the holidays, and the lack of primary scoring fell on him first and foremost. Others bear the responsibility, of course, but Ovechkin is the goal-scorer captain and best of all time.
Kuznetsov is not first because Ovechkin has never scored less than thirty-two in a regular campaign, and he is barely a quarter of the way there with half of the season left. Will he come alive down the stretch?
By Jacob Cheris, Diane Doyle, Michael Fleetwood and Harrison Brown
I also put blame on the coaches as they have been unable to come up with an offense that works and the defense has been shaky to say the least. Look at the +/- laggard on this team, and it is the players that were supposed to lead the team back to the playoffs. I realize the coaches inherited several players on the decline, but the really good coaches can create systems that work for their talent. And I continue to wonder what the GM is up to (or not up to). His track record so far is mighty weak.
Caps are not getting any production out of the youth. As a matter of fact: other than Mantha, Wilson and Strome, the team disappoints. I point my finger at the coaching staff. Every night the lines are different. I could go on and on about the negatives. It’s time to turn this season into a positive
Isn’t that the same thing that the last HC did, change the lines all the time, with negative results?
With Kuzy, well it’s something addictive. With Ovi, it’s more than simply age.
I’m seeing prospect evaluation with the Bolts that I didn’t expect to see — the Crunch are ok, but not great. I did expect to see that with a new Caps HC and haven’t. We’re hanging on to players that aren’t producing and not evaluating enough the players in our pipeline. OK, could be some waiver issues and Lord knows, I don’t want to hinder the Bears’ success this year. And getting called up to DC just to sit in the press box as a spare doesn’t help player, Caps, or Bears.
I don’t know if we have NHL talent in Hershey. But we do have talent. And the articles here every week point out the flaws in the Caps roster while celebrating the success of the Bears roster. I don’t want a complete rebuild, but as we go into the trade deadline and then this summer, what Caps holes can we fill in house and what do we need to go outside to get? How do we know if we don’t take chances and give our prospects tryouts? Who is making this decision? If it’s Carbs, he is not the coach I thought he was going to be. Is it GMBM? One of the Patricks? Or is everyone marching to the tune that Ted is playing? Something needs to change. The Caps are boring and the articles every week pointing out the same flaws are getting boring too (and must be terribly hard to write).
I agree that we should first look within, and test what we’ve got, before trying to rake stuff in from the outside. And if we get a really good piece from without, I’d take it too. But not too many of those.
And another thought, as the mgmt contemplates whether it’s sell or buy or whatever: team spirit is also very important, you have to nurture that.
Biggest dissapointment this season: 1) Ovie and his lost scoring touch; 2) the Gm in his inability to trade or release players who are unproductive and allowing this team to become what it currently is…..a bunch of players who on most nights do not mesh well; 3) that management is stagnant and old and unproductive, the Patricks and the GM and a meddling owner; 4) trying to squeeze another year out of old, slow players that should have been traded several years ago; 5) no clear vision of the future however still under the delusion that they are a playoff team; 6) not realizing that to get better you do not pay older players but rather ahve to lose to get the high draft picks that once broung guys like Ovie, Backy and others, the silly retooling is not working. I guess you can add one morei n that the problem with Kuzy was not delt with several years ago. I would rather see a complete rebuild rather than this “retool” which is just patching what is bad but not making it better! They hired a man as HC who one day will show what he can do however he can not show what he can do with washed up players or the constand dumpster dives that the GM brings in to save money because they over paid several failing players. Now is the timetodealanyone over 26 for whatever they can get for them and start the rebuild! Honestly I can stomach watching young players lose games as they learn however I can not watch this bunch ofgeriatric,slow and collection of dumpster dives play as it is a disgrace to this organization, to the NHL and should be an abomination to the fans!!
I pretty much expected the team to not be so good again this year as the transition continues, so for me it’s just the fact that Ovi has having a bad year. I don’t think anyone saw that coming.
Clearly several choices but as disappointed as I am in different things, Ovi isn’t in top 3 for me. We knew this time was coming and I am not convinced this isn’t an aberration due to a leg injury. When he was in Dallas, he didn’t seem to be able drive as hard as he typically does. Looked completely different last night.
He could still score 20 which is far from a disaster too.
Top concern is we don’t have an AHLer with 10 goals. Our fans that want an AHL team up here, well, I hope they are seeing the difference. When 19 and 8 and 74 along with Green arrived and others, they took spots. These guys, sheeesh, fans want stuff handed to them and they play like they want spots handed to them also.
2nd concern is Kuzy and 3rd would be defensive scoring.
Ovi, please, still 2nd on the team in points. Yep, means we suck, but also means he can’t be the biggest, or close, concern.