Photo: CTV News Edmonton

With the second round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs getting underway on Sunday afternoon, there is plenty to look forward to with the two best teams from the regular season, four Western Conference powerhouses squaring off, and a rematch from last Spring getting showcased. NoVa Caps previews the four second-round series:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Metropolitan #1 New York Rangers vs. Metropolitan #2 Carolina Hurricanes (NYR leads 1-0)

Regular-season leaders:

CAR

• C Sebastian Aho (36 goals, 53 assists, 89 points)
• RW Seth Jarvis (33 goals, 34 assists, 67 points)
• D Brent Burns (21:30 average TOI/game)
• G Pytor Kochetkov (23 wins)

NYR

• LW Artemi Panarin (49 goals, 71 assists, 120 points)
• C Vincent Trocheck (25 goals, 52 assists, 77 points)
• D Adam Fox (23:26 average TOI/game)
• G Igor Shesterkin (36 wins)

First-round leaders:

CAR

• Jarvis (three goals, seven points)
• Burns (22:39 average TOI/game)
• RW Stefan Noesen (three goals)
• D Brady Skjei (five assists)
• D Jaccob Slavin (22:39 average TOI/game)
• G Frederik Andersen (.912 save percentage)

NYR

• Trocheck (three goals, 22:19 average TOI/game)
• C Mika Zibanejad (six assists, seven points)
• Shesterkin (.931 save percentage)

Analysis: Both teams entered this series off of long breaks after New York swept the Washington Capitals and went a week in between games. Meanwhile, Carolina had not played since their 6-3 victory over the New York Islanders in Game 5 on Tuesday. The play could be sloppy in the first little bit of this series and whichever team is able to shake off the rust will have a step up on the other.

Andersen has been sensational dating back to the end of the regular season as he went a league-best 9-1-0 with a .951 save percentage, 1.30 goals-against average, and one shutout from March 7 onward. These two teams, who met in the 2020 Stanley Cup Qualifiers (swept by Carolina) and 2022 second round (won by New York in 7), are very close on defense and up front and goaltending may very well determine the winner of this series. Shesterkin is one of the league’s best and showed it in Round One vs. Washington so Andersen must keep up his strong play and be even better than he was against the Islanders.

While Carolina had no problem getting through the Island, they did it despite killing off just .727 of their penalties after finishing first in the NHL with an .864 efficiency during the regular season. They likely cannot afford to have their unit slump like that against a Rangers team that ranked third league-wide with a .264 power-play efficiency in the regular season and converted at a .375 rate in the first round (though, against a Capitals team that had a very banged up blueline) as showed in Game 1, when the Rangers scored on both of their power plays en route to a 4-3 win.

Carolina needs improvement from Aho (2-1-3 in five games in Round One), Burns (1-1-2, .4592 five-on-five expected goals-for percentage), and Slavin (0-1-1, .486 five-on-five expected goals-for percentage), who all finished among the team’s top-three in ice time vs. the Islanders, to have to a chance against the Rangers as Zibanejad, Trocheck, Panarin (2-1-3), Jack Roslovic (2-2-4), Barclay Goodrow (1-2-3), and Kreider (2-1-3) all had productive series against Washington. Aho notched two assists, Slavin earned a goal, and Burns tallied a helper in Game 1. The Islanders had the fewest wins of any team to qualify for the postseason and the series Carolina’s big guns had in the first round is not going to cut it against the Presidents’ Trophy winners.

Betting Odds (BetMGM), pre-Game 1 – New York: +130, Carolina: -155

Prediction: New York in 7

Atlantic #1 Florida Panthers vs. Atlantic #2 Boston Bruins

Regular-season leaders:

FLA

• RW Sam Reinhart (57 goals, 94 points)
• LW Matthew Tkachuk (62 assists, 88 points)
• C Aleksander Barkov (1.10 points-per-game)
• D Brandon Montour (23:27 average TOI/game)
• G Sergei Bobrovsky (36 wins)

BOS

• RW David Pastrnak (47 goals, 63 assists, 110 points)
• LW Brad Marchand (29 goals, 67 points)
• C Charlie Coyle (25 goals)
• D Charlie McAvoy (24:50 average TOI/game)
• G Jeremy Swayman (25 wins)

First-round leaders:

FLA

• Tkachuk (six assists, nine points)
• LW Carter Verhaeghe (five goals, nine points)
• Montour (23:31 average TOI/game)
• Bobrovsky (.896 save percentage)

BOS

• Pastrnak (three goals)
• Marchand (three goals, five assists, eight points)
• C Trent Frederic (three goals)
• LW Jake DeBrusk (three goals)
• McAvoy (26:51 average TOI/game)
• Swayman (.950 save percentage)

Analysis: For the second consecutive season, the two up-and-coming Atlantic Division rivals will meet in the postseason after 17th-seeded Florida upset the best regular-season team of all-time in Game 7 despite going down 3-1 last season. Both teams advanced after defeating their biggest rivals in the opening round with Florida, who is 16-6 (.727 winning percentage) in the postseason since falling to Boston in Game 4 last Spring, beating the Tampa Bay Lightning in five games and Boston ousting the Toronto Maple Leafs in seven.

Florida needs Bobrovsky to improve from his performance in the first round, where he allowed 14 goals-against. The good news for his team is that he bounced back in the closing game of the series, where he stopped 31 of 32 (.969). Bobrovsky had his best regular season as a Panther, recording a .915 save percentage (tied for seventh with Boston’s Linus Ullmark) and 2.37 goals-against average (third) in 58 games. Swayman (.950 save percentage, 1.49 goals-against average in six) had a sensational series against Toronto, so Bobrovsky must be sharper.

Boston had an NHL-best average of 1.71 goals-against per game in the first round, a category where Florida was tied for the lead in during the regular season (2.41). The two teams had the same penalty-killing rate (.825 — tied for sixth) over the regular season and Boston was second in the first round (.952). However, Florida’s penalty kill fell off against Tampa Bay (.800) and must return to form against a Bruins power play that converted at a.353 rate vs. Toronto. Whichever team that stays the most structured defensively will win this series.

Florida had five of their six defensemen who dressed against Tampa Bay tally at least two points and three had a goal. Forsling led the way with four assists. Meanwhile, Boston had just two goals from their blueline and no one average 0.60 points-per-game (which Florida had two of). While both teams are very organized defensively, Boston’s defensemen must find a way to jump in to the offense better than they did against Toronto with many weapons on the Panthers’ backend.

Betting Odds (BetMGM) – Florida: -175, Boston: +145

Prediction: Florida in 5

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Central #1 Dallas Stars vs. Central #2 Colorado Avalanche

Regular-season leaders:

DAL

• C Wyatt Johnston (32 goals)
• C Roope Hintz (30 goals)
• LW Jason Robertson (51 assists, 80 points)
• D Miro Heiskanen (24:32 average TOI/game)
• G Jake Oettinger (35 wins)

COL

• C Nathan MacKinnon (51 goals, 89 assists, 140 points)
• RW Mikko Rantanen (42 goals, 104 points)
• D Cale Makar (69 assists, 90 points, 24:46 average TOI/game)
• G Alexandar Georgiev (38 wins)

First-round leaders:

DAL

• Johnston (four goals, seven points)
• Heiskanen (four assists, five points, 27:26 average TOI/game)
• Robertson (three goals, five points)
• Oettinger (.925 save percentage)

COL

• RW Valeri Nichushkin (seven goals)
• LW Arturri Lehkonen (five goals, eight points)
• MacKinnon (seven assists, nine points)
• Rantanen (seven assists, nine points)
• Makar (even assists, nine points, 24:47 average TOI/game)
• Georgiev (.900 save percentage)

Analysis: Georgiev bounced back from an atrocious Game 1 against the Winnipeg Jets, posting a .940 save percentage and 2.00 goals-against average in the final four games of the series. The 28-year-old finished the regular season with an .897 save percentage and 3.02 goals-against average in 63 games. Colorado needs Georgiev to maintain the level he found in Round One against a Dallas team that averaged 3.59 goals-per-game (third) in the regular season.

All of Colorado’s big guns had sensational first rounds, especially MacKinnon and Rantanen after each had career regular seasons. Meanwhile, no Star had as many points as Nichushkin’s goal total. Johnston was fantastic against Vegas but Dallas likely needs more from Robertson, Heiskanen, Roope Hintz (who was held to just one goal in the series), and Joe Pavelski (none) to match Colorado’s offensive punch. While Dallas had 16 players record at least a point in the first round, only three had at least four. Dallas averaged just 2.29 goals-per-game against Vegas, which is simply not good enough vs. Colorado.

The penalty kill could be a major factor in this series after Colorado went .769 against Winnipeg and Dallas killed off just .75 of Vegas’ power plays. However, that will be no walk in the park for either team as Colorado scored on .375 of their man advantages in the first round while Dallas converted on .286 of theirs. Dallas averaged the fewest penalties taken per game (4:17) in seven outings so it is arguably more important for Colorado to capitalize on their opportunities but special teams will be a key to victory for both teams.

Sticking to a defensive structure is going to be critical for Colorado, who finished with an NHL-average 3.07 goals-against per game over the regular season and gave up an average of 3.00 against Winnipeg (though, 2.00 after a 7-6 loss in Game 1). Colorado buckled down after the opening game against Winnipeg, finishing the first round with a 10.37 expected goals-against (third among teams to advance). Winnipeg did not have as much offensive depth nor firepower that Dallas does meaning that Colorado likely cannot afford to give up north of three per game and must keep up their commitment level.

Betting Odds (BetMGM) – Dallas: -125, Colorado: +105

Prediction: Dallas in 6

Pacific #1 Vancouver Canucks vs. Pacific #2 Edmonton Oilers

Regular-season leaders:

VAN

• RW Brock Boeser (40 goals)
• C J.T. Miller (37 goals, 66 assists, 103 points)
• C Elias Pettersson (34 goals, 55 assists, 89 points)
• D Quinn Hughes (75 assists, 92 points, 24:41 average TOI/game)
• G Thatcher Demko (35 wins)

EDM

• LW Zach Hyman (54 goals)
• C Leon Draisaitl (41 goals, 106 points)
• C Connor McDavid (100 assists, 132 points)
• D Evan Bouchard (23:00 TOI/game)
• G Stuart Skinner (36 wins)

First-round leaders:

VAN

• Boeser (four goals, six points)
• Miller (six points)
• D Quinn Hughes (five assists, 23:06 average TOI/game)
• G Arturs Silovs (.938 save percentage)

EDM

• McDavid (11 assists, 12 points)
• Hyman (seven goals)
• Bouchard (eight assists, nine points, 22:03 average TOI/game)
• Draisaitl (five goals, 10 points)
• Skinner (.910 save percentage)

Analysis: Against a dynamic Oilers offense, Vancouver needs Pettersson to get going after he was held to only three assists, one of which came on the power play, in the team’s six-game first round series win against the Nashville Predators. Edmonton’s top-two centers combined for six goals and 22 points in one fewer game in round one against the Los Angeles Kings. Pettersson averaged over a point-per-game in the regular season and must return to form for a Canucks team already undergoing some adversity.

Vancouver is suffering through a bit of uncertainty in goal as Demko has played only three games since March 10 after suffering two different injuries and Casey DeSmith was dealt with a minor groin strain in Game 3 against Nashville. Silovs performed well to close out the series, including a 28-save shutout in Game 6, but Nashville is not Edmonton, which averaged 3.56 goals-per-game and struck on .263 of their power plays (both fourth) in the regular season in addition to scoring 22 goals and on .45 of their opportunities on the man advantage in the first round. Edmonton also had the highest shooting percentage at five-on-five in the first round (.1121), so Vancouver must get reliable goaltending whether from Demko, DeSmith, or Silovs to have a chance against a powerhouse.

McDavid leads the postseason in assists and points with Draisaitl, whose goal total is tied for third, right behind him. Hyman’s goal total from the first round tied for the league lead. Edmonton had five players average more than a point-per-game (McDavid, Draisaitl, Bouchard, Hyman: eight, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 1-5-6) and 15 skaters find the scoresheet against Los Angeles. Meanwhile, Vancouver was held to just 13 goals by Nashville, eight of which coming on the power play which is not going to get them past Edmonton.

Edmonton’s penalty kill was perfect against Los Angeles while Vancouver’s .154 power-play efficiency vs. Nashville was significantly down from their .227 conversion rate (which was tied for 10th) in the regular season. Vancouver had just four players (Pettersson, Boeser) notch a point on the man advantage and two with multiple (Hughes, Miller) in the first round while each player Edmonton’s entire first unit had more than that (McDavid: nine, Draisaitl: seven, Bouchard: five, Nugent-Hopkins/Hyman: three each). The power play could give Vancouver a big boost in this series with Demko possibly out, and they must take advantage.

Betting Odds (BetMGM) – Vancouver: +200, Edmonton: -250

Prediction: Edmonton in 6

By Harrison Brown