We continue our analysis of the performance of the Washington Capitals forward group for the 2022-23 season by taking a closer look at the performance of each and every line combination deployed for each individual Capitals forward over the course of the season.
The refined look attempts to glean additional insight into what worked and what didn’t work, on a line-by-line case, and assist in identifying specific “needs” the team will have for the upcoming season.
Previous Line Assessments:
- Alex Ovechkin
- Evgeny Kuznetsov
- Nicklas Backstrom
- Tom Wilson
- T.J. Oshie
- Nic Dowd
- Sonny Milano
- Dylan Strome
- Nicolas Aube-Kubel
Today’s focus is on Anthony Mantha. Mantha recorded 11 goals and 16 assists in 67 games played for the Capitals last season. He recorded a personal expected goals for percentage of 52.68% on the season.
ALL LINES DEPLOYED
The following graph plots all of the line combinations deployed with Mantha for the 2022-23 season at five-on-five (sans lines that included Marcus Johansson, Lars Eller and Garnet Hathaway).
The graph includes the total time each line was on the ice (TOI), the percentage of offensive zone faceoffs each line was on the ice for (OZFO%), the expected goals differential (xGF – xGA) and the expected goals for percentage (xGF%) deployed at five-on-five. [Click to enlarge].
[The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and the NoVa Caps Advanced Analytics Model (NCAAM). If you’d like to learn more about the statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL Analytics Glossary]
Note: The thin horizontal red line above bifurcates the positive and negative expected goals for percentages for all of the line combinations.
WHAT WORKED
The Smith-Kuznetsov-Mantha line was Mantha’s best line last season, posting an expected goals for percentage of 54.58% in a little over 42 minutes of time on ice at five-on-five, all while seeing a majority of their zone starts in the defensive zone.
The Smith-Backstrom-Mantha line also worked well for Mantha, although the line saw a majority of their shift starts in the offensive zone.
Once again a line with Sonny Milano stands out, as the Milano-Kuznetsov-Mantha line did well, and was also Mantha’s most consistent line combination over the course of the season.
It should also be noted, for whatever it’s worth, that Milano and Smith were on four of Mantha’s top-six performing lines
WHAT DIDN’T WORK
The Oshie-Kuznetsov-Mantha line was given significant ice time but the performance never really materialized. However, it should be noted that the trio saw a majority of the starts in the defensive zone.
CONTEXT AND CAVEATS
As we noted in several of our in-season analysis posts, Mantha did ok fairly well at generating positive possession, but it was his finishing that ultimately weighed him down this season. The scoring never materialized.
Mantha shot the puck 108 times at five-on-five, which was fourth-most on the team, but ended the season with a shooting percentage of 9.26%, 13th on the Capitals.
Mantha has one year left at $5.7 million. However, considering Capitals general manager Brian MacLellan’s end-of-season edict to upgrade the Capitals top-six forwards, you have to wonder if the Capitals will look to make a change now rather than ride-out the final year of his deal. Now’s the time to deal him (before 2024 trade deadline at the latest), if you want to get something for him.
By Jon Sorensen