Last week we continued our analysis of the performance of the Washington Capitals forward group for the 2022-23 season by taking a closer look at the performance of each and every line combination as they relate to each individual forward. The refined look attempts to glean additional insight into the team’s specific needs for the upcoming season.
We began the deeper dive on Capitals forwards with captain Alex Ovechkin’s line combinations. On Saturday we reviewed each and every line combination deployed with Evgeny Kuznetsov and yesterday we took a look at the performance of each and every line combination deployed with T.J. Oshie. Today we review each and every line combination deployed with Nicklas Backstrom last season.
The following graph plots all forward line combinations deployed with Nicklas Backstrom for the 2022-23 season at five-on-five (sans lines that included Marcus Johansson, Lars Eller and Garnet Hathaway).
The graph includes the total time each line was on the ice (TOI), the percentage of offensive zone faceoffs each line was on the ice for (OZFO%), the expected goals differential (xGF – xGA) and the expected goals for percentage (xGF%) deployed at five-on-five. [Click to enlarge].
[The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and the NoVa Caps Advanced Analytics Model (NCAAM). If you’d like to learn more about the statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL Analytics Glossary]
Note: The thin horizontal red line above bifurcates the positive and negative expected goals for percentages for all of the line combinations.
WHAT WORKED
Backstrom finished the season with a very pedestrian expected goals for percentage of 50.30% at five-on-five. It should be noted that he averaged just over 50% offensive zone faceoffs (a big reduction for Backstrom), indicating the team was trusting (or testing) him in the defensive zone more than usual. The number is also indicative of a bottom six forward.
The Milano-Backstrom-Wilson line was Backstrom’s best line as far as possession metrics are concerned. The trio was deployed for 49.05 of time on ice at five-on-five, recording and expected goals for percentage of 68.75%.
The Smith-Backstrom-Mantha line combination also produced positive results and was the second-most common line deployments for Backstrom.
It should be added that the Protas-Backstrom-Oshie pairing produced prositve results as well, but was deployed for just 27.32 of five-on-five ice time.
WHAT DIDN’T WORK
As we noted in our initial end-of-season performance review for Backstrom, while it was great for the Capitals and fans too see Backstrom back on the ice, it wasn’t the same Backstrom we’ve become accustomed to seeing in red, white, and blue since the 2007-08 season.
Other than the lines above, not much else worked for Backstrom, as you can glean from the graph above. Former head coach Peter Laviolette gave extended time to the Sheary-Backstrom-Smith line combination, but it just didn’t work, posting and expected goals for percentage of 30.05%
Backstrom was productive while playing in the bottom six. The rub is his pay check.
CAVEATS AND CONTEXT
This past summer, Nicklas Backstrom decided to take on an intensive and potentially career-impacting hip resurfacing surgery. By all accounts the surgery went well, as he eventually out-performed the odds of returning to the ice during the 2022-23 season. He ended up suiting up for the Capitals in 39 games.
In his breakdown day interview, Backstrom mentioned that he was optimistic about his future performance, since he’ll be able to get a full training session in this off-season. General Manager Brian MacLellan didn’t share in his optimism, effectively saying that he doesn’t know how much better Backstrom gets with the off-season training and that Backstrom will have to make a decision on his career prior to training camp.
Next we will take a look at the performance of Anthony Mantha’s lines. We will ultimately construct the optimal line combinations for the Capitals at the end of this evaluation.
By Jon Sorensen