Late last month we took a look at the performance of each and every forward line combination that was deployed by the Washington Capitals over the course of the 2022-23 season. As we begin to further drill down on what worked and what didn’t work, in order to better understand the Capitals player needs this off-season, we can begin by looking at all of the line combinations deployed for each individual player and the overall performance of each of those line combinations.
The following graph plots each and every forward line combination deployed with Alex Ovechkin for the 2022-23 season (sans lines that included Marcus Johansson, Lars Eller and Garnet Hathaway).
The graph includes the total time each line was on the ice (TOI), the percentage of offensive zone faceoffs each line was on the ice for (OZFO%), the expected goals differential (xGF – xGA) and the expected goals for percentage (xGF%) deployed at five-on-five. [Click to enlarge].
[The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and the NoVa Caps Advanced Analytics Model (NCAAM). If you’d like to learn more about the statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL Analytics Glossary]
The thin horizontal red line above bifurcates the positive and negative expected goals for percentages for all of the line combinations.
WHAT WORKED
Line combinations above of the thin red line indicate line combinations that posted positive (greater than 50%) expected goals for percentages and expected goals differentials. Purging lines with minimum time on ice, we see a few line combinations that worked well for Ovechkin.
The Ovechkin-Strome-Sheary line combination was the most common line deployed that had positive results, booking 268 minutes of five-on-five ice time and an xGF% of 52.36%. We will likely see more of that line IF the Capitals are able to-re-sign Connor Sheary.
The Ovechkin-Strome-Aube-Kubel line was the second-most deployed Ovechkin line combination that yielded positive results. We will definitely see more of that line combination in the 2023-24 season.
The Ovechkin-Strome-Oshie line only totaled 26 minutes of five-on-five ice time but was also very efficient. Regardless, Ovechkin-Strome is the common theme in all of the aforementioned successful line combinations.
WHAT DIDN’T WORK
Former Capitals bench boss Peter Laviolette kept trying the Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Wilson line, which has been decent in recent seasons, but not for the 2022-23 season, recording a cumulative expected goals for percentage of just 36.8% and the team’s worst expected goals differential of -2.09 at five-on-five.
The Ovechkin-Strome-Wilson line was also given ample chance to prove their way, but fell well below 50% in 74 minutes of five on five ice time.
CONTEXT AND CAVEATS
It can be argued that Tom Wilson and Nicklas Backstrom played less than half a season, and therefore their metrics are somewhat incomplete.
It should be noted that line combinations deployed for just a few minutes of ice time but produced excellent numbers shouldn’t be completely ignored, should be further explored, but for the purposes on this simple stats snapshot, were deemed irrelevant.
‘It’s likely that the Capitals new head coach will run through quite a few of the combinations list above to see what works, but hopefully the new head coach will reference past data sets. At least to start.
Next up, we will take a look at each and every line combination deployed with Evgeny Kuznetsov.
By Jon Sorensen