Earlier this week we continued our analysis of the performance of the Washington Capitals forward group over the course of the 2022-23 season by taking a closer look at the performance of each and every line combination as they relate to individual players. The refined look attempts to glean additional insight into the team’s specific needs for the upcoming season.
We began the deeper dive on Capitals forwards with captain Alex Ovechkin’s line combinations. Yesterday we reviewed each and every line combination deployed with Evgeny Kuznetsov, and today we take a look at the performance of each and every line combination deployed with T.J. Oshie.
The following graph plots all forward line combinations deployed with T.J. Oshie for the 2022-23 season at five-on-five (sans lines that included Marcus Johansson, Lars Eller and Garnet Hathaway).
The graph includes the total time each line was on the ice (TOI), the percentage of offensive zone faceoffs each line was on the ice for (OZFO%), the expected goals differential (xGF – xGA) and the expected goals for percentage (xGF%) deployed at five-on-five. [Click to enlarge].
[The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and the NoVa Caps Advanced Analytics Model (NCAAM). If you’d like to learn more about the statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL Analytics Glossary]
Note: The thin horizontal red line above bifurcates the positive and negative expected goals for percentages for all of the line combinations.
WHAT WORKED
Oshie had somewhat of a relative sub-par campaign for the 2022-23 season, finishing with a personal expected goals for percentage of 46.08%. Regardless, he did manage 19 goals and 16 assists in just 58 games played and was still 6th on the team in total points. Not bad, considering all of his injuries.
The Milano-Strome-Oshie line was arguably Oshie’s best line last season. If you’ve read either of the previous posts, you know that Milano keeps popping up when identifying top line performances. He was used in quite a few line combinations and more often than not the line thrived. The same can be said for Dylan Strome.
However, former Capitals head coach Peter Laviolette and the coaches deployed Oshie with Milano and Evgeny Kuznetsov for 85.67 of time on ice at five-on-five this season, the most for any Oshie line. The Milano-Kuznetsov-Oshie line did ok, coming in just above 50%.
The Ovechkin-Strome-Oshie line also worked well, but was deployed for just 26.28 of time on ice at five-on-five. It’s somewhat curious why this line wasn’t given more minutes, considering their proven success.
WHAT DIDNT WORK
After being limited to just 44 games played in the 2021-22 season, mostly due to injury, Oshie once again dealt with injuries over the course of his 2022-23 campaign. He left the Capitals preseason game against the St. Louis Blues with an upper body injury on October 5, but was able to return for opening night against the Bruins on October 12.
Oshie then left the Predators game on October 29 with a lower body injury and did not return to the lineup until November 23 against the Flyers.
Oshie also suffered a non-contact upper body injury against the Maple Leafs on December 17 that had him miss the remainder of December. He also missed the last few games of the season.
As for line combinations that didn’t really work, Laviolette and company deployed the Oshie-Kuznetsov-Mantha line for 32.57 of time on ice at five-on-five, but they never really found much success, recording a xGF% of 42.8%.
CAVEATS AND CONTEXT
Oshie may never play more than 50 games again, but in the grand scheme of things, that might be ok, as long as he’s ready for any potential postseason work. He continues to prove he is a difference maker in and off the ice for the team when he does play in games, and that’s where his value lies. The team will just need to be careful with his minutes from here on out.
By Jon Sorensen