We continue our analysis of the performance of the Washington Capitals forward group for the 2022-23 season by taking a closer look at the performance of each and every line combination deployed last season for each individual forward.
The refined look attempts to glean additional insight into what worked and what didn’t work on a line-by-line case, and assist in identifying specific “needs” the team might have for the upcoming season.
Previous Line Assessments:
Today’s focus is on Dylan Strome. Strome recorded 23 goals and 42 assists in 81 games played for the Capitals last season. He finished with a personal expected goals for percentage of 52.51%, fourth-best on the Capitals.
ALL LINES DEPLOYED
The following graph plots all of the line combinations deployed with Strome for the 2022-23 season at five-on-five (sans lines that included Marcus Johansson, Lars Eller and Garnet Hathaway). The graph includes the total time each line was on the ice (TOI), the percentage of offensive zone faceoffs each line was on the ice for (OZFO%), the expected goals differential (xGF – xGA) and the expected goals for percentage (xGF%) deployed at five-on-five. [Click to enlarge].
[The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and the NoVa Caps Advanced Analytics Model (NCAAM). If you’d like to learn more about the statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL Analytics Glossary]
Note: The thin horizontal red line above bifurcates the positive and negative expected goals for percentages for all of the line combinations.
WHAT WORKED
The Ovechkin-Strome-Sheary line became a mainstay for the Capitals last season, mostly because it was Ovechkin’s most efficient line combinati0n. The trio logged 268 minutes of time on ice at five-on-five and generated an expected goals for percentage of 52.4%. That’s pretty good. However, It will be interesting to see what the Capitals do should Connor Sheary not re-sign with the team this off-season.
They could go with the Ovechkin-Strome-Aube-Kubel top line, which recorded an even better efficiency (68.10%) but spent less than a quarter of the time on ice together at five-on-five (43.8 minutes). Aube-Kubel was also excellent on the fourth line, but could theoretically be replaced by Beck Malenstyn.
The Ovechkin-Strome-Oshie line also worked well, but in very limited minutes. The Milano-Strome-Oshie was given more time on ice but with expected goals for percentage of 51.2%.
WHAT DIDN’T WORK
Former Capitals head coach Peter Laviolette kept giving the Ovechkin-Strome-Wilson line time on ice together, but to no avail, as the trio logged an underwhelming expected goals for percentage of 41.6% in 74 minutes of time on ice at five-on-five. I would expect to see this line combination be given another shot under the next coaching regime. However, it should be reiterated that Wilson worked best with Nicklas Backstrom at center last season.
The Sheary-Strome-Wilson was also given significant ice time last season, with somewhat disappointing results.
CONTEXT AND CAVEATS
We will most likely see the return of Ovechkin and Strome on the top line next season, but who plays right wing is still very much an unknown. If Sheary is not re-signed and no other right wingers are brought in during the off-season, look for Aube-Kubel to step into the role, at least initially. Also look for Oshie to get time on the top line and it’s very likely the new coaches will revisit Ovechkin-Strome-Wilson in hopes of finding better performance than last season.
Next up is Anthony Mantha. At the end of this exercise we will compile the optimal line combinations for the Capitals from the 2022-23 season.
By Jon Sorensen