We continue our analysis of the performance of the Washington Capitals forward group for the 2022-23 season by taking a closer look at the performance of each and every line combination deployed last season as they relate to each individual forward. The refined look attempts to glean additional insight into what worked and what didn’t work and identify specific “needs” the team might have for the upcoming season.
We began the deeper dive on Capitals forwards last week by first looking at Alex Ovechkin’s line combinations. Since the initial assessment we have also reviewed each and every line combination deployed for Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson, and T.J. Oshie. Today we review each and every line combination deployed with Nic Dowd last season.
Dowd recorded 13 goals and 12 assists in 65 games played last season. He ended his 2022-23 campaign with a personal expected goals for percentage of 52.21%, which was 6th-best on the Capitals. It should be added that Dowd lost his steady right-winger in Garnet Hathaway at the trade deadline, but as you will see, the fourth line still did well with the replacements. Dowd also uncharacteristically dealt with a significant injury last season.
The following graph plots all forward line combinations deployed with Dowd for the 2022-23 season at five-on-five (sans lines that included Marcus Johansson, Lars Eller and Garnet Hathaway). The graph includes the total time each line was on the ice (TOI), the percentage of offensive zone faceoffs each line was on the ice for (OZFO%), the expected goals differential (xGF – xGA) and the expected goals for percentage (xGF%) deployed at five-on-five. [Click to enlarge].
[The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and the NoVa Caps Advanced Analytics Model (NCAAM). If you’d like to learn more about the statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL Analytics Glossary]
Note: The thin horizontal red line above bifurcates the positive and negative expected goals for percentages for all of the line combinations.
WHAT WORKED
The Sheary-Dowd-Protas line was by far Dowd’s most efficient line, but was only deployed for 21.35 of time on ice at five-on-five. Once again we see the Sheary affect on a line and their overall performance.
The Protas-Dowd-Aube-Kubel line was Dowd’s most frequently deployed line combination with above 50% expected goals for percentage. This could very likely be the Capitals fourth line on opening night in October.
WHAT DIDN’T WORK
The Sheary-Dowd-Aube-Kubel line was Dowd’s most consistent line last season, logging 69.23 of time on ice at five on five. However, the line did not,perform as well as other fourth-line combination from last season, as well as season’s past, posting an underwhelming 45.10 expected goals for percentage.
CONTEXT AND CAVEATS
The Capitals fourth line was arguably the Capitals best line under the Laviolette administration, at least with regards to possession metrics. The fourth line’s primary job is to neutralize the oppositions top line, and generate offense when possible, and the fourth line has done that consistently well.
It will be interesting to see how the fourth line transitions under a new head coach, and what the line will look like on opening night. I’m putting my money on Protas-Dowd-Aube-Kubel getting the job to start the season, but don’t be shocked if Beck Malenstyn is also in the mix beginning in training camp.
We will next look at line deployments for Anthony Mantha last season, and wrap the series of posts with the overall optimized lines.
By Jon Sorensen