With the Washington Capitals 2023-24 campaign now in the rear view mirror, Caps Nation next turns its sights to the 2024 offseason and the opportunities for upgrading the team, primarily the 2024 NHL Entry Draft, which begins on June 28th, and the opening of free agency, which starts on July 1.
Prior to entering any offseason planning, it’s useful to take a “big picture” look at the organization with regards to player depth, ages and potential at each position. This can be more easily understood through the following table. [Click to enlarge].
It should be noted that many players play more than one position. The table above represents each players primary position or most recent position during the 2023-24 season. Additionally, the table and this post do not include goaltenders, which will be covered in a follow-up post.
There are a number of assumptions that were made when creating the table above. Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs) were not included. The players include:
- Max Pacioretty
- Nicolas Aubé-Kubel
- Lucas Johansen (UFA-G6)
- Joe Snively
- Matthew Phillips (UFA-G6)
- Chase Priskie
The table does include restricted free agents (RFA’s). It’s conceivable that one or more of the following are not re-signed, but typically a majority of RFA’s are re-signed. They include:
- Connor McMichael
- Beck Malenstyn
- Hardy Haman Aktell
- Ethan Frank
- Riley Sutter
- Alex Limoges
Finally, as always, NoVa Caps considers a “prospect” to be any player signed or drafted by the Capitals but not on the Capitals team, and is not age dependent. They are a “prospect” to make the team.
NOTABLE DEPTH DEFICIENCIES
Blueline Pipeline
The Capitals blue line continues to be age-heavy on the right side. Organizationally, the Capitals defensive depth is very thin and lacks NHL-caliber talent in the middle ranks (Hershey). With the exception of Vinny Iorio, and a long shot for Hardy Haman Aktell, the cupboard is relatively bare. The years of drafting potential scoring forwards with top picks was needed, but now that focus is showing up in lack of depth on the blueline.
Further down in Juniors, it looks like Ryan Chesley is the only player (right now) ready to make jump to the pros (Hershey). Look for the draft to start addressing that. [Click to enlarge].
Screen cap: Cap Friendly
Forward Looking
The lack of scoring this past season has to also be mentioned, although the “need” may not jump off the page in the table above. The question of whether the Capitals have enough NHL-talent is a valid one. Look for free agency to address that, along with adding immediate help on the blueline.
Assuming that Ivan Miroshnichenko eventually makes the jump to the Capitals, the organizational depth begins to thin out very quickly on the left side as well. Andrew Cristall could be an answer there, and it’s no doubt why the Capitals signed Zac Funk this season.
The right side in Washington needs reinforcements. Tom Wilson and Sonny Milano should be in place for several seasons to come, but TJ Oshie’s injury woes are likely drawing his career to a close. The Capitals will need to find two solid right siders moving forward. Look for free agency to provide one. Ethan Frank has demonstrated the ability to score at the AHL level, but it feels like the Capitals have already made a decision on him. (No playing time in Washington, even when there was a need). Maybe his 5’-9” size is a deterrent. Pierrick Dube got a short look but Bogdan Trineyev may be the wild card, another 1-2 years down the line.
Connor McMichael and Hendrix Lapierre will get every opportunity to lock down 2C and 3C this coming season. Whether they thrive or just survive will be the question. Nic Dowd has been excellent as the Capitals 4th line center, defending against the league’s top forwards, but his age is a factor. The next in line for 4th-line center is Riley Sutter. He possess many the skills you need (good at draws, good defensively, good on the penalty kill) but is he ready for the NHL? The answer remains to be seen.
By Jon Sorensen
Good article. It’s cool to see the depth all laid out like this. I like Aktell’s potential. I expect him to be a solid bottom 4 D man.
We are seriously lacking star power. Ryan Leonard has a great chance to become a 30+ goal scorer who plays well all over the ice. I see 25 to 35 goal potential in Miro. So those kids are exciting. But BMac has to draft some stars soon. Who is the Caps’ best drafted player in the BMac era? We need to turn the heat up on BMac.
Big money free agent signings almost never work out. We got lucky with Orpik and Niskanen. But don’t forget Dimitri Mironov.
Thanks Lance. I agree with you too, the void of star power or top tier players is interesting and worth a deeper dive for an article. Still time for certain players to make another step up but the concern is there.
Yep. This is why I suggested recently, commenting on the article ranking BMac’s performance, to assess not only the moves he’s made, but also the ones he didn’t make (but could have). The methodology for that needs to be worked out, but it should be quite representative and a lot of fun! 😁
It’s true that we’re lacking in star power coming up the ranks, but in BMac’s defense we haven’t had many picks in the upper part of the 1st round in recent years (which is usually what you need to get them). He may have snagged a good one in Leonard and I like his taking Miro, who fell to us due to health concerns.
There are some guys from lower down in the prospect rankings who turn out to be top stars (Pasta), but if it was “known” that they would be that good they wouldn’t have fallen down so far. I would think BMac’s picks need to be judged based on where we were picking.
The only way to have changed our pick location would have been to have blown up the team sometime around 2020 or so in order to tank and get high picks. Some on here have been advocating that but that’s a different issue than BMac not having selected star power players.
I’d also join in the thanks to Jon for presenting this and the charts – it gives us a clear picture of the landscape of where the organization is as a whole.
This is absolutely correct! Projecting 18 year-olds is tough enough, but the number of 30-goal-scorers who fall out of the top 5 in any draft is vanishingly small.
Washington has actually done very well over the past two decades taking chances on players (usually Russians) who fall to them in the bottom of the first round. If you want a high probability of drafting superstars, you have to lose a lot for several years like Toronto, Edmonton, Florida, etc. did. But as those teams have also demonstrated, drafting superstars doesn’t guarantee you’ll win in the playoffs… Maybe this year for Edmonton or FL, but as much as some think we’ve been tortured by the Caps, at least we aren’t Leafs’ fans…
Note that the Caps have also been very good at finding useful players — not stars, but very useful — in lower rounds and via trades and free agency. They just lack the truly elite players who are found at the top of the first round, because we haven’t picked there.
GMBM and his team are doing a solid job.
Damn, I forgot to put my name in again.
The above marginally thoughtful (I hope) but overly long comment (as usual) was from me.
Thanks Dave!
As I noted, you echoed, the Caps have been looking for scoring forwards in the last few drafts, and rightfully so, but it’s tough picking in the bottom third every year. I like that Mac took flyers on players such as Lapierre (neck) and Miroshnichenko (cancer) who had questions regarding health, in hopes of scoring big. The overall outcome of those picks still remains but I like the strategy.
I love BMac but championship teams find a way to acquire stars in the draft. Since 2015, our first round picks have been Samsonov, LuJo, Alexeev, McMichael, Lapierre, Miro, Leonard. The first 3 picks haven’t panned out. The most recent 4 are to good to great. I just think a GM has to come up with creative ways to trade up into the top 15 to get prospects you really like. You’re not always gonna hit but we spent 7 first rounders (2015-2021) and have no stars to show for them.
This is a great way to simply see where the team is with potential players to feed the Caps. Simple and easy to read and understand. I look forward to seeing how this changes if/when GMBM makes some moves re: draft/trades this summer. Thanks.
Thank you, Rotating Earth. Appreciate it and all of your comments on our posts along the way.
Good article Jon. You always break things down well. I think you have nailed the holes and needs. Hopefully some of that draft capital can be used for some defensive depth. I would like to see the goaltending depth at some point as well. That is an area the Caps have developed well for many years. Looks like its happening again.
Thank you, “Anon”, greatly appreciate your comments.
Leonard is a potential superstar at RW, but he appears to be staying in school for another year, at least. Though there are rumors swirling around that he might be talked into leaving BC this year if Smith leaves.
Based on what I’ve seen from the Bears this postseason, Miroshnichenko will slot in just fine at 3LW with future upward potential, and Trineyev looks REALLY promising as 4RW. Trineyev has size, speed, some skills, and plays a really solid 200-ft game. Very impressive so far — in that 4RW role. He won’t be replacing Ovechkin…
Sutter might also be a possibility for 4RW, but we haven’t seen him in the playoffs this year. He played great last postseason, and had a solid regular season this year as a 4th liner. Again, he isn’t a star, but he might be a very useful player as a filler at bottom-6 C or RW next year.
Iorio and Chesley are both likely to become dependable NHL RDs. Iorio has looked solid in his few games for Washington, and Chesley has all the tools necessary to be the type of net-front-clearing defender the Caps need. Neither one of these guys is Cale Makar… but you don’t find Makars where the Caps draft.
Other than that, and beyond those that Jon has on the current roster, I agree there is little top-6/top pair potential in the system. Lots of excellent — but undersized — AHL forwards (Frank, Sgarbossa, Dube, Limoges, etc. ), plus a few totally unproven kids like Cristall, Suzdalev and Funk who might develop into dependable NHL top-6 wings… or not…. There are also a bunch of defenders who are current AHL lifers (e.g., McIlrath, Ness) and a couple of guys who are likely to become AHL lifers at best (Gucciardi, LeMay, Allen, Johnson).
Frank is a mystery to me. NHL++ speed and shot, but small, not overly committed to defending, and prone to disappearing. If he has the drive, he can overcome his size and be a potential NHL contributor. But he’s on the wrong side of 25, and I have to wonder whether he has what it takes mentally to be successful above the AHL.
Haman-Aktell has some offensive upside, but he is a weak one-on-one defender. If the Caps played a zone system he might fit better, but they don’t, so he doesn’t. He might improve his defensive play enough to become an NHL contributor, but he isn’t likely to ever be a top-pair NHL player.
Then there are a bunch of kids at various levels who at best will be bottom-6/bottom-pair players, but will more likely be AHL lifers who can fill in as emergency callups and not totally embarrass themselves.
Bottom line: there is no superstar 1C or top pair defender in the pipeline, and based on the above, the Caps don’t have the type of prospects or picks that they could trade to get that top-tier-type of player. This year’s draft class is reportedly relatively weak in forwards after Celebrini, so a team picking in the middle of the first round like the Caps will not likely find a 1C, though a future top-pair defender might be available depending on how the picks play out. No matter who they pick the kid probably won’t be in DC for years. So to get a 1C or top defender, they will have to sign them via FA, or lose a bunch of games over the next few years so that they can draft high enough to have a chance of finding a few superstars.
Great breakdown GR!
Excellent and fascinating analysis. I always learn a lot from “Regulars” on the site when it’s time to perform comprehensive Caps roster analysis
There’s more “hope” in this Caps offseason than in 3-5 years past
– Settled on a Head Coach, and a good one
– EOC (End of career) for at least three superstars. Painful but all that Salary gets recycled
– AHL cupboard isn’t totally bare, and a few potential nuggets in Caps Junior collection
– Biggest in my mind is POHO MacLellan processes input from talented staff, avoids maniacal or ego-trip management events
Lots of potential “upside” for Caps roster-building. But they’re going to need some Good Luck and Fortune in the quest. Fewer disastrous injury epidemics would help
Goalie Talk in next segment … but Caps have some good ones
Thanks Gentlemen!
Most people here (a pretty knowledgeable and articulate bunch, unlike other blogs I could name) have already said what I would. But I want to add a few thoughts on prospects:
If you’re putting faith in Suzdalev, you’re probably gonna be disappointed. He was a 20 year old (oldest that a European can be in juniors) on the best regular season team on the WHL. And he only put up about a point a game, while 19 year old Andrew Cristall, on a middling Kelowna Rockets team, averaged almost 2 points per game. Suzdalev skates in a stand-up manner, when he should have his stick on the ice, plays with little passion, and thinks defense is a 4 letter word.
The Caps have a Swedish prospect that almost everyone forgets: Ludwig Persson. I think I may be the only person in the Caps blogosphere to have seen him play. He was drafted in the 3rd round, 85th overall, in 2022, and he’s signed to an ELC. He was, I think, about 7th in league scoring in Finland’s Mestis league in the regular season, and 3rd in playoff scoring, for league champion IPK. Mestis is a men’s league, BTW, so he was a 19/20 year old, excelling against men. He’s very fast, has great playmaking skills, and can score goals, but needs to use his shot more. He’s listed as a C/LW, but played LW when I saw him. I’m hoping he will be in Hershey, this year. It remains to be seen if he can handle the physicality of the AHL. Needs to get stronger.
I have high hopes for Andrew Cristall. I’m hoping he’s one of those, like Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Logan Stankoven (Dallas has a ridiculous record in unearthing 2nd round talent) to become a star, after falling to the 2nd. Cristall is just sick with skill. He holds the puck on a string. In the playoffs, teams just backed off him, preferring to limit his pass options. But he has a lethal shot, too. Really, all that holds him back is his skating. But it IS improving. He needs to get stronger, also. I think he gets the nine game cup of coffee, at the outset of next season, then back to Kelowna.
I’m onboard with a lot of this. We need to get you a job in Ballston.
Thank you for the compliment, but it would take a sweet offer to get me to move back to the DC area. I visited for the Cup parade, in 2018. Left right after the speeches. Not for me anymore.
Some Bears thoughts:
I love Bogdan Trineyev! Terrific bottom six type, with size, some skill, really plays hard. He’s the right stick on the Bears first penalty kill, with Riley out. He’s a player a coach knows won’t hurt his team, unless perhaps he’s too feisty, and takes a dumb penalty. I can see a Caps 4th line of Malenstyn, Sutter, and Trineyev before much longer.
Not impressed with Haman-Aktell. He handles the puck like a grenade sometimes. I think that must be why Nelson paired McIlrath with Ness, in effect demoting HHA from the top shutdown pair, and letting Priskie be the puck mover on that pair. HHA was probably meant to be Gabriel Carlsson’s replacement. He’s not succeeding.
Miro looks more and more comfortable in a North American rink. You gotta remember the kid had cancer treatment, moved to a new country, adjusted to smaller rinks, learned a new language, and played a full season for the first time in years. We’re now getting glimpses of the stud he will soon be.
i know these aren’t prospects, but someone please tell me how getting rid of Radko Gudas and Jonas Siegenthaler made this team better….i mean if we’re going to fire GMBM, those two moves have got to be near the top of his, “i’m a donut” list.
Siegenthaler trade still leaves a bad taste. Laviolette played Chara and gave Siggy very little ice time. Siggy wanted out, and you can’t blame him.
Lavi did that to many younger players, because the pressure to win over-rode the development of guys like Siegs.
I’ve long questioned the roster choices they’ve made in the Ovechkin era. Hoping this off-season doesn’t give me more reason to do so.
McIlrath is under contract as a right defenseman. He’s only a depth piece, but he’s still signed
Will Ethan Frank EVER play for the Washington Capitals?
Caps / Bears franchise exceedingly good at blackballing talented players
And the Matthew Phillips Comedy Hour is still ridiculous
“Matthew Phillips Comedy Hour”? LOL
Didn’t he open for Sonny & Cher, back in the early 70s?
I think the AHL should revamp their playoff format. Play-in rounds are seriously lame. Because of them, these playoffs might go close to the end of June. A 7 game final, like last year’s, would end in the last week of June. There’s no need for more playoff teams. Make the post-season hard to get into, so the regular season has meaning. Enough of these stupid gimmicks.
I’m a big hockey fan, but summer hockey is ridikulus. It’s enough of a fix to have the NHL and AHL end in early to mid-June, then a couple weeks downtime, to gear up for the draft, and free agency. And Canadians have suggested moving the opening day of free agency from July 1, so they can enjoy Canada Day, without being glued to their smartphones, perusing Twitter, for the latest signings.
Rant off
chocolate and white
Wild Times in the NHL Management business
– CAR re-hires Brind’Amour long-term … then GM Waddell abruptly retires (about 8 hours ago)
– Keefe is sacked in TOR, hired by NJD in just a few weeks
– SEA, SJS, TOR and WIN need new coaches. ESPN reminds us that 19 of the 32 NHL teams have changed coaches since 01 January 2023
– Quenneville is the best of the best, but an absurd He Said, He Said “incident” is more important to that Magnificent Moralist Gory the Batmann than winning the Stanley Cup
The real resignation that SHOULD take place is Gory Batmann, the Bête Noir of pro sports
Ooops Forgot about The Chief. Berube is new TOR coach
Another Caps alumni hired as Head Coach
Winnipeg Jets hire Scott Arniel as head coach – Sportsnet
Waddell next GM of Columbus Blue Jackets
CBJ will improve and become much more difficult opponent for Caps
Splendid 3rd Period come-back FLA vs the RAGS. It’s 4-4. We’ll see what the Overtime Gods have to say
Rats! A cheapo deflection and the Rags Win, 5-4
They must be Laving the Rags (again) 😏
I think Ethan F gets a long look in Oct. I also think GMBM can trade up for the guy at U Mich… similar strategy as IM…
The Broken Record continues / continues / continues
I just watched replays of the Jacob Trouba elbow to FLA forward Rodrigues. Typical RAGS in an important game. A Trouba will fling those elbows fearlessly, knowing that “Toronto” and Gory Batmann will have his back
The blatant favoritism toward whomever Gory B likes this week … will continue until the little creep is finally gone. It’s just not a foregone conclusion that a new “Commissioner” won’t be a Corporate Criminal and a game-fixer like Batmann
I’d love to see Mr. Trouba one day in an even-Steven hockey fight with a real enforcer — like Tom Wilson
Here’s a great future survey for NovaCapsFans.com participants:
Tom Wilson elbows an opponent the same way Jacob Trouba just did.
Multiple Choice: Wilson’s suspension length will be
A – 6 games
B – 8 games
C – 10 games
D – 15 games
I’ve got “D”
I hope GMBM trades up assuming its possible… 3 3rds… Can he get to 12?