With a new season on the near horizon, it’s a good time to assess the goaltending situation for each of the teams in the Metropolitan Division. This particular assessment will include last year’s statistics (save percentage, goals against average, etc.) but will also include advanced statistics from Money Puck, such as goals saved above average, goals saved above average per 60, and save percentage above expected.
CAROLINA HURRICANES
Frederick Andersen:
Save Percentage: .903
Goals Against Average: 2.48
Goals Saved Above Expected: -3.5
Goals Saved Above Expected per 60: -.106
Save Percentage Above Expected: -0.002
Andersen was Carolina’s primary goaltender last season. 2022-23 was a relatively subpar season for him, as his save percentage was below his lifetime save percentage of .915 and far below the save percentage he compiled in 2021-22, which was .922. Andersen has generally posted above-average statistics in the past but has been plagued by injuries during the last three seasons.
Photo: The Canadian Press via TSN
Antti Raanta:
Save Percentage: .910
Goals Against Average: 2.23
Goals Saved Above Expected: 1.3
Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 .050
Save Percentage Above Expected: 0.001
Raanta was the 1B of Carolina’s tandem. His save percentage was below his career save percentage is .918. He appears to do better with more frequent work.
Pyotr Kochetkov:
Save Percentage: .909
Goals Against Average: 2.44
Goals Saved Above Expected: 4.9
Goals Saved Above Expected per 60: .209
Save Percentage Above Expected: 0.005
The Canes also have a prospect, Pyotr Kochetkov, in the wings who will likely start the season with Carolina’s AHL affiliate. Last season, he posted a Save Percentage of .909 and Goals Against Average of 2.44.
Assessment: Based on the past performance of their goaltenders, the Hurricanes will get adequate goaltending, at worst, and elite goaltending, at best. One potential concern is that both Andersen and Raanta are over 30 years old. Andersen is under contract through 2024-25. Raanta is under contract through 2023-24. The Canes’ hope is that Kochetkov can develop further and eventually take over as their #1 goaltender.
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS
Elvis Merzlikins:
Save Percentage: .876
Goals Against Average: 4.23
Goals Saved Above Expected: -25.9
Goals Saved Above Expected per 60: -.996
Save Percentage Above Expected: -0.015
The Blue Jackets expect to continue with the goaltending tandem of Elvis Merzlikins and Daniil Tarasov for the 2023-24 season. Joonas Korpisalo was their Number 1 goaltender for much of last season, but the Blue Jackets traded him away. Of their two remaining goaltenders, Merzlikins played in the most games and compiled the second-worst save percentage in the league. He was near the bottom in the advanced goaltending statistics, as well. Merzlikins becomes a free agent after the 2026-27 season.
Photo : Getty Images / Kirk Irwin
Daniil Tarasov:
Save Percentage: .892
Goals Against Average: 3.91
Goals Saved Above Expected: -7.3
Goals Saved Above Expected per 60: -.501
Save Percentage Above Expected: -0.007
Tarasov is expected to be the Blue Jackets’ backup. While Tarasov did not have a great season last season, they hope he can improve with more NHL experience. Tarasov has two more seasons remaining on his entry-level deal.
Assessment: The Blue Jackets’ hope is that either Merzlikins can regain his form from prior seasons, as he has four more years on his current contract, or that Tarasov can earn the #1 goaltending job. Otherwise, the goaltending situation looks dire, and the Blue Jackets could find themselves in the nether regions of the Metropolitan Division again. It should be noted that the team has focused on upgrading their defense this offseason.
NEW JERSEY DEVILS
Vitek Vanacek:
Save Percentage: .911
Goals Against Average: 2.45
Goals Saved Above Expected: 5.1
Goals Saved Above Expected per 60: 105
Save Percentage Above Expected: .002
Vanacek was New Jersey’s primary goaltender during the 2021-22 season. In 2022-23, he played in a career-high number of games. For some reason, he has struggled in the playoffs. His contract expires after 2024-25.
Photo: Saed Hindash | For lehighvalleylive.com
Akira Schmid:
Save Percentage: .922
Goals Against Average: 2.13
Goals Saved Above Expected: 8.2
Goals Saved Above Expected per 60: .546
Save Percentage Above Expected: 0.010
Schmid was a goaltending prospect who earned his way onto the roster during the 2022-23 season. His playoff performance was good enough that the Devils are considering elevating him to the number one goaltending role. He is in the last year of entry-level contract.
Assessment: The Devils can expect to get better than adequate goaltending next season. If Schmidt can continue to post Save Percentages better than.920, he can provide the Devils elite caliber goaltending. His salary will increase once his entry-level contract expires. On the positive side for affordability, the dead cap space from buying our Cory Schneider comes off the books after the 2023-24 season.
NEW YORK ISLANDERS
Ilya Sorokin:
Save Percentage: .924
Goals Against Average: 2.34
Goals Saved Above Expected: .38.7
Goals Saved Above Expected per 60: .647
Save Percentage Above Expected: 0.011
The New York Islanders’ primary goaltender is Ilya Sorokin, who was a finalist for the 2022-23 Vezina Trophy. He ranked near the top in save percentage and goals against. His advanced goaltending statistics are also near the top. The Islanders have him under contract for the next eight seasons.
Photo: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports
Semyon Varlamov:
Save Percentage: .913
Goals Against Average: 2.70
Goals Saved Above Expected: 3.5
Goals Saved Above Expected per 60: .157
Save Percentage Above Expected: 0.003
Semyon Varlamov is the current backup goaltender. The 35-year-old signed a four-year contract on July 1 to remain with the Islanders. He had been a number one goaltender for much of his career.
Assessment: Overall, the Islanders are well covered in goaltending for the next several seasons. The main knock on the Islanders’ goaltending situation is the lengthy contract given to Varlamov as a backup. Varlamov’s contract is a “35 and over contract” and would still count against the salary cap even if he retired.
The Islanders are a relatively old team with numerous players over 35 having lengthy deals which would inhibit a rebuild that may be needed soon. Having an elite goaltender like Sorokin would make it harder for the team to bottom out during a rebuild.
NEW YORK RANGERS
Igor Shesterkin:
Save Percentage: 916
Goals Against Average: 2.48
Goals Saved Above Expected: 28.1
Goals Saved Above Expected per 60: .483
Save Percentage Above Expected: .009
The Rangers’ number one goaltender is Igor Shesterkin. He had a relatively down season in 2022-23. But he won the Vezina Trophy in 2021-22 with an amazing .935 Save Percentage.
Photo: Sarah Stier-USA TODAY Sports
Jonathan Quick:
Save Percentage: .882
Goals Against Average: 3.41
Goals Saved Above Expected: -17.2
Goals Saved Above Expected per 60: -.462
Save Percentage Above Expected: -0.008
Quick, the longtime Los Angeles Kings goaltender, is expected to be Shesterkin’s backup. He began the season with the Los Angeles Kings but lost his job as their #1 goaltender. He was traded to the Columbus Blue Jackets and then to the Las Vegas Knights. As his career winds down, he is looking forward to playing with the team for which he rooted growing up.
Assessment: Overall, the Rangers have an elite Number One goaltender who is under contract for two more seasons. They have a motivated backup in Quick who hopes to revive his career while playing near home.
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS
Carter Hart:
Save Percentage: .907
Goals Against Average: 2.85
Goals Saved Above Expected: 10.3
Goals Saved Above Expected per 60: .195
Save Percentage Above Expected: -.003
Hart’s save percentage in 2022-23 was close to his career save percentage of .906. He has one year left on his contract before becoming a restricted free agent.
Photo: Julio Cortez/AP
Cal Petersen:
Save Percentage: .868
Goals Against Average: 3.75
Goals Saved Above Expected: -9.3
Goals Saved Above Expected per 60: -1.027
Save Percentage Above Expected: -0.018
Petersen is anticipated to be the Flyers’ backup goaltender. The Flyers acquired him in a trade with the Los Angeles Kings. During 2022-23, his performance was poor enough to prompt the Kings to assign him to their AHL affiliate. The Kings had been hoping he could take over the Number One role from an aging Jonathan Quick, which did not happen. The Flyers are hoping for a bounce-back year from him, especially given that he makes 5 million per year. Petersen’s contract has two more seasons to go as he reaches UFA status in 2024-25.
They also have another goaltender in the mix with Felix Sandstrom who is still on an entry-level deal.
Assessment: Overall, the Flyers have a good young goaltender in Carter Hart, except that he has only one year left under team control. They are spending too much money on goaltending, with nearly $9 million paying for both Hart and Petersen.
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
Tristan Jarry:
Save Percentage: .909
Goals Against Average: 2.65
Goals Saved Above Expected: -2.8
Goals Saved Above Expected per 60: -.063
Save Percentage Above Expected: -.001
The Penguins’ current #1 goaltender is Tristan Jarry. His save percentage in 2022-23 was worse than his lifetime save percentage of .916. Jarry recently signed a five-year extension to remain with Pittsburgh.
Photo: Matt Sunday / DKPS
Casey DeSmith:
Save Percentage: .905
Goals Against Average: 3.17
Goals Saved Above Expected: 2.9
Goals Saved Above Expected per 60: 0.084
Save Percentage Above Expected: 0.001
DeSmith was the Penguins’ backup goaltender for the last three seasons and is likely to be their backup goaltender again. His save percentage in 2022-23 was worse than his lifetime save percentage of .912. DeSmith, despite a worse save percentage, has saved more than expected while Jarry has saved less than expected. Given that DeSmith played in a substantial number of games, it could be argued that he should be the number one goaltender instead of Jarry. But Jarry is a few years younger. DeSmith has one year remaining on his contract and would become a free agent.
The Penguins also signed Alex Nedeljkovic who spent much of 2022-23 in the minors but had been Detroit Red Wings regular in 2021-22.
Assessment: Overall, the Penguins can expect adequate but not outstanding goaltending for the coming season.
WASHINGTON CAPITALS
Darcy Kuemper:
Save Percentage: .909
Goals Against Average: 2.87
Goals Saved Above Expected: 8.8
Goals Saved Above Expected per 60: .164
Save Percentage Above Expected: .003
The Capitals’ #1 goaltender in 2022-23 was Darcy Keumper. Keumper’s save percentage for 2022-23 was worse than his lifetime percentage of .916. One potential concern is the fact that he is now 33 years old. He has four more years on his current contract which expires after the 2026-27 season.
Charles Lindgren:
Save Percentage: .899
Goals Against Average: 3.05
Goals Saved Above Expected: -3.9
Goals Saved Above Expected per 60: -.138
Save Percentage Above Expected: -0.002
The Capitals backup goaltender is Charles Lindgren. He posted a save percentage in 2022-23 that was worse than his lifetime save percentage of .906. He had performed well in December during a stretch where Keumper was injured but overall, performed worse during the second half of the season. His contract expires after the 2024-25 season.
Assessment: Overall, the Capitals’ goaltending should be at least adequate although both Keumper and Lindgren have performed better than they did last season.
Statistics obtained from the NHL site and Money Puck
By Diane Doyle
While Vanacek and especially Samsonov had their ups and downs in DC, the tandem that took their place didn’t provide improved goaltending. Kuemper is average and Lindgen was unproven.
I seriously don’t understand the want to or need to sign Kuemper, was it just because the GM likes to have no salary cap room or also believes like the last HC that he wants experienced players who are on the decline? I have no problem letting Samsonov walk as he had worn out his welcome here (and part of his problem was I believe lack of good coaching and thinking he knew everything already and a bad influence from Kuzy). However they should have kept Vanacek and build around him. Hopefully Kuemper gets off to a good start and he can be traded before the deadline to get rid of his salary and bring up Shepard. Going to be tough next year facing both NY’s, Carolina and well basically everyone but Columbus and Philly.
Kuemper was perceived to be the best of a not-so-great lot of free agent goalies. His stock was high since he was goaltender of the Stanley Cup winner. Caps were just that eager to move on from last season’s tandem. (Keeping one of VV or Sam might have been more cost-effective, to you alluded even if VV was your choice to keep.) VV will have to improve in the playoffs, in any case. I’m wondering if some of it is mental, in his case, since it’s been Murphy’s Law for him there, in whatever can go wrong would go wrong. Injuries, bad games, etc.
I understand and appreciate your answer. I often wonder if the Caps management isn’t one of those who looks that the grass is always greener somewhere else. I agree that VV needs improvement and he gets that by more playing time and good coaching (which I wonder if the Caps have in the goaltending coach). I always thought that VV had the necessary tools to be a #1 goalie in the NHL and still believe that. I also think that about 1/2 of the problem with a bad goalie is the defense in front of him. I guess my thought is if the main goal of the owner and Gm is to get Ovie a record and they have no money to spend on players to improve the team then why bring in Kuemper just because you leave the rest of the team is in tatters. It is obvious that their past ways o signing players to bad long term contracts has not worked out especially seeing young talent being traded or walking. maybe it is time to forgo the “overhaul” and just go for a rebuild and trade any of the older players for what they can get and encourage Backy to retire and if Ovie doesn’t like it he can retire/quit or be released from his contract to find employment elsewhere as this is a team game not something to be put on hold for several years to see one player obtain a record.
The goalies had to go after 21-22. Sammy a HC and VV underperformed in the playoffs and winning in the playoffs was the goal. GMBM made it clear he was going to rebuild that position. He signed the best FA goalie and got a cheap backup with upside to cost control.
They definitely underperformed but the defense in front of them was terrible so GMBM addressed that with Sandin and some beef in Edmundson. Hopefully that helps goaltending as well next year (along with new Dee coach Mitch Love – whom seems to have some nasty to him).
I would like to see a goalie coach change. Hoping Carberry agrees and has enough juice to make that happen after this season.
He could have kept VV as the backup. Sammy had to go no problem with that. However I still don’t like the contract that they overpaid giving Kuemper. For a team that is not a Cup contender and will not be for at least 5-7 years there was no need to pay that amount of money for a goalie. others with experience and nt the age could have been had for less. Just my opinion on a lot of wasted money that could have been better used.
He could have. But VV also fetched good value. And Caps felt burned by having nobody grab the number one slot, so i am sure that influenced wanting a true number 1.
Last year goalie was their number one position to upgrade. I like that GMBM was decisive in his plans and execution. And remember, while some think there is a long rebuild, Caps made those moves because they had their eyes on the playoffs and a cup run.
There was a lot of prejudice and unwarranted pressure on both goalies as the reasons why they were let go. There was this concept in the minds of mgmt and training staff that there has to be a clearcut #1, and as soon as either goalie made a mistake or two (and who doesn’t?), they were replaced by the other goalie. I remember the media coverage at the time, and it was just total trash piled on both goalies. Even the slightest error or perceived drawback was dwelled upon and magnified (near post, 5-hole on a breakaway, mishandled the puck behind the net or there was some misunderstanding with the D man, puck squeaked through, etc.). While in reality, these are goals practically every goalie gives up from time to time. And a lot of it had to do with defensive breakdowns and errors in our own zone, which no one took care to mention or even consider. It was always the goalies’ fault. Why? Because this “proved” they couldn’t be considered a clearcut #1. Whereas nowadays there are a number of teams which rely in almost equal measure on two goaltenders, while some (Carolina, even Vegas, although part of it was injury-related) roll with three (VGK had to go with four). The way both Vitek and Samsonov broke through this year (yeah, VV fumbled the PO, but still), shows a lot of the mistreatment they got in DC, including from local media, was biased. I’ve seen the advanced stats on both, but I’ve also compared the D stats year-to-year to correlate, and I’m pretty sure they would have done better without the prejudice and media pressure.
Too often when there are too many choices, it’s easier to want to flip flop among them. I swear it was that was with Orioles managers after Earl Weaver. It was that way with Caps goaltenders in 2011 where neither Varly nor Neuvy were a clear cut Number 1.
There’s a sizable distance between Sorokin/Shesterkin and the other goalies in the Metro. I would take Darcy over Carter, Vitek, Freddy, Antti, Varly, Elvis, Tristan, or Casey. But the second tier are all pretty similar with different strengths and weaknesses.