Late last month we took a look at the performance of each and every forward line combination that was deployed by the Washington Capitals over the course of the 2022-23 season. Yesterday we began refining the analysis by beginning to look at line performance for individual players, beginning with captain Alex Ovechkin’s line combinations. Today we take a look at the performance of each and every line combination deployed with Evgeny Kuznetsov.
As we begin to further drill down on what worked and what didn’t work for the Capitals in the 2022-23 season, in order to better understand the Capitals needs this off-season, we can begin by assessing all of the line combinations deployed for each individual player and the resultant overall performance of each of those line combinations.
The following graph plots each and every forward line combination deployed with Evgeny Kuznetsov for the 2022-23 season (sans lines that included Marcus Johansson, Lars Eller and Garnet Hathaway). The graph includes the total time each line was on the ice (TOI), the percentage of offensive zone faceoffs each line was on the ice for (OZFO%), the expected goals differential (xGF – xGA) and the expected goals for percentage (xGF%) deployed at five-on-five. [Click to enlarge].
[The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and the NoVa Caps Advanced Analytics Model (NCAAM). If you’d like to learn more about the statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL Analytics Glossary]
The thin horizontal red line above bifurcates the positive and negative expected goals for percentages for all of the line combinations.
WHAT WORKED
The Milano-Kuznetsov-Mantha line was Kuznetsov’s best line combination last season. As we’ve seen with many of Sonny Milano’s lines, his positive impact is nowhere more apparent than his play with Kuznetsov.
Same can be said for Connor Sheary, who improved the play of several of the Capitals line combinations this season. Craig Smith also had a positive impact on Kuznetsov’s lines.
WHAT DIDN’T WORK
In the end, Kuznetsov finished with a personal expected goals for percentage of 42.46%, the worst of his career, and the worst among all Capitals regular forwards for the 2022-23 season.
Kuznetsov, who posted 24 Goals and 78 Points in 79 games played last season, recorded just 12 and 55, respectively, in 81 contests in 2022-23. While he did not wish to evaluate his performance, the 2010 first-round pick offered an assessment of his dip in goal-scoring.
“I have nothing to comment about that at this point in time, sorry”, Kuznetsov replied during his breakdown day presser. “I still need a little more time…fought till the end, trying to get healthy, and all that stuff. But just wasn’t there so I got to sit and think why is all happening, but I’m pretty sure I’m gonna come back stronger next year,” said Kuznetsov.
“I feel like last year, there was a few more breakaways, and this year just two breakaways, so I think some of those high-danger shots I used to have I didn’t have this year. There’s a lot of time to think about and refocus but I’m pretty sure I’m going to find a solution.”
In his end-of-season press conference, Capitals General Manager Brian MacLellan expressed dissatisfaction with Kuznetsov’s game this season.
“Probably disappointed in it. I think it wasn’t as good as last year. I liked his season last year, he played well,” said MacLellan. “For whatever reason, he never quite found his game. I mean there were stretches where I thought he played well, but overall I think he underperformed the season he had last year.”
The 30-year old forward, who has played his entire 10-season career in Washington, has once again found himself in the offseason trade rumor mill. He was not asked about this in his exit interview, although Kuznetsov described his emotions surrounding the team’s failure to play into the summer as “very low”.
CONTEXT AND CAVEATS
It’s hard to quantify how much the Capitals injuries and lineup variations affected the play of Kuznetsov this season. We’ve seen him be very inconsistent during majority of his career in Washington, something that was well known by the Capitals on his draft day. Just to listen to Bob McKenzie’s scouting report on Kuznetsov from his draft day in 2010. It very much summarizes the Kuznetsov of today.
The Capitals knew about the inconsistencies in 2010, so to expect anything different probably isn’t a fair expectation of Kuznetsov. He is who he is. The Capitals got a known quantity. The question now is, do they want to continue with the inconsistent performance.
Next up we will take a look at the performance of T.J. Oshie’s line deployments.
By Jon Sorensen