We began our 2022-23 Washington Capitals season review with an analysis of the goaltenders earlier this week. Next up is an individual assessment of each of the Capitals defensemen for the 2022-23 season. We begin our Capitals’ blueline review with Alex Alexeyev.
Alexeyev, 23, was the Capitals first round draft pick (#31 overall) in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft. The 6’-4” left-handed defenseman signed a three-year entry-level contract on September 24, 2018 for $863,333 AAV and is a restricted free agent this summer.
The Capitals announced on June 18 that Alexeyev had undergone labral repair surgery on his left shoulder and was expected to miss 4-5 months. As a result, Alexeyev missed training camp and the start of the 2022-23 season. On top of that, Alexeyev was not waivers exempt this season, which made things a little more tricky in his management.
The Hershey Bears announced on October 28 that Alexeyev had been officially loaned to the Bears on a long-term injury conditioning assignment. After four games with the Bears and the maximum allowable time for an injury conditioning assignment, the Capitals recalled Alexeyev from Hershey on November 8.
Alexeyev made his regular season debut with the Capitals the following night against Pittsburgh. He did not play again until December 3, but at that point he became a regular in the Capitals starting lineup.
2022-23 SEASON STATS
For the 2022-23 season, Alexeyev played in 32 games, had no goals and five assists and was a -2 in more than 500 minutes of ice time. The following are the season stats for Alexeyev at all strengths. [Click to enalrge].
[The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, MoneyPuck and the NoVa Caps Advanced Analytics Model (NCAAM). If you’d like to learn more about the statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL Analytics Glossary]
While Alexeyev’s basic possession metrics appear low, (and they are, xGF% = 41.28%), the stats include a slow start to his season. His possession stats were slowly climbing at the end of the season, as you will see in the following section. It also needs to be noted that Alexeyev saw a majority of his starts in the defensive zone, which is a sign the Capitals were testing, but trusted him in such a role.
Alexeyev’s turnover differential was poor, -13, and he took more hits than he delivered. Both stats will need to improve if he is going to find a permanent starting role. His expected goals differential was also negative, but that too was improving towards the end of the season.
PAIRING PERFORMANCE
Alexeyev was deployed in nine different pairings for the 2022-23 season (not including pairings with Dmitry Orlov and Erik Gustafsson). The following graph plots the performance of each pair combination (left and right side assignments), including time on ice, offensive zone faceoff percentage, expected goals differential and expected goals for percentages at five on five: [Click to enlarge].
We’ve noted in previous posts that the Alexeyev-van Riemsdyk pairing thrived this season, and was one of the best performing pairs for the Capitals, all while seeing just 27.91% offensive zone faceoffs. If Alexeyev earns a starting role on opening night you can be assured he will be paired with van Riemsdyk.
The Alexeyev-Fehervary pairing, which was first implemented during their rookie seasons in Herhsey, has not yet materialized. The Capitals gave the pairing more than 120 minutes together at five-on-five, but overall positive results have yet to be realized.
It should be noted that the two did hook-up for a good looking goal late in the season, hopefully foreshadowing things to come.
It would appear that Alexeyev’s numbers fall off quickly after his pairing numbers with van Riemsdyk, but his other pairing mate at the end of the season was Matt Irwin, when van Riemsdyk was injured) and the pair did a decent job, potentially indicating that Alexeyev’s game was gaining steam at the end of the season.
RATE-ADJUSTED PLUS-MINUS
Next we can look at how Alexeyev has performed in per sixty minute rates in comparison to the league using Rate-Adjusted Plus Minus (RAPM):
As Justin noted in his mid-season assessment of Alexeyev (here), it’s no surprise to see Alexeyev’s expected goals for per sixty (xGF/60) or Corsi shot attempts for per sixty (CF/60) fall well below the replacement level of zero here.
Alexeyev has actually fared rather well in expected goals against per sixty (xGA/60), implying Alexeyev is a bit further along defensively than he is offensively.
ISOLATED IMPACT
We can also look at Alexeyev’s individual impact when he is on the ice via HockeyViz.
The numbers haven’t changed much since Justin’s initial assessment (here), although his offensive percentage dropped from -4% to -6%. His penalty kill comparison is somewhat impressive considering his experience and how well he did on the kill.
2023-24 SEASON FORECAST
It bears repeating that Alexeyev started the season slow, and most of his numbers were improving as the season wound down. But the question remains, have they improved enough.
The Capitals tested Alexeyev in the final third of the season, including extended time on the penalty kill and giving him a majority of defensive zone shift starts. Alexeyev answered the bell in many cases and thrived in certain situations (being paired with van Riemsdyk), but by no means did he prove 100% he should get one of the six spots to start next season. That will be decided in training camp, assuming the Capitals don’t deal him and they re-sign the restricted free agent.
The injuries remain a concern, as we have documented several times since his draft day (here). While he has suffered a serious knee injury during his time in the WHL, a majority of his significant injuries have come to both shoulders, something that needs to be considered when conducting an overall assessment. Hopefully his shoulder surgery last summer will curtail some of that.
The best role on the Capitals heading into the 2023-24 season, barring a tremendous showing in the preseason, would be to give Alexeyev the seventh defenseman role to start the season. He showed enough down the stretch to earn that as a starting point. The position would allow for his continued development and allow him to work his way into a starters role.
As for Alexeyev, he concluded his breakdown day media interview with his plans for the off-season.”Staying here!
By Jon Sorensen
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