Assessing The Capitals’ Nicklas Backstrom Quandary

This past summer, Nicklas Backstrom decided to take on an intensive and potentially career-impacting hip resurfacing surgery. By all accounts the surgery went well, as he  eventually out-performed the odds of returning to the ice during the 2022-23 season. He ended up suiting up for the Capitals in 39 games.

While it was great for the Capitals and fans too see Backstrom back on the ice, it wasn’t the same Backstrom we’ve become accustomed to seeing in red, white, and blue since the 2007-08 season.

The surgery was particularly risky for Backstrom’s career. He mentioned that it helped relieve his hip pain in his day-to-day life, but recovering from this surgery and having a fruitful post-surgery career is unprecedented for this type of procedure.

Other notable players who had this procedure done were Ryan Kesler of the Anaheim Ducks and Ed Jovanovski of the Florida Panthers. Neither Kesler or Jovanovski had significant (or any) playing time following those surgeries. Jovanovski was 36 when he had the surgery done. Kesler was 34.

Backstrom is currently 35. Jovanovski played in 37 games after the hip resurfacing surgery, was then bought out, and then retired the following season. By my calculations, Backstrom now has the most games played in the NHL following a hip resurfacing surgery.

In his breakdown day interview, Backstrom mentioned that he was optimistic about his future performance, since he’ll be able to get a full training session in this off-season. General Manager Brian MacLellan didn’t share in his optimism, effectively saying that he doesn’t know how much better Backstrom gets with the off-season training and that Backstrom will have to make a decision on his career prior to training camp.

In this post, we’re going to evaluate Backstrom’s performance in his 39 games played this season. The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference, and HockeyViz. If you’d like to learn more about the statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL Analytics Glossary.

Performance during five-on-five play

Here’s a glance at how Backstrom fared in the key underlying metrics during five-on-five play by month over the course of the season:

This is a tough look for Backstrom. He largely struggled to have a positive impact on the ice in possession metrics, goals for percentage (GF%). There’s an absolute eye-sore in February, where Backstrom actually posted his best Corsi For percentage (CF%), Fenwick For percentage (FF%), shots for percentage (SF%), and expected goals for percentage (xGF%), but laid an absolute goose egg in GF%.

Problems with finishing rates is nothing new for the Capitals this season, but a 55.69% differential between GF% and xGF% is harrowing. Here’s a glimpse into a concerning trend for Backstrom during five-on-five scoring this season:

Obviously, we know that Backstrom was on the ice for zero goals scored during the month of February. Outside of that, though, there’s a concerning trend where Backstrom only scored one goal and nine total points during five-on-five play this season.

In all game situations, Backstrom had seven goals, 14 assists, and 21 points on the season. That means that 11 of his 21 total points came on the power play. It’s becoming crystal clear that Backstrom no longer is driving scoring during five-on-five play, and is effectively a power play specialist.

To hammer this point home, here’s Backstrom’s isolated impact this season:

This graphic is harrowing to see. The Capitals are 16% worse offensively during even-strength play when Backstrom is on the ice and 9% worse defensively. He barely moved the needle on the power play.

With his underlying metrics and offensive output (or lack thereof) this season, these isolated impact figures are basically to be expected.

Here’s Backstrom’s rate-adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) chart this season:

This basically mirrors the takeaways detailed above. Backstrom is below replacement level of impact in all offensive categories during even strength, but has some value recouped by his expected goals against per sixty minutes (xGA/60) figure. Overall though, this is not the type of performance that instills confidence in a potential rebound performance next season.

The above RAPM chart is concerning enough, but when we look back to his RAPM chart from early March when we analyzed his performance last, we can see a clear degradation in performance across the board during even-strength situations:

There’s a couple potential reasons here: Backstrom’s performance suffered over time after not having a true off-season to condition; or Backstrom’s surgery has impacted his ability to perform at high levels. It could even be a mix of both.

Player value using Goals Above Replacement (GAR) and Expected Goals Above (xGAR)

GAR (and xGAR) is a metric-based tool set that allows us to measure a player’s overall value on the ice in relation to “replacement level”, which is effectively a borderline NHL player.

Here’s Backstrom’s GAR and xGAR performance over the course of his career:

This is the first season of Backstrom’s career where his GAR has fallen below replacement level. He’s had an overall downward trend over the course of his career, which is normal, but the fact that he’s now a negative value player likely isn’t a coincidence with the timing of his surgery.

The last time we checked in on Backstrom’s performance, he posted a GAR of -3.5. He finished the season at -2.1, which is slightly better than where he was at the beginning of March. That’s not necessarily a victory though, considering his cap hit of $9.2M for the next two seasons.

For a good view of Backstrom’s overall player value, here’s his player card from Evolving Hockey:

Backstrom’s overall ranking of 14 means that he’s in the 14th percentile of players in his position group. He’s making the 10th highest cap hit among NHL centers this season. Evolving Hockey ranks him rather highly in defensive marks, putting him at the 70th percentile.

If we were looking at Backstrom’s performance above in a vacuum where his salary didn’t matter, he’s effectively a third line center and power play specialist. Unfortunately, that’s not exactly feasible for a player with a cap hit of $9.2M.

Where do the Caps and Backstrom go from here?

When I was watching MacLellan’s press conference on break down day, I was taken aback by his honesty regarding Backstrom’s future. His candor, especially with the context of the question being around Backstrom’s optimism with a full off-season of training and recovery, really added a stark, bleak reality that the Caps are in a really precarious situation with Backstrom’s current level of play and his contract’s cap hit.

The reality is, the Caps could surely use that $9.2M to fill gaps in the roster. If the Caps are intent on invigorating the lineup with a bit more youth and skill, they can hardly afford to pay a sharply regressing Backstrom $9.2M to be a third line center who gets time on the first power play unit. They have options in Hershey that could fill that third line center role for 10% of the cost of Backstrom’s cap hit.

Here’s the options the Caps have:

1. The Capitals convince Backstrom that he should retire, while still taking care of him financially and giving him a role in the organization.
2. After a summer of conditioning, Backstrom’s hip is ailing and can no longer play. Doctors have to corroborate the injury’s impact on his ability to play hockey, and is put on the long term injury list until his contract ends. The Capitals could then trade his contract to another NHL team looking for LTIR money.
3. The Capitals buy out the remainder of his contract. This seems like the least likely scenario to me, because you run the risk of potentially enraging Alex Ovechkin. The Caps would save $3,833,333 against the cap next season, $833,333 in 2024-25, but take on an excess $1,166,667 in cap hit in 2025-26 and 2026-27.
4. The Capitals trade Backstrom to a team that needs to hit the salary cap floor and is looking for a player to mentor young players. The Capitals would likely have to pay a considerable price to dump his contract on another team.
5. The Capitals and Backstrom are satisfied enough with his health to give him a chance to play during the 2023-24 season and will monitor his performance.

This is a really precarious situation for both Backstrom and the Capitals. Backstrom wanted to get the surgery to ensure that he could end his NHL career on his own terms. If Backstrom is optimistic about his off-season and having a better season next season as a result, he’s going to be less likely to accept retirement. This seems more like a pride thing for Backstrom, and I’m sure he would want to be a part of another Stanley Cup. I don’t blame him there.

This off-season is going to be full of a ton of story lines around the retooling of the roster and infusing youth, a higher pace of play, and hiring a new coaching staff. The Backstrom quandary might be the most impactful story of the upcoming off-season, though.

By Justin Trudel