Auditioning For A Role Next Season: What Should The Capitals Do With Each Of Their Pending UFAs?

The Capitals are entering a bit of uncharted waters during the Ovechkin Era this off-season, as Capitals general manager Brian Maclellan will look to make the team younger but more competitive, all under the overarching plan of chasing down another Stanley Cup during the twilight of Alex Ovechkin’s legendary career.

The Capitals have five pending unrestricted free agents on the roster this season: Craig Smith, Conor Sheary, Connor Brown, Carl Hagelin, and Matt Irwin. Here’s a glimpse of those pending UFAs:

With the roster headed towards an overturn with the goal of retooling the roster around the aging core, there’s not going to be a lot of room for veteran players, especially with General Manager Brian MacLellan floating the goal of acquiring another top six skill player on the younger side. With that, we’re going to take a look at the Capitals’ five pending UFAs and make a call on what the Caps should do with them at season’s end.

To note: we won’t be covering Hagelin in this post. He hasn’t played at all this season due to an eye injury he suffered in practice last season, and he also just had hip resurfacing surgery. We likely have seen the last of Hagelin in a Caps uniform, and maybe the last time we’ll see him in the NHL at all.

The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, and HockeyViz. Salary cap information is courtesy of CapFriendly. If you’d like to learn more about the statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL Analytics Glossary.

CRAIG SMITH

When Smith was included as a return player in the Dmitry Orlov and Garnet Hathaway trade to Boston, it felt like Smith was a throw-in to account for a roster spot and some more cap flexibility for the Bruins. Alternatively, Smith has gotten a fair bit of playing time on the Caps, and has looked rather decent in his appearances.

Here’s Smith’s on-ice performance metrics during five-on-five play:

To note: these are Smith’s statistics from his stint with the Caps. Smith’s performance during five-on-five play has been rather commendable, especially in the key metrics we use to measure on-ice impact.

Smith is on the ice for the majority of Corsi shot attempts (CF%), Fenwick shot attempts (FF%), shots on goal (SF%), goals for (GF%), expected goals for (xGF%), and high-danger chances (HDCF%). For a so-called “throw-in” player, Smith has really shined in Washington in his short stint with the Caps.

Here’s Smith’s goals above replacement (GAR) marks this season:

Overall this season, when incorporating his value from the Bruins and the Capitals, Smith has been a sub-replacement level player. That’s not too surprising considering he’s 33 and on the back-nine of his career.

That being said, Smith’s GAR performance in Washington is actually fairly solid: he’s put up 1.5 offensive GAR (oGAR), 0.1 defensive GAR (dGAR), and a total 1.5 GAR value. That’s a far shot from his performance in Boston: -1 oGAR, -0.7 dGAR, -2.2 total GAR.

Here’s Smith’s isolated impact while on the ice for the Caps:

Smith has shown great effectiveness in the offensive and defensive zones during even strength through 14 games with the Capitals. He hasn’t gotten a lot of run on special teams, so we can disregard his impact there on the graphic above. Overall, Smith has been a solid fit in the middle-six forward group for the Capitals to round out this overall disappointing season.

Verdict

In any other scenario than the one the Caps will find themselves this off-season, Smith might be a solid retention option for forward depth. The fact that he’s 33 probably ages him out of the Capitals’ plans for their roster construction.

If Smith were willing to come back on a league minimum salary to serve as the 13th forward, that would be ideal. He could slot into a spot up and down the lineup in case of injuries, but with the Caps’ goal of getting younger, Smith is pretty much outside the desired age group.

CONOR SHEARY

Sheary has had a bit of a career resurgence in Washington following his prove-it deal with the Caps in the 2020-21 season. The two-year extension he signed during that 2020-21 season has kept a solid offensive forward in town for an affordable cost, especially since he saw plenty of time on the top line with Ovechkin this season.

Here’s Sheary’s on-ice performance during five-on-five play this season:

Sheary’s possession numbers aren’t the strongest in the world, but he thrives in generating scoring chances and high-danger scoring chances. With that, his expected goals for percentage is solid.

The best part about the metrics above is that his goals for percentage exceeds his expected goals for percentage, meaning that the Caps’ finishing rate is healthy while Sheary is on the ice. Part of that is playing with Ovechkin though, and he really seems to drop off in effectiveness when he’s away from Ovechkin in the lineup.

Here’s Sheary’s GAR performance:

As reflected above, Sheary is an effective, offensively focused forward for the Caps. He’s not a complete liability defensively, but does fall below the replacement level in that regard. Overall, the actual value the Caps have gotten out of Sheary at a rather meager price point is really desirable.

Here’s Sheary’s on-ice isolated impact:

Realistically, Sheary hasn’t had a ton of impact on the ice here when looking at his performance in relation to the Caps’ overall performance. He moves the needle a tiny bit offensively during even strength, doesn’t move the needle at all defensively at even strength, and is actually a negative impact on the power play.

Verdict

I was surprised that Sheary wasn’t dealt at the trade deadline this season. I had figured that a contending team wouldn’t mind adding a skilled middle-six forward to their roster in hopes of taking their team over the edge for playoff success. Part of me wonders if the Caps held onto him to see if they could extend him, but as we’re moving closer and closer to the end of the season, perhaps the Caps couldn’t find a suitable deal for him at the deadline.

Sheary’s time in the top-six has fallen a bit, getting more deployments on the fourth line with Nic Dowd than on the top line with Ovechkin. The Caps could choose to keep him around, but at 30, Sheary might chase a longer term deal with a bit higher of a cap hit than the Caps would be willing to offer.

MATT IRWIN

Entering this season, Irwin was pretty much the prototypical veteran seventh defenseman. He had solid performances last season, but was used much more sparingly than he was last season. With more and more ice time and deployments this season due to injuries, Irwin’s age showed. On top of that, he took a lot of ice time away from developing Alexander Alexeyev. Obviously, that’s not his fault, but more of a fault in the lack of talent development of young players from the coaching staff.

Here’s Irwin’s on-ice performance during five-on-five play:

There’s not really much to admire here. He’s at least on the positive side of SF%, but everything else trails below the 50% watermark. His GF% is putrid, especially since he’s more of a defensive defenseman than anything. There’s not really any redeeming factors here, and it’s kind of dumbfounding that Irwin got so much playing time this season with Alexeyev in the press box.

Here’s Irwin’s GAR performance:

Irwin is an absolute black hole offensively. He has the 13th worst oGAR in the NHL this season. He’s rather solid defensively, which is to be expected since that fits his play style a bit more, but his on-ice total GAR value slots him as solidly as a below replacement level player.

Here’s Irwin’s isolated impact:

Yeah, not good. There’s not much to say here other than the Caps are pretty much worse in every regard when Irwin is on the ice.

Verdict

Thanks for your efforts, Matt, but your services are no longer needed in Washington. The Caps can easily replace Irwin with a similar price point.

CONNOR BROWN

What could have this season been if the Caps had Brown healthy all season? Perhaps a bit better, but maybe not. Overall, the Caps only had four games with Brown in the lineup after spending a second round pick to acquire him from Ottawa this off-season.

I was a fan of the move, and thought that Brown could add a bit of depth scoring from the right side of the ice. That’s where the Caps have suffered the most, especially with the idea of acquiring Brown being that he could hold down a spot in the top-six while Tom Wilson was recovering from his ACL injury.

Here’s Brown’s on-ice performance during five-on-five play in four games this season:

Due to a low sample size, these statistics can be a bit volatile. We see good trends in CF% and FF%, but you can really see that volatility in his GF% and HDCF%. I’m pretty comfortable in saying that those two metrics wouldn’t have stayed this low if Brown played more games.

I didn’t feel like Brown’s GAR performance through four games was stable enough to include here. The small sample size has a large impact on GAR values and can lead to statistically insignificant results having huge impacts on their overall values.

Here’s Brown’s isolated impact:

Again, small sample size, but he had positive impact, offensively. Defensively was on the other end of the spectrum, but it was only four games worth of data. There’s not much to go on here in terms of what we can expect from Brown, especially after an ACL injury.

Verdict

I would be a fan of bringing Brown back on a cheap prove-it deal. He could be a great contributor on the third line, and if it didn’t pan out, the Caps aren’t looking down the barrel of an expensive long-term contract.

By Justin Trudel