The Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins conclude their three-game season series Saturday night at PPG Paints Arena, with puck drop set for 8 p.m. on ABC and ESPN+.
Washington is 1-1-0 versus Pittsburgh this season and have won three-straight games at PPG Paints Arena. Pittsburgh won 4-1 on Nov. 9 and the Caps took a 3-2 shootout victory on Jan. 26. Capitals defenseman John Carlson missed both of those prior games.
The Penguins hold a four-point lead over the Capitals and have a game in hand. However, the Pens are in a bit of a tailspin; they’ve dropped five of their last six games, including each of their last two at home.
The Capitals have a record of 106-106-16-14 all-time vs. Pittsburgh and are 8-5-4 in their last 17 games against the Penguins, dating back to the 2019-20 season. In addition, Washington has won three-straight games at PPG Paints Arena.
BASIC PRE-GAME STATS
The basic season stats for the Capitals and Penguins heading into Saturday night’s tilt in Pittsburgh [Click to enlarge].
The Penguins are generating more shots per game but also giving up more shots against per game. In addition, the Penguins actually have a negative goal differential for the season. The Capitals also hold the edge in special teams.
POSSESSION METRICS
The Penguins hold a slight edge in all of the basic possession metrics for the season. [Click to enlarge].
The following graph plots the Capitals possession metrics for each of the previous two tilts with the Penguins. [Click to enlarge]
[The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, MoneyPuck and the NoVa Caps Advanced Analytics Model (NCAAM). If you’d like to learn more about the statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL Analytics Glossary]
LINEUPS: CAPITALS (34-31-8) at PENGUINS (35-27-10)
Capitals projected lineup
Alex Ovechkin — Dylan Strome — Tom Wilson
Aliaksei Protas — Nicklas Backstrom — T.J. Oshie
Anthony Mantha — Evgeny Kuznetsov — Craig Smith
Nicolas Aube-Kubel — Nic Dowd — Conor Sheary
Martin Fehervary — John Carlson
Rasmus Sandin — Nick Jensen
Alexander Alexeyev — Trevor van Riemsdyk
Darcy Kuemper
Charlie Lindgren
Scratched: Matt Irwin
Sonny Milano did not make the trip to Pittsburgh. He’s out a week with an upper body injury, possibly longer, per team. Milano took a big hit from Connor Murphy on Thursday, but finished the game.
Penguins projected lineup
Jake Guentzel — Sidney Crosby — Bryan Rust
Jason Zucker — Evgeni Malkin — Rickard Rakell
Danton Heinen — Ryan Poehling — Mikael Granlund
Drew O’Connor — Jeff Carter — Josh Archibald
Pierre-Olivier Joseph — Kris Letang
Brian Dumoulin — Chad Ruhwedel
Mark Friedman — Taylor Fedun
Casey DeSmith
Tristan Jarry
Scratched: Dustin Tokarski, Alex Nylander
Injured: Nick Bonino (lacerated kidney), Dmitry Kulikov (lower body), Jeff Petry (upper body), Marcus Pettersson (lower body), Jan Rutta (lower body)