Photo by Juan Ocampo/NHLI via Getty Images
The day after the Capitals dealt Dmitry Orlov and Garnet Hathaway to the Boston Bruins, NHL insider Darren Dreger reported that the Capitals had entered the Jakob Chychrun sweepstakes. This made it clear that General Manager Brian MacLellan is pursuing the strategy of retooling the team on the fly in hopes of putting a team worthy of playoff contention on the ice next season.
In this post, we’ll take a dive into Chychrun’s on-ice performance and player value, as well as identifying reasons why (and why not) the Capitals should acquire the defenseman. The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference, CapFriendly, HockeyViz, and Evolving Hockey. If you’d like to learn more about the statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL Analytics Glossary.
Background
Jakob Chychrun was drafted in the first round of the 2016 NHL Entry Draft by the Arizona Coyotes. Chychrun made the Coyotes’ roster out of training camp, and has not spent any time in the AHL since.
It’s clear that he was one of the most draft-ready prospects in his draft class. The 2016 draft had plenty of top-end talent, including Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Matthew Tkachuk, teammate Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev, and Charlie McAvoy (to name a few).
Chychrun is effectively an NHL vet at this point, but only turns 25 at the end of March. He’s signed for two more years after this season with a relatively affordable cap hit of $4.6M.
The knock on Chychrun is his durability; he’s never played a full 82 game season. Prior to this season, where he has been scratched for “trade reasons” a handful of times, he’s only played in 337 of a possible 492 games (68.5%). That’s a lot of missed time for a player that would effectively be one of your top defensemen and could cost a pretty penny to acquire in a trade.
On Ice Performance
Let’s take a look at how Chychrun has performed during five-on-five play this season:
Overall, Chychrun has performed moderately well in the key on-ice performance indicators. One thing to keep in mind is just how bad the Coyotes roster is, and the metrics are largely impacted by the lack of depth on the roster.
What’s impressive here is the Coyotes’ goals for percentage (GF%) when Chychrun is on the ice. Nearly 60% of the goals scored during five-on-five play are when Chychrun is on the ice are for the Coyotes. That’s not bad considering they allow the majority of shots on goal (SF%) and fall below the 50% margin for high-danger chances for (HDCF%) and high-danger goals for (HDGF%).
Here’s the isolated impact of Chychrun on the Coyotes, courtesy of HockeyViz:
Chychrun adds a lot, offensively to the Coyotes during five-on-five play, resulting in a 3% increase in expected goals for per sixty minutes of play (xGF/60).
The interesting part is that he’s relatively inconsequential on the power play, although he has offensive chops. He’s not quite a black hole defensively, but there’s room for improvement there.
When on the ice, the result of the Coyotes, defensively is a 1% reduction in effectiveness in expected goals allowed per sixty minutes of play (xGA/60) and his performance on the penalty kill mirrors that. The key here is that the visual is only using xGF and xGA as an evaluator and not actual goals for or goals against.
When on the power play this season, he’s been on the ice for 10 goals for and 0 goals against. Chychrun has only played 21 minutes of time on ice during the penalty kill, and was on the ice for two goals in that scenario. During five-on-five play, he’s been on the ice for 35 goals for and 25 goals against. That’s certainly not bad for a guy playing on the rebuilding Coyotes.
Here’s Chychrun’s Rate Adjusted Plus-Minus chart from Evolving Hockey:
To continue on the point, Chychrun is really effective during five-on-five play. He’s above replacement level in goals for per sixty (GF/60), xGF/60, Corsi shot attempts for (CF/60), xGA/60, and Corsi shot attempts against per sixty (CA/60). When Chychrun is on the ice (and that’s the key for him), he’s a really effective player to have on your back end.
The power play is a relatively different story. The Coyotes have the 23rd ranked power play in the league at 19.7% effectiveness. That’s where the struggles in the GF/60 column play here for Chychrun. Chychrun does show an impact on xGF/60 at a league level, so there’s certainly chances being generated.
Chychrun’s player value
Now that we’ve taken a look at the key on-ice performance indicators, let’s take a look at how much value Chychrun has accrued using Goals Above Replacement (GAR) as a measurement. Here’s how Chychrun’s GAR has looked by season over time:
After a down season last year, Chychrun has rebounded well with a 6.6 GAR in only 36 games played so far this season. Currently, a GAR of 6.6 would slot in at fourth for defensemen on the Capitals roster, and the three defensemen in front of him have played in 60 or more games this season. Chychrun’s GAR/60 of .472 would rank second amongst Capitals’ defensemen, only trailing Erik Gustafsson (.641).
Here’s Chychrun’s GAR/60 over his career:
Chychrun’s current GAR/60 of .472 is the highest of his career so far, and he’s seen positive trajectory in that metric over the course of his career. At nearly 25 years old, he hasn’t really even hit his prime career years quite yet, so more improvement (as long as he can stay on the ice) is bound to happen.
Here’s how Chychrun has performed in GAR over the course of his career:
Overall, the 19-20 campaign was Chychrun’s finest. He drove a lot of value in only 63 games played, and he’s accruing his GAR at a lower pace than he is this season. If Chychrun wasn’t being held out of the lineup for trade reasons, then we could see even more value being generated.
Most of Chychrun’s value is generated in defensive GAR, followed by his offensive GAR. The only area he generates negative value consistently is in penalty GAR, where he ends up taking more penalties than he draws. That’s only a minor negative to his overall value, where he stands up as at least a top four defenseman, and could get even better. If he can stay healthy, his true ceiling is a team’s number one defenseman who can perform at both ends of the ice.
Should the Caps trade for Chychrun?
As I’ve touched on a couple times in this post, the biggest knock on Chychrun is his durability. That’s a very valid concern when acquiring a talent like Chychrun, especially for the Capitals, who have dealt with the most man-games lost due to injury this season.
One of the points of retooling the roster on the fly is to invest in younger talent who can support the aging core of the roster. The other point is that you hope that younger players have less wear on their tires and are more likely to be available for games than veterans who have aches and pains from a decade plus of heavy NHL hockey.
The talent is certainly there for Chychrun. The Capitals currently have one defenseman under contract next season in John Carlson. Acquiring Chychrun would give the Capitals some roster and cap certainty entering the off-season where MacLellan will be shopping for assets on the trade market and in free agency. For a legitimate top four or likely top pairing defenseman, Chychrun’s cap hit of $4.6M is really affordable.
The question of affordability comes down to the cost of acquiring Chychrun. Arizona General Manager Bill Armstrong is floating Chychrun at a “hefty price tag” via Pierre LeBrun (The Athletic). That price tag has been reported as two first round picks and a prospect for Chychrun. Ultimately, higher-end prospects might result in some budging off of that second first round pick, but the juice has to be worth the squeeze for the Coyotes to move Chychrun.
In terms of the Capitals, trading their own first round pick this season should be off the table. Over the next few games leading up to the trade deadline, the Capitals’ season could go in a myriad of directions: the bottom completely falling out, staying steady in the standings, or making a push into the playoffs. The first two directions are the most likely considering the quality of the current roster and the injury factor.
The upcoming NHL entry draft is one of the finer ones in recent memory, so losing out on a potential lottery pick at this point could really degrade the opportunity to pad a rather woeful prospect pipeline.
Realistically, if the Capitals would match the Coyotes price tag for Chychrun, a potential package would likely be Boston’s 2023 first round pick (acquired in the Orlov and Hathaway trade), Washington’s 2024 first round pick, and one of Connor McMichael or Hendrix Lapierre. If that sounds like a steep package, it is.
In order for the Capitals to compete for the remainder of the Ovechkin Era, some brash moves may need to be made. The consequence of extending the competitive window is kicking the rebuild can down the road. Typically, teams that do that enter into longer rebuilds (see Detroit post 2018). Chychrun fully fits the mold the Capitals are targeting for the roster moving forward: young, high quality players that can boost the performance of its aging core.
The biggest question for MacLellan is: if you win another Cup in the Ovechkin Era, do you care if there’s a longer rebuild after Ovi hangs up the skates?
By Justin Trudel