Capitals Potential Player Acquisition Target: Ryan Graves

Justin Trudel

1 year ago

Photo: Twitter: New Jersey Devils

In our latest in the series that identifies players that could be potential acquisition targets for the Washington Capitals this off-season, we’re going to take a look at current New Jersey Devil and pending unrestricted free agent Ryan Graves. With the Capitals intention of undergoing a retool on-the-fly to make the team playoff quality once again, adding a true top-four defensive defenseman could round-out the defensive corps.

The statistics and salary cap information used in this post are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference, CapFriendly, Dobber Sports, HockeyViz, and Evolving Hockey. If you’d like to learn more about the statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL Analytics Glossary.

Needs addressed

Graves is a left-handed defenseman who has mainly been on the Devils’ second defensive pairing with John Marino this season. Graves is a well-rounded defenseman who can contribute on both ends of the ice.

Ideally, Graves could add a bit more experience and physicality to the left side of the Capitals’ defensive group.

Background

Graves is a soon-to-be 28-year-old left defenseman and former fourth round pick (110th overall selection) by the New York Rangers. Graves never played for the Rangers, and was subsequently traded to the Colorado Avalanche for right-handed defenseman Chris Bigras back in 2018. Graves was then traded to the New Jersey Devils on July 15, 2021 for Mikhail Maltsev and a 2021 2nd round pick.

In his career, Graves has 28 goals, 72 assists, and 100 points in 302 games played. This past season with the New Jersey Devils, he posted 8 goals, 18 assists, and 26 points in 78 games played.

Graves is entering unrestricted free agency this summer, in the final year of a three year deal with a $3,166,667 cap hit.

Five-on-five on-ice performance

Here’s Graves’ performance in underlying possession metrics during five-on-five play this season:

Graves has a really solid showing here in these key underlying metrics. He’s above the 50% watermark in the Corsi (CF%) and Fenwick (FF%) shot attempt metrics, and that performance resulted in the Devils controlling 53.58% of shots on goal (SF%) when Graves was on the ice during five-on-five situations.

Most impressively, the Devils controlled 57.85% of goals scored (GF%) when Graves was deployed. The fact that his 57.85 GF% outpaced his 53.56 expected goals for percentage (xGF%) when on the ice indicates that the Devils had a high rate of finishing on chances when Graves was on the ice.

One of the more impressive contextual views of Graves’ performance this season is that he posted a performance of this quality when only receiving 41.7% of his zone starts in the offensive zone. This means that the Devils were able to transition the puck from the defensive zone effectively when Graves was on the ice.

To get a better picture of the Devils’ scoring chance generation when Graves was on the ice, here’s how he performed in scoring chance for percentage (SCF%), high danger chances for percentage (HDCF%), and high danger goals for percentage (HDGF%):

While these numbers are rather solid, we also have to take into account the fact that the Devils were one of the analytical darlings of the 2022-23 regular season. The Devils had the second best SCF% in the NHL, the best HDCF%, and the sixth best HDGF% this season.

Although the Devils were impressive this season, Graves definitely played an impactful part on their overall success:

Graves had positive isolated impact in both even-strength offense and even-strength defense. It’s interesting that he had a negative overall impact on the penalty kill, but that negative impact could be that the Devils just had an immensely successful penalty kill unit, finishing fourth in the league with an 82.6% effectiveness rate.

Rate-Adjusted Plus Minus

Rate-Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) is an efficient way to measure a player’s performance in relation to the league, and in relation to replacement level. Here’s Graves’ RAPM chart from Evolving Hockey:

Graves had a really positive impact on goals for per sixty minutes (GF/60), nearly reaching elite levels in that regard. That goal production really drove his GF% we saw earlier in the post.

Although we see below replacement levels in expected goals against per sixty (xGA/60) and Corsi shot attempts against per sixty (CA/60), we can see in his raw numbers above that he’s still a solid contributor in that regard.

His xGA/60 and CA/60 ratings above could also be impacted by his defensive zone start bias. He’s leaned upon to be in more of a “shut down” role, so he’s being put in more defensive situations against better competition.

To put his individual RAPM in context, here’s the Devils’ team RAPM chart:

As stated before (and probably observed by fans), the Devils were a really effective team this season. Graves is a solid contributor for them on the blue line.

Roster fit

With the Devils needing to re-sign a large portion of their current roster, there’s a chance that they don’t have the cap space necessary to retain Graves’ services. The Capitals won’t have much in terms of cap space as the roster currently stands, but there’s whispers of a few larger contracts on the books that could be on the move.

Brian MacLellan stated in his break down day press conference that top six forwards would be the primary focus of their acquisition efforts, but would see what they could do with some remaining cap space for the defensive group.

The Caps left side of the defense is likely going to be made up of Rasmus Sandin, Martin Fehervary, and Alexander Alexeyev if no new blood is brought into the lineup. That is a trio of current 23 year olds. Alexeyev has a decently high ceiling, but it’s unclear if he’s truly ready for every day use.

Graves could slot into the top four defensive group seamlessly and add a bit more size to the lineup. Graves is 6’5″ and 220 pounds, and could add a bit more physical presence to a defensive corps that lacks physicality. Graves would probably be on the higher end of the affordability for defensive help, but if cap space is opened and other needs are satisfied, Graves could fit well here.

Does this make sense for the Caps?

In my opinion, I think Graves would be a great option to round out the Caps defensive group. Between Sandin and Graves, they could both be used interchangeably with the top two right handed defensemen in John Carlson and Nick Jensen.

Graves also fits the age group the Caps are looking to infuse into the roster. He’s only 28 years old, which means he has productive years left in his career. If he’s signed to a four year deal (or even longer than that), his less productive years would likely be smack in the middle of the Caps rebuilding cycle.

By Justin Trudel