Back in August, prior to the start of the 2022-23 season, we projected the pathway forward for Capitals’ captain Alex Ovechkin to break Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal scoring record of 894 goals. We can likely expect that Ovechkin is not going to suit up for the final game of the disappointing 2022-23 season, so we’ll take a look at how his performance this season has impacted his quest for breaking Gretzky’s record.
The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Hockey Reference. If you’d like to learn more about the statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL Analytics Glossary.
Career Goal Scoring Rate
Just like last time we evaluated Ovechkin’s chase for ultimate goal scoring glory, it’s important to set the stage for how we can project Ovechkin’s future goal scoring output using his career stats as a precedent. Here’s Ovechkin’s career goals per game pace:
It’s remarkable just how consistent Ovechkin has been over the course of his career in goal scoring, and that’s exactly what’s needed to even come close to the marks that Ovechkin has set thus far in his career. Outside of a couple of outlier seasons in 2010-11 and 2016-17, Ovechkin has been hovering between 0.5 and .7 goals per game by season.
With Ovechkin sitting at 822 career goals after the 2022-23 season (assuming that he doesn’t suit up again this season), he meeds a mere 73 goals to break Gretzky’s goals record.
Projections
Just like last time, I’m going to break-up the projections into three tracks: Ovechkin’s career average goals per game rate of 0.61, his 2022-23 season goals per game rate of 0.58, and his career low goals per game rate of 0.4.
This multi-track approach is necessary for a couple of reasons. One, we can’t quantify aging and its effect on Ovechkin’s future performance. Two, we’ve never really seen a player like Ovechkin continue to score at this high of a rate into his late-30s. Three, it’s always prudent to have a “conservative” projection.
Using these three tracks, we’ll project how long it’ll take Ovechkin to break Gretzky’s record. Here’s how each pan out:
If Ovechkin scores at his career average or 2022-23 goals per game pace, he’ll break the record about halfway through the 2024-25 season. The more likely date range is sometime in early 2025.
If Ovechkin scores at his career low pace after this season, he’ll likely break the record around January of 2026. It’s important to note that Ovechkin’s contract runs through the end of the 2025-26 season.
How Many Goals Could He End Up With?
Using each of the paces we used above, let’s take a look at how many goals Ovechkin could end up with at the end of his current contract, and likely the end of his NHL career:
Ultimately, there’s a high likelihood that Ovechkin ends up being the first ever NHL player to surpass 900 career goals by the end of his current contract. If he continues to score at a high rate at the end of his contract, you’d have to wonder if he’d consider coming back to see if he could crack the 1000 goal mark. At that point, you probably rubber stamp the fact that his record would be practically untouchable.
Greatness
It’s easy for Caps fans to get locked in on the fact that the Caps struggled this season and are missing the playoffs for just the second time since 2008. While that’s a tough pill to swallow, we as fans can’t lose sight of the prospect watching the Caps best player in franchise history, the first to hoist the Stanley Cup for the Capitals, approach breaking a record that was once thought of as completely untouchable.
There will come a day when there’s a statue of Ovechkin doing his signature post goal ritual of kissing his glove and pointing to the sky in honor of his late brother. We should relish the fact that he’s still playing, and contributing, at such a high level.
By Justin Trudel