In what was a painfully head-scratching move by the rebuilding Blackhawks, Strome entered the unrestricted free agency market. Luckily for the Capitals and General Manager Brian MacLellan, signing Strome was one of the easiest low-risk, high-reward transactions of the summer.
The Capitals and Strome entered into a one-year contract worth $3.5M against the salary cap. As a nice cherry on top of the deal, Strome will be a restricted free agent after this season, allowing the Capitals the flexibility to extend Strome while having team control this summer.
Chicago’s brain-numbing decision to non-tender Strome was a stroke of luck for the Capitals with Nicklas Backstrom on the long-term injury list for the foreseeable future. They picked up a solid top-six center with wing flexibility who had experience playing with some of the top talent in the league in Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat.
In this post, we’ll be taking a dive into Strome’s performance so far this season. The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference, and HockeyViz. If you’d like to learn more about the statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL Analytics Glossary.
Player Value
First up, let’s take a look at how Strome has performed in terms of Goals Above Replacement (GAR) and Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM). These metrics help us encapsulate the entire performance of a player outside of just individual scoring production.
Here’s how Strome’s GAR value stacks up against his peers in the forward group on the Capitals: [Click to enlarge]
The good news here is, Strome has proven to be defensively reliable in a system and under a head coach that demands a solid 200-foot game from his players.
Now, let’s take a look at Strome’s RAPM:
We’ll get more into the possession stats a bit later, but there’s certainly nothing concerning about Strome’s performance during even-strength play. One thing to note here is that his goals for per 60 (GF/60) trails a bit behind his expected goals for per 60 (xGF/60), which can be an indicator that an increase in offensive production may be on its way.
On the right side of the graphic above, we can see that Strome is very effective on the power play. This can also be proven by the fact that Strome is second on the Capitals’ forwards in power play offensive GAR, trailing only Conor Sheary.
Strome adds a ton of value, offensively, on the power play, and has shown to be rather interchangeable with Evgeny Kuznetsov on the half-wall or at the goal line extended below the face-off dot.
Here’s Strome’s isolated impact, courtesy of HockeyViz:
Possession Stats
Here’s how Strome has fared in possession stats over the past three seasons:
The GF% is trailing quite a bit behind his xGF%, which should be an indicator that an increase in offensive production should soon follow.
It’s not statistically likely that the Capitals will continue to trend at a -10% differential between GF and xGF for the entirety of the season, especially as the roster gets healthier. The best may yet to come for Strome in that regard.
Conclusion
The Capitals’ acquisition of Dylan Strome might be one of the highest returns on investment in terms of player-value across the league from this off-season. Strome only makes $3.5M against the cap, so his positional flexibility and current performance should land him a long-term contract with the Capitals.
Strome has been consistently one of the best players on the ice for the Caps, and if these numbers trend in the direction we’re seeing, will likely stay that way for the remainder of the season.
By Justin Trudel