Photo by Juan Ocampo/NHLI via Getty Images
The day after the Capitals dealt Dmitry Orlov and Garnet Hathaway to the Boston Bruins, NHL insider Darren Dreger reported that the Capitals had entered the Jakob Chychrun sweepstakes. This made it clear that General Manager Brian MacLellan is pursuing the strategy of retooling the team on the fly in hopes of putting a team worthy of playoff contention on the ice next season.
In this post, we’ll take a dive into Chychrun’s on-ice performance and player value, as well as identifying reasons why (and why not) the Capitals should acquire the defenseman. The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference, CapFriendly, HockeyViz, and Evolving Hockey. If you’d like to learn more about the statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL Analytics Glossary.
Background
Jakob Chychrun was drafted in the first round of the 2016 NHL Entry Draft by the Arizona Coyotes. Chychrun made the Coyotes’ roster out of training camp, and has not spent any time in the AHL since.
It’s clear that he was one of the most draft-ready prospects in his draft class. The 2016 draft had plenty of top-end talent, including Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Matthew Tkachuk, teammate Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev, and Charlie McAvoy (to name a few).
Chychrun is effectively an NHL vet at this point, but only turns 25 at the end of March. He’s signed for two more years after this season with a relatively affordable cap hit of $4.6M.
The knock on Chychrun is his durability; he’s never played a full 82 game season. Prior to this season, where he has been scratched for “trade reasons” a handful of times, he’s only played in 337 of a possible 492 games (68.5%). That’s a lot of missed time for a player that would effectively be one of your top defensemen and could cost a pretty penny to acquire in a trade.
On Ice Performance
Let’s take a look at how Chychrun has performed during five-on-five play this season:
Overall, Chychrun has performed moderately well in the key on-ice performance indicators. One thing to keep in mind is just how bad the Coyotes roster is, and the metrics are largely impacted by the lack of depth on the roster.
What’s impressive here is the Coyotes’ goals for percentage (GF%) when Chychrun is on the ice. Nearly 60% of the goals scored during five-on-five play are when Chychrun is on the ice are for the Coyotes. That’s not bad considering they allow the majority of shots on goal (SF%) and fall below the 50% margin for high-danger chances for (HDCF%) and high-danger goals for (HDGF%).
Here’s the isolated impact of Chychrun on the Coyotes, courtesy of HockeyViz:
Chychrun adds a lot, offensively to the Coyotes during five-on-five play, resulting in a 3% increase in expected goals for per sixty minutes of play (xGF/60).
The interesting part is that he’s relatively inconsequential on the power play, although he has offensive chops. He’s not quite a black hole defensively, but there’s room for improvement there.
When on the ice, the result of the Coyotes, defensively is a 1% reduction in effectiveness in expected goals allowed per sixty minutes of play (xGA/60) and his performance on the penalty kill mirrors that. The key here is that the visual is only using xGF and xGA as an evaluator and not actual goals for or goals against.
When on the power play this season, he’s been on the ice for 10 goals for and 0 goals against. Chychrun has only played 21 minutes of time on ice during the penalty kill, and was on the ice for two goals in that scenario. During five-on-five play, he’s been on the ice for 35 goals for and 25 goals against. That’s certainly not bad for a guy playing on the rebuilding Coyotes.
Here’s Chychrun’s Rate Adjusted Plus-Minus chart from Evolving Hockey:
To continue on the point, Chychrun is really effective during five-on-five play. He’s above replacement level in goals for per sixty (GF/60), xGF/60, Corsi shot attempts for (CF/60), xGA/60, and Corsi shot attempts against per sixty (CA/60). When Chychrun is on the ice (and that’s the key for him), he’s a really effective player to have on your back end.
The power play is a relatively different story. The Coyotes have the 23rd ranked power play in the league at 19.7% effectiveness. That’s where the struggles in the GF/60 column play here for Chychrun. Chychrun does show an impact on xGF/60 at a league level, so there’s certainly chances being generated.
Chychrun’s player value
Now that we’ve taken a look at the key on-ice performance indicators, let’s take a look at how much value Chychrun has accrued using Goals Above Replacement (GAR) as a measurement. Here’s how Chychrun’s GAR has looked by season over time:
After a down season last year, Chychrun has rebounded well with a 6.6 GAR in only 36 games played so far this season. Currently, a GAR of 6.6 would slot in at fourth for defensemen on the Capitals roster, and the three defensemen in front of him have played in 60 or more games this season. Chychrun’s GAR/60 of .472 would rank second amongst Capitals’ defensemen, only trailing Erik Gustafsson (.641).
Here’s Chychrun’s GAR/60 over his career:
Chychrun’s current GAR/60 of .472 is the highest of his career so far, and he’s seen positive trajectory in that metric over the course of his career. At nearly 25 years old, he hasn’t really even hit his prime career years quite yet, so more improvement (as long as he can stay on the ice) is bound to happen.
Here’s how Chychrun has performed in GAR over the course of his career:
Overall, the 19-20 campaign was Chychrun’s finest. He drove a lot of value in only 63 games played, and he’s accruing his GAR at a lower pace than he is this season. If Chychrun wasn’t being held out of the lineup for trade reasons, then we could see even more value being generated.
Most of Chychrun’s value is generated in defensive GAR, followed by his offensive GAR. The only area he generates negative value consistently is in penalty GAR, where he ends up taking more penalties than he draws. That’s only a minor negative to his overall value, where he stands up as at least a top four defenseman, and could get even better. If he can stay healthy, his true ceiling is a team’s number one defenseman who can perform at both ends of the ice.
Should the Caps trade for Chychrun?
As I’ve touched on a couple times in this post, the biggest knock on Chychrun is his durability. That’s a very valid concern when acquiring a talent like Chychrun, especially for the Capitals, who have dealt with the most man-games lost due to injury this season.
One of the points of retooling the roster on the fly is to invest in younger talent who can support the aging core of the roster. The other point is that you hope that younger players have less wear on their tires and are more likely to be available for games than veterans who have aches and pains from a decade plus of heavy NHL hockey.
The talent is certainly there for Chychrun. The Capitals currently have one defenseman under contract next season in John Carlson. Acquiring Chychrun would give the Capitals some roster and cap certainty entering the off-season where MacLellan will be shopping for assets on the trade market and in free agency. For a legitimate top four or likely top pairing defenseman, Chychrun’s cap hit of $4.6M is really affordable.
The question of affordability comes down to the cost of acquiring Chychrun. Arizona General Manager Bill Armstrong is floating Chychrun at a “hefty price tag” via Pierre LeBrun (The Athletic). That price tag has been reported as two first round picks and a prospect for Chychrun. Ultimately, higher-end prospects might result in some budging off of that second first round pick, but the juice has to be worth the squeeze for the Coyotes to move Chychrun.
In terms of the Capitals, trading their own first round pick this season should be off the table. Over the next few games leading up to the trade deadline, the Capitals’ season could go in a myriad of directions: the bottom completely falling out, staying steady in the standings, or making a push into the playoffs. The first two directions are the most likely considering the quality of the current roster and the injury factor.
The upcoming NHL entry draft is one of the finer ones in recent memory, so losing out on a potential lottery pick at this point could really degrade the opportunity to pad a rather woeful prospect pipeline.
Realistically, if the Capitals would match the Coyotes price tag for Chychrun, a potential package would likely be Boston’s 2023 first round pick (acquired in the Orlov and Hathaway trade), Washington’s 2024 first round pick, and one of Connor McMichael or Hendrix Lapierre. If that sounds like a steep package, it is.
In order for the Capitals to compete for the remainder of the Ovechkin Era, some brash moves may need to be made. The consequence of extending the competitive window is kicking the rebuild can down the road. Typically, teams that do that enter into longer rebuilds (see Detroit post 2018). Chychrun fully fits the mold the Capitals are targeting for the roster moving forward: young, high quality players that can boost the performance of its aging core.
The biggest question for MacLellan is: if you win another Cup in the Ovechkin Era, do you care if there’s a longer rebuild after Ovi hangs up the skates?
By Justin Trudel
I think they should pull the trigger. He’s proven. Two first rounds and a prospect are all unproven, will take 2-3 years to develop, and won’t help in the push to get Ovi another cup.
That’s certainly a reason why the Caps should do it. There’s no point in trying to remain competitive during the remaining window of the Ovi Era without going all in, we’re just going to have to deal with the consequences when that window slams shut. Hopefully the assets Mac can gain during this season’s sell-off can pad some of the blow that dealing prospects and picks can deal to a franchise nearing the end of its competitive window.
Personally, I have no problem with getting an impactful player, but the team’s prospect cupboard is mixed and not as deep as I think it should be. And as much as I may get flak for it, I don’t think the Caps have a super strong chance at a SC run unless the aging core can somehow figure out how to keep up with younger, faster teams like New Jersey and Carolina to compete for playoff positioning in the East and.or the team starts giving players like McMichael, Snively, etc a chance to develop and make an impact in the NHL lineup. I would love them to get Alex another Cup but I’m also not going to complain if they don’t and he claims the Goals record.
Too expensive. Way too risky. I like the idea of building a competitive team next year for Ovie. But let’s not suck for 15 years by trading away first round picks. We can stock up on draft picks now and BMac will have some cap space to add a significant free agent or two. And we have good players in Hershey. Our veteran core has aged out. We have to add star prospects this summer!
That’s the rub, Lance. Do the Caps want to empty the tank for the next three years and a shot for another cup for Ovi, or do they want to begin preparing for life after Ovi.
BMac has to be realistic here. The core of the team is too old even if we add Cale Makar. Ovie’s best chance at a Cup is a team of young energetic guys and a few remaining vets (Oshie, Kuzy, Carlson maybe, Wilson definitely). Trading away picks only works if you’re already a top team. Otherwise, you’re just giving away good players for nothing like we did with Forsberg.
Mac is up against it, I have a feeling. This could be his toughest 6 months so far.
BMac has his work laid out. This trade deadline is the time to sell. The value of our available players is at an all-time high.
The Orlov/Hathaway trade feels great. BMac almost certainly turned 2 UFAs into at least 1 good NHL player. Maybe 2.
Our core is old right now. This time next year will only be worse. That’s the reality. We would need about 4 young stars to lift up our old stars. It’s unrealistic. We can load up on prospects now and sign a few free agents over the summer. With a new head coach we can be more competitive next season.
I think the issue with the Caps’ prospect pipeline is there’s a clear lack of top end prospects. That’s kind of to be expected with a team that’s been in the mix for the Cup every season for the past 15 years or so. McMichael, Lapierre, Miroshnichenko, and Iorio can likely support a core group at the NHL level, but they’re not really core players themselves. Miro probably has the best shot of being a top line type player out of the four though.
The problem for the Caps next year is that in order to get back to true competitor levels, we need more than one or two signings. The defense requires a complete retool and signing free agents results in longer term deals for too much money. Acquiring younger talent that are high caliber NHL talent just ends up costing more in assets than in cap space.
I do agree that the Caps need to add some depth to their prospect pool, and that’s the main reason why the Caps’ 2023 first rounder should be off the table. There’s a decent chance that pick ends up being a top ten pick, and with the draft lottery, you never know what can happen.
Pagnotta reported that Caps and Sheary arent close and he and Eller are targets for other teams, the thing with the Caps is they are a good team just injuries have killed them this year, so they have assests to get the likes of 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounders. Chychrun is a difference maker and at only 24 and a great cap hit, shoot on July 1, 2024 when he can sign a new deal, get him locked up for 8 years and be the face of the defense for the future after the Ovi era. So, gain assests between now and Friday and get Chychrun for the long haul, hes a stud
I agree to extent. But someone could trade for him and lock him down. That’s the benefit I see for doing it now. He’s wide open to all in the summer, a could go for a very high (overpay?) bid and we don’t exactly have the deepest pockets.
To me, the Capitals would be cutting five years off the age of their blueline (looking at the overall change by parting ways with a Orlov and replacing with Chychrun) and replace Orlov with a comparable player (+/-). The question is, does the first round and a prospect equal the five years of age savings? (The other first round for Orlov would be a wash in my mind). Draft picks are anything but certain, so I’m ok with the other first round pick going to Arizona. It gets down to the prospect we lose. That needs some additional thought.
Going from the latest piece Tarik wrote for the Athletic, it sounds like BMac isn’t looking to trade our first round pick. You can never say never when it comes to trades, but I didn’t get the impression he was actively shopping around our top prospects either.
I’m not too concerned with our forwards actually but we do need to bolster our defence core. Chychrun or someone who at least knows how to keep a puck in the offensive zone would be nice.
I do believe the Caps can add a bit more scoring touch to their forward group. Mantha hasn’t really been what Mac has wanted him to be, and the only guy you can really depend on for 30+ goals is Ovi. Looking back at the really successful 2015-16, 2016-17, and 2017-18 teams, they had guys like Jakub Vrana, Andre Burakovsky, and Brett Connolly that could score 20+ goals in middle six roles. The Caps are definitely lacking there and that’s probably why we haven’t seen a lot of high flying offense from this team.
If you can sell Jensen for a first round pick (or a bit more), it could really help the Capitals bolster a package for Chychrun without having to give up their own picks. That mitigates some of the risk because you’re basically looking at two late first round picks and a prospect for a true top pairing defenseman that would be an optimal partner for John Carlson on a pairing. Chychrun has looked really solid next to Shayne Gostisbehere, who has his own issues defensively.
The Caps can make other shrewd moves on the blue line in free agency, and hopefully Alexeyev takes the next step in his development to solidify himself at least as a third pairing defenseman. At that point, if you acquire Chychrun, you just need to acquire two right handed defensemen in free agency or via trade. You could bring back van Riemsdyk on a team-friendly deal (or let him walk if he wants more money/term), and then swing for a bigger name RHD.
Overall, there’s a pretty decent team on paper already, at least for the forwards. With your center depth looking like Strome, Kuznetsov, Backstrom, and Dowd, you are pretty set down the middle. That makes Lapierre and McMichael a bit more expendable in my eyes.
I have a feeling they’re thinking that Milano, with a full year with the team, will be one of those 20 goal guys. That’s why they extended him. Then you bank on healthy years from Wilson and Oshie, and there’s two more 20 goal scorers
Not saying I necessarily agree, just saying what I believe is the mindset of Caps management.
Yeah, I see what you’re saying there. It’s just getting hard to bank on Oshie being healthy for a full season at this point. The Caps could certainly use someone with a higher finishing ability to add to the middle six.
I would be shocked, amazed, delighted if the Caps could get a 1st in this year’s draft for renting Jensen. Maybe a 2nd if somebody gets desperate, but not a 1st. He’s a great skater, good puck mover, average defender at best. A 2nd would be great, a 3rd and a decent prospect would be fine too.
A package with Eller or Sheary, should net that 1st rounder, and more, with the insane prices GMs are paying. It’s a veritable arms race in the East. Boston, TB, NYI, NYR and Toronto have all loaded up. Edmonton, Dallas, LA and others are still looking to swing deals
I would be ecstatic if they can get a multi-pick package including a 1st from anybody in return for Jensen, Eller AND Sheary! So, Kim, get on the phone and get it done!
I thought the team needs more toughness, but my proposal of Captain the Dog, and a mascot to be named for Andre “Poodle” Lessier was turned down.
Sam “Small Print” Lyman is, however, available, for working on those difficult contracts, or bailing your player out of jail.
I agree they are in pretty good shape offensively, with 4 proven NHL Cs and Protas. To fill out the wings they also have Miroschnichenko, Suzdalev and Trineyev in the pipeline, and should sign Frank. They also have about 1,000 bottom-six forwards in the system, so they should definitely NOT be worried about filling out the bottom 2 lines. With those guys in the pipeline, they could deal either Lapierre or McMichael (but not both, please) IF they think Chychrun’s health issues aren’t serious.
On the other hand, I don’t think the D is in as bad shape as some appear to believe it is. I think they have 3 NHL LD right now in Fehervary, Alexeyev and Johansen, though only Fehervary looks like a potential 1LD as of now. He has all the tools that Chychrun does, he just hasn’t put it all together yet. I’d like to see what a teaching coaching staff could do with him and the other 2 young LDs. Gabriel Carlsson might also be a potential 3LD if all they want is a big bodied defender.
On RD they have Carlson, assuming he regains form, and Iorio, but given the potential youth on the left side, it would be nice to have another veteran RD. If they can talk TVR into coming back for 3 years at ~$2M — double his current cost — that would be fine, given how cheap the rest of the D corps would be excluding Carlson.
They also have Chesley as a future RD. If they can talk him into leaving school early, either this year or next, then they have 2 very promising young RD as well.
And finally, I have watched Gucciardi enough this year to have seen some flashes of real talent… as well as a tendency to make boneheaded decisions. If he matures enough to eliminate the stupidity, he is also a future LD candidate.
My bottom line is that the Caps’ defensive cupboard isn’t bare, it just doesn’t have a proven 1LD and there is at least one hole for a veteran 2RD to fill, maybe a need for a 3RD if Iorio and/or Chesley aren’t a near-term answer. If Chychrun isn’t a big health risk and they can get him for a reasonable price, they should do it, but they shouldn’t overspend for him.
My question is, what were the injuries Chychrun has had?
If they are the type that required major reconstructions (ACLs, separated shoulders, Achilles tears, etc.) then I would be wary. Similarly with any kind of head or core injuries, including concussions or anything with his hip or groin areas. Those are indications of likely decline, no matter what his age.
On the other hand, if he has had a few minor broken bones, muscle pulls, some sprained limbs, or things like that, I wouldn’t worry. Those may be indicators of bad luck which could even out over time.
Remember that Orlov had a couple of injuries when he was young, then got healthy and has stayed healthy for many years.
Minor broken bones? Lemme guess, you’ve never broken a bone, have you? It never feels minor!
I played youth hockey and then was a martial artist for decades… I liked contact… I’ve broken multiple bones, had multiple knee surgeries, torn labra, etc. If it ain’t a major structural bone, just set it and it’ll be okay in 4-6 weeks (in fact some of the digits I broke worked better after the orthopedist finally fixed them… ).
On the other hand, breaks to load-bearing bones like leg bones are often a long-term issue — they never seem to heal fully, no matter how much titanium they use. I didn’t have any of those, thankfully.
I could maybe deal with Boston’s first and one of the two Bears. But no way Boston’s first and our 2024 1st (which sadly could be better than our first this year, I mean a year older) and a top prospect.
Yeah, the costs starts becoming “steep” at that point. Of Mac could get a bit of wiggle on that, it become really attractive
Including the Caps’ 2024 first round pick is certainly risky. I think you only include that pick if you can’t net another first round pick from another player on the roster being sold at the deadline. Jensen should be able to net a first rounder as a really solid top four right handed defenseman with an affordable cap hit. If the Caps retain 50% of Jensen’s salary, most any contender with a first to spend would likely step up. If Tampa hadn’t spent all that capital on Tanner Jeannot, Jensen would have made a ton of sense for them to pair with Victor Hedman instead of hampering him with Zach Bogosian.
Realistically, with Mac wanting to do a retool on the fly, basically any of the assets gained by selling at this year’s deadline are going to be trade fodder. I’d be surprised if they’re flipped this deadline (since the Caps should really try to maximize the value of their 2023 first rounder), but they could be used prior to the draft either to move around the draft board or acquire solid talent that are in the age range of 23-28.
Where are you seeing any inside information indicating that Jensen is worth a 1st? As I indicated in another post, I’d be thrilled if that’s what they got for him, but I just don’t see that for a mid-level RD.
I think that the Cap own 1st rounder should be completely off the table. The Boston 1st and a prospect like Chesley or maybe Lapierre is tolerable, but not ideal. If BMac can obtain decent draft capita in the next 4 days, then again, tolerable, but nothing to get excited about
To be honest there is NO scenario where this team should trade any picks or prospects. this is not a Cup team and has not bee for several year and will not be for probably a decade the way the owner and Gm are dragging on a rebuild. They are not ever a legitimate playoff team anymore as just making the playoffs to lose in the first round for 4 years means nothing except lower draft picks. This team needs some high picks to rebuild and become a legit Cup team again and for the owner to stop worrying about a damn scoring record. That is an individual goal NOT a team goal. The CUP is a TEAM goal and that I’m sure every player would rather have including Ovie!! Lapierre will be your #2 center either next season or in ’24/25. You don’t trade away good young center as the Caps have done in the past; see Chandler Stephenson for the perfect example of why NOT to trade a player.
Not sure what the point would be in pulling the trigger before the deadline. Definitely one for the summer.
You get him before the masses get an open shot at him. Caps would definitely be outbid at that point.
The Coyotes are being really patient on a package for Chychrun, and they could certainly opt to wait until after the season to deal him. The real reason why you’d want to acquire him before the deadline would be to give Mac a bit more certainty on the blue line going into the off-season, and the other would be what another commenter replied here: more teams will have the cap and roster space to make a bid on Chychrun after the season.
Lightning get Tanner Jeannot from Preds, for a king’s ransom: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th, not all in one year. Plus the gold fillings from Julien Brisebois’ mouth. Just kidding about the last part….maybe
Lordy, that’s a steep price! If there’s a time to sell for the Caps it’s now.
Oops, I also missed where the Lightning included Cal Foote in that package. I thought just the draft picks were bad….
There’s a lot of head scratching on Twitter from NHL commentators and analysts for that trade package. Tampa historically has overpaid at the deadline for bottom six type guys (like paying a first rounder for Barclay Goodrow a few years back), and it has worked out for them. I just don’t see how Jeannot cost this much, especially with his performance following a really strong year for him last year.
If Jeannot can get that type of return, who knows what a guy like Nick Jensen can get…
This is crazy… I just hope the Caps can cash in on this lunacy and trade every UFA (plus the entire coaching staff and the Zamboni drivers) for these sorts of returns.
This one really puzzles me. Cal has been a disappointment and I think all Bolts fans expected him to be traded. But to give away all those draft picks is just unfathomable. I would rather BB had given his gold fillings instead.
It all looks a lot better if Nick Backstom decides to retire and we have $9M to go after free agents,
That ain’t gonna happen. Seriously. Just get it out of your mind, right now!
Nick is owed $9.2 M for two more years, after this one. Now if you were owed $18.4M would you VOLUNTARILY give it up? We can see he can still play hockey, he won’t be going back on LTIR, unless, God forbid, he sustains another injury, he’s effectively untradeable, so he’s gonna be here for two more years. End of story.
NO and that is the problem with many players. Nick just does not have that extra gear like he used to and at this point in his career has nothing to prove. Should he retire…..yes…..will he retire…no because he wants the money.. Sad that at $9.2 a year he is more a detriment to this team than McMichael or Lapierre would be at this time. It is truly sad to see good players hang on past their prime and useful date. And unlike football or baseball there is no place to hide him unless he gets injured again. .
Nick never had an extra gear. He was able to slow the game down to his speed because he had great vision and anticipation, plus excellent puck protection skills. That hasn’t come back completely yet, but could with more time.
Even so, he’s got 9 points in 19 games and is winning his fair share of face-offs, so he isn’t as completely washed up as a lot of folks are claiming on these boards.
He probably isn’t going to get back to being worth $9.2M, but it doesn’t matter if the Caps can bring in enough good, young, cheap players to enable him and Kuznetsov to be overpriced — which both are at this point, this year, and probably will be for the rest of their contracts.
Kuzy was overpaid on his first contract and agree Backy i way overpaid now. IMHO Backys problem has always been pass first and not shoot. If he shot more he would be a far more dangerous player especially on the PP.
Darren Dreger is reporting the Oilers and Preds are discussing Mattias Ekholm. Would love to have Ekholm on the Caps. Old school, rough and tough, stay at home guy. But it’s the same old story. At age 32, he’s too old. We need to get younger. Period.
https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2023/02/edmonton-oilers-nashville-predators-discussing-mattias-ekholm.html#ref=home
Yeah, he’s a bit on the older side, and he’s pretty expensive on a long term deal. That contract would eat into the ability to add more talent to the roster too.
Yes! Do it. Do it.
To me it all comes down to who the prospect is. The two #1’s, ok, as long as it’s not this years Caps pick, I’m fine with it. I’m fine with McMichael being the prospect as well. If you’re not changing the coach (and it doesn’t look like we are), McMicheal isn’t going to get much ice time anyway. Lapierre…… no thanks. I like his upside and I think he does get a chance next season. If Orlov traded (who we couldn’t afford anyway) and McMichael, plus our 2024 #1 pick gets it done, I’ll take that deal. We’re a better team next season for that move.