Welcome to the 13th installment of our Washington Capitals weekly trends report. The regular feature provides a very brief snapshot of the most relevant statistical trends for the Capitals over the past seven days.
The following table lists the Capitals team stats and league rankings for last week (Left side) after 45 games, and the current stats and rankings for today, after 49 games. The colors indicate improving (green) and/or worsening (red) trends over the past week. [Click to enlarge]
[The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and the NoVa Caps Advanced Analytics Model (NCAAM). If you’d like to learn more about the statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL Analytics Glossary]
THE WEEK
The Capitals began the week with a 4-3 overtime win over the Islanders in New York on Monday. They then took one on the chin the following night in a 4-2 loss to the Minnesota Wild at Capital One Arena. The team then headed west and started their three-game western road trip with a 4-0 win over the Coyotes in Arizona. They wrapped-up this week’s snapshot with a 6-2 blowout loss at the hands of the Golden Knights in Vegas on Saturday night.
NEGATIVES
Power Play – The Capitals power play continues to stagnate and dip for the 5th consecutive week and has ranked consistently around 17-20 since mid-December. [Click to enlarge]
Some will say the absence of John Carlson has hindered the Capitals power play. However, the stats don’t necessarily back that up.
The Capitals had a power play success rate of 20.8 percent when Carlson was injured on December 23. They currently have a success rate of 20.5. The Capitals power play ranked 20th in the league when John Carlson was injured. They are currently ranked 18th in the league
Goals For And Against – The Capitals goals for and goals against average per game dropped for the third-straight week, however, the goals against average remains in the top 10 (10th) in the league. The goals for average dropped as low as 27th in the league in November, but steadily improved until three weeks ago. In contrast to the power play struggles, the recent decline may actually be a direct correlation to the absence of John Carlson.
POSITIVES
Possession Metrics – The Capitals possession metrics improved in all key categories after dropping for the previous three weeks. This is a good sign for longer-term health for the team, although they still reside in the middle of the pack in most categories. Again, the team dug themselves a statistical hole in the first 4-6 weeks of the season, and have been trying to climb out ever since.
Faceoffs – The Capitals faceoff winning percentage continues to climb, although it took a hit against the Vegas Knights. They were sitting at 49.92% following the Coyotes game and looking to climb above the 50% threshold for the first time in more than two seasons prior to the game against the Knights.
Penalties Taken – The Capitals continue to reduce their penalties taken, and now are 6th-best in the league in that category.
THE WEEK AHEAD
The Capitals begin next week’s snapshot against the Avalanche in Denver for their final game of their three-game road trip on Tuesday. They then return home for a tilt with the Penguins at Capital One Arena on Thursday night. The Capitals then close-out the month of January and next week’s snapshot on the road with games in Toronto next Sunday and Columbus next Tuesday.
By Jon Sorensen
SEASON TOTALS
Power play is going to sit where it is, regardless of injuries. It’s stale. We need fresh ideas and a fresh perspective.
I can’t remember the last time the Capitals faceoff winning percentage was over 50%. Possibly the Beagle years.
I’ve been researching that. Our game-by-gsme database only covers last two seasons plus for faceoff winning percentage. Nothing above 50% in that time frame.
NHL says 2017-18 Caps were 50.4
Stingrays: In their third game this weekend and his second start in two days, Clay started the game but gave up 2 goals in 3 shots and was replaced by Tyler Wall 6 minutes in. He caught his one save in his glove, was screened for the first goal, and just let in a one-on-one. Other than letting in two goals, I didn’t see anything wrong with him. But during a media timeout he and the equipment manager went down the tunnel and he didn’t come back. Announcers said they never learned what was wrong with him.
After a truly terrible 1-5 first period, Bear Hughes scored the only goal of the second with assists from Martin Has and Carter Turnbull. Rays just could not pull themselves out of their first period hole and lost to the Icemen 5-4. Bear now has 16 goals and 21 assists in 34 games.