Bettor Sense: Best Over/Under Points Bets To Take For Final NHL Standings

Photo: NHL.com

A week ago, we posted the standings points values that Las Vegas assigned each NHL team for the 2022-23 season. There were plenty that seemed about right while others got a few to lick their chops over the value that comes with them.

NoVa Caps’ Harrison Brown and Jon Sorensen each make six picks that provide the best value from the Las Vegas point projections released last week.


HARRISON’S BEST PICKS

Toronto Maple Leafs 107.5 (Take The Under)

The Maple Leafs still have an excellent team led by center and reigning Maurice Richard Trophy winner Auston Matthews, right-wings Mitch Marner and William Nylander, and center John Tavares.

However, their goaltending tandem of Ilya Samsonov, who finished last season 23-12-5 with an .896 save percentage, a 3.02 goals-against average, and three shutouts with the Capitals, and Matt Murray, who went 5-12-2 with a .906 save percentage, 3.05 goals-against average, and one shutout in 20 NHL games with the Ottawa Senators and and was even assigned to the AHL, could hold this team back unless one takes a big step forward. For a team trying to get over the hump and make a run, pinning it on these two goaltenders is a huge risk.

Florida Panthers 105.5 (Take The Under)

Plenty of damage was done to the roster that won the Presidents’ Trophy last season after losing left-wing Jonathan Huberdeau, defensemen Ben Chiarot and MacKenzie Weegar, center Claude Giroux, right-wing Mason Marchment, and head coach Andrew Brunette. While Matthew Tkachuk is a unique player and should thrive in Florida, he alone will not be enough to make up for the losses of Huberdeau, Giroux, and Marchment up front.

Because of salary cap constraints, the Panthers were not able to bring in appropriate reinforcements to replace what they lost. Now, their offense is top heavy, their defense has a hole in their top-four group, and the team has a goaltender that they tried to trade earlier this offseason as their starter.

Carolina Hurricanes 102.5 (Take The Over)

The Hurricanes added left-wing Max Pacioretty, defenseman Dylan Coghlan, right-wing Ondrej Kase, and defenseman Brent Burns over the offseason. While losing defenseman Anthony DeAngelo hurts, Burns should be a fine replacement.

Pacioretty will be out until February with a torn Achilles but acquired him for free, so they aren’t necessarily missing anything from last season and will get him in the lineup eventually.

The team should be favorites for the Metropolitan Division crown and maybe even the Presidents’ Trophy.

Minnesota Wild 101.5 (Take The Under)

The Wild lost their second leading scorer from last season in left-wing Kevin Fiala and starting goaltender in Cam Talbot. Buying out right-wing Zach Parise and defenseman Ryan Suter in July 2021 has damaged their roster and they still lack a true No. 1 center.

Vegas Golden Knights 97.5 (Take The Under)

Losing one of their top scorers in Pacioretty, another consistent 20+ goal scorer in right-wing Evgenii Dadonov, and a defenseman entering his prime in Coghlan already changed their roster for the worse. Downgrading their goaltending from Robin Lehner to a potential timeshare between Logan Thompson and Adin Hill is also a cause for concern in Vegas.

Vancouver Canucks 92.5 (Take The Over)

The Canucks have one of the deepest forward groups in hockey after bringing in right-wing Ilya Mikheyev. They may need another defenseman to push the Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers but have a stud young goalie in Thatcher Demko.


JON’S BEST PICKS

Pittsburgh Penguins 102.5 (Take The Under)

Pittsburgh is aging in a young and improving Metro division. Vegas sees the dip coming for the Penguins and I completely agree. They totaled 103 points last season, but lost scoring during the off-season. Add a much better Columbus team and an improved Jersey team to the division and it’s easy to see the Pens lose several standings points. Vegas currently has the Pens ranked higher than the Rangers which is heard to fathom. The overstating of the Pens is typical, as there is usually plenty of money on them in the early going. This is easy money.

Vegas Golden Knights 97.5 (Take The Under)

Vegas has been in a steady decline over the past few seasons, and that continued this off-season. They recorded 94 standings points last season, and I see no way the team has improved, while other division and conference competition has improved. This is the second best bet behind the Penguins “under”.

Ottawa Senators 86.5 (Take The Over)

Vegas oddsmakers see a much improved Senators team this season and I agree. Even 2-3 points more than Vegas. The player additions are significant, but the steadying of the organization is maybe more important, as they seemed to have (finally) found solid ground. I see at least 87 points for Ottawa this season

Nashville Predators 96.5 (Take The under)

The Predators racked up 97 points last season, but their offseason was a net negative. It’s very difficult to find any way this team maintains their standings points from last season. I see more than a half point dip for the 2022-23 Predators campaign.

Columbus Blue Jackets 81 (Take The Over)

The Blue Jackets amassed 81 points last season, which is the current over/under number for the Jackets this season. It’s easy to over-project Columbus because of the impressive additions they made this off-season, but I still see the Jackets improving to 83-84 points.

Florida Panthers 105.5 (Take The Under)

I completely agree with Harrison’s take. I don’t see the Florida Panthers completely falling off, but the off-season re-tool is a net negative for Florida. Vegas sees a severe drop off as well. I think it will be even more than what Vegas predicts.

By Harrison Brown and Jon Sorensen

About Harrison Brown

Harrison is a diehard Caps fan and a hockey fanatic with a passion for sports writing. He attended his first game at age 8 and has been a season ticket holder since the 2010-2011 season. His fondest Caps memory was watching the Capitals hoist the Stanley Cup in Las Vegas. In his spare time, he enjoys travel, photography, and hanging out with his two dogs. Follow Harrison on Twitter @HarrisonB927077
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3 Responses to Bettor Sense: Best Over/Under Points Bets To Take For Final NHL Standings

  1. Anonymous says:

    While the Florida decline is anticipated I think Vegas has too much of a drop.

  2. Anonymous says:

    Boston getting disrespected- some of it justified, but they still have an extremely strong core group.

  3. Diane Doyle says:

    Boston’s main issue is the fact they have so many players out with injury to start the season, to include Marchand and several defensemen. Plus, they have aging core players, to include Bergeron and Marchand. They could begin the season at a severe disadvantage.

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