Jacob Lynn/Tampa Bay Lightning

In a shortened NHL season thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic, in which teams are playing only within their divisions, there is no clear frontrunner for the Presidents’ Trophy, which is awarded to the team with the best record.

No division leader has posted a record drastically better than any of the other division leaders this season for the most part, have featured multiple teams contending for supremacy within their respective divisions.

The Presidents’ Trophy is the trophy awarded to the best regular season team. While winning the Stanley Cup is a team’s ultimate goal, winning the Presidents’ Trophy comes with the benefit of receiving home ice advantage in all rounds of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Analysis of the current Presidents’ Trophy contenders will include the division frontrunners for all four divisions and their main competitors that are within three points of them in the standings. This analysis will include both traditional statistics and advanced statistics, upcoming schedule, along with strength of competition.

Colorado Avalanche – The Colorado Avalanche have played 43 games and have posted a record of 30-9-4, 64 standings points, and a .744 points percentage. The Avs have won their last four games and have compiled a 9-1-0 record in their last 10 games.

Their Advanced Statistics at 5-on-5 Even-Strength, according to Natural Stat Trick are as follows:

The Avalanche are in first place in all six of those advanced statistical percentages, which indicates a very strong team. Their PDO at the moment is 1.008, slightly over the expected 1.000.

Their most notable remaining games this season include: two games against the Vegas Golden Knights, with whom they are fighting for the division lead, and three games against the St. Louis Blues, who are battling for the last playoff spot in the division. Their other remaining games are against the San Jose Sharks and Los Angeles Kings, who are both expected to miss the playoffs. The Avalanche have been idle since April 16, thanks to players on Covid-19 protocol and will not resume play until April 22, at the very earliest.

The one cloud on the horizon for them is the fact they currently have three players in Covid-19 protocol, including their number one goaltender, Philipp Grubauer. The team had shored up the goaltending prior to the deadline by acquiring Devan Dubnyk from the San Jose Sharks and, prior to that, had acquired Jonas Johansson. The question for the Avs is how badly would Covid-19 affect Grubauer and would it detract from his performance down the stretch and/or the early part of the playoffs. In addition, will the compressed schedule, due to the games they need to make up, adversely affect their performance.

Vegas Golden Knights – The Vegas Golden Knights have played 45 games and have posted a record of 32-11-2, 66 standings points, and a .733 points percentage. The Golden Knights have won their last seven games and have compiled a 8-2-0 record in their last 10 games. They are currently the frontrunner in the Presidents’ Trophy race, even though the Avalanche have a game in hand.

Their Advanced Statistics, according to Natural Stat Trick are as follows:

The Golden Knights rank in the upper quadrant in all six of those percentages, even if they don’t rank as high as the Colorado Avalanche, their main division rival, for this season which indicates a strong team in their own right. Their PDO at the moment is 1.017, slightly over the expected 1.000.

Their most notable remaining games this season include: two games against the Avalanche with whom they are fighting for the division lead, two games against the Minnesota Wild, who are solidly in third place, and two games each against the Blues and the Arizona Coyotes, who are battling for the last playoff spot in the division. Their other remaining games are against the San Jose Sharks and Anaheim Ducks, who are expected to miss the playoffs.

Carolina Hurricanes — The Carolina Hurricanes have played 45 games and have posted a record of 30-10-5, 65 standings points, and a .722 points percentage. The Hurricanes have compiled a 6-2-2 record in their last 10 games.

Their Advanced Statistics at 5-on-5 Even-Strength, according to Natural Stat Trick are as follows:

Carolina ranks in the upper quadrant in all six of those percentages, which indicates a strong team. Their PDO at the moment is 1.008, slightly over the expected 1.000.

Their most notable remaining games this season include two games against the Florida Panthers. Their other remaining games are against the Nashville Predators, Dallas Stars, and Chicago Blackhawks, who still have playoff hopes, and the Columbus Blue Jackets and Detroit Red Wings, who are expected to miss the playoffs. They will close out the season with two games against Nashville.

Tampa Bay Lightning — The Tampa Bay Lightning have played 46 games and have posted a record of 30-14-2, 62 standings points, and a .674 points percentage. The Lightning have compiled a 5-5-0  record in their last 10 games.

Their Advanced Statistics at 5-on-5 Even-Strength, according to Natural Stat Trick are as follows:

The Tampa Bay Lightning rank in the upper-third in all six of those percentages, with lower ranks in Expected Goals For Percentage and Scoring Chances For Percentage than in the other categories, which indicates a strong team. Their PDO at the moment is 1.011, slightly over the expected 1.000.

Their most notable remaining games this season include two games against the Florida Panthers to close out the season. Their other remaining games are against the Dallas Stars and the Chicago Blackhawks, who still have playoff hopes, and the Columbus Blue Jackets and Detroit Red Wings who are expected to miss the playoffs.

One potential cloud on their horizon is the health of their two main stars, Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov. Stamkos was recently placed on the Long-Term Injured Reserve List and is not eligible to return until May 3. Meanwhile, Kucherov has been out for the entire 2020-21 season and has only recently been skating. While they won the Stanley Cup last season, with Stamkos out for nearly the entire playoffs, their chances would be much better if both Stamkos and Kucherov were healthy.

Florida Panthers — The Florida Panthers have played 47 games and have posted a record of 30-12-5, 65 standings points, and a .691 points percentage. The Panthers have compiled a 6-3-1 record in their last 10 games and have won their last three.

Their Advanced Statistics at 5-on-5 Even-Strength, according to Natural Stat Trick are as follows:

The Florida Panthers rank in the upper-half through upper-fourth in all six of those percentages, with lower ranks in Corsi For Percentage and Goals For Percentage, than in the other categories which indicates a strong team. Their PDO at the moment is 1.002, slightly over the expected 1.000.

Their most notable remaining games this season include: two games against the Lightning and two games against the Hurricanes. Their other remaining games are against the Nashville Predators, Dallas Stars, and Chicago Blackhawks, who still have playoff hopes, and just one game left against the Blue Jackets, who are expected to miss the playoffs.

One cloud on the Panthers’ horizon is the fact that star defenseman Aaron Ekblad is out with a broken leg and is not expected to return until June at the very earliest.

Washington Capitals — The Washington Capitals have played 46 games and have posted a record of 29-13-4, 62 standings points, and a .674 points percentage. The Capitals have compiled a 6-4-0 record in their last 10 games.

Their Advanced Statistics at 5-on-5 Even-Strength, according to Natural Stat Trick are as follows:

The Washington Capitals have mediocre ranks in the Advanced Statistics percentages, with only the Goals For Percentage in the upper-third. Some analysts might assume that the team have overachieved in the standings; however, this performance has been typical for the team in recent years. It is likely that there are factors in the team’s performance that the current advanced statistics models do not capture, or the team could be due for a fall. The Caps do have Alex Ovechkin on their roster and their PDO at the moment is 1.022, which is more than the expected 1.000.

Their most notable remaining games this season include: three games against ,the New York Islanders, two games against the Pittsburgh Penguins, and one game against the Boston Bruins. Their other remaining games are against the Philadelphia Flyers and the New York Rangers whose playoff hopes are fading.

New York Islanders — The New York Islanders have played 46 games and have posted a record of 29-13-4, 62 standings points, and a .674 points percentage. The Islanders have compiled a 7-3-0 record in their last 10 games and have won their last two.

Their Advanced Statistics at 5-on-5 Even-Strength, according to Natural Stat Trick are as follows:

The Islanders have varying ranks in the Advanced Statistics percentages, with Goals For Percentage and Expected Goals For Percentage in the upper-quarter in the rankings, while the rest of them cluster in the middle-third in the rankings, with Corsi For Percentage being the worst, in 18th. Their PDO at the moment is 1.019, which is more than the expected 1.000.

Their most notable remaining games this season include: three games against Washington, and one game against the Boston Bruins. Their other remaining games are against the Philadelphia Flyers and the New York Rangers, whose playoff hopes are fading, and the Buffalo Sabres and New Jersey Devils, who have already been eliminated from the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Penguins — The Pittsburgh Penguins have played 46 games and have posted a record of 29-14-3, 61 standings points, and a .663 points percentage. The Penguins have compiled a 6-3-1 record in their last 10 games.

Their Advanced Statistics at 5-on-5 Even-Strength, according to Natural Stat Trick are as follows:

The Pittsburgh Penguins have mediocre ranks in the Advanced Statistics percentages, with all of them in the middle-third in the rankings, with Goals For Percentage being the worst, in 17th. Some analysts might assume that the team have overachieved in the standings. Like the Caps, this has been typical for the team in recent years. Either there are factors in the team’s performance that the current advanced statistics models do not capture or the team could be due for a fall. The Penguins do have Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel on their roster. Their PDO at the moment is 1.015, which is more than the expected 1.000.

Their most notable remaining games this season include: two games against the Capitals and two games against the Boston Bruins. Their other remaining games are against the Philadelphia Flyers and the New York Rangers whose playoff hopes are fading, and the Philadelphia Flyers, Buffalo Sabres, and New Jersey Devils. Scheduling-wise, the Penguins have a relatively easy schedule, as six of their remaining ten games are against non-playoff teams.

It appears the Penguins may be getting Evgeni Malkin back from injury, as he has resumed practicing with the team.

Toronto Maple Leafs — The Toronto Maple Leafs have played 45 games and have posted a record of 28-13-5, 61 standings points, and a .663 points percentage. The Maple Leafs have compiled a 5-3-2 record in the last 10 games.

Their Advanced Statistics at 5-on-5 Even-Strength, according to Natural Stat Trick are as follows:

All of their Advanced Statistics are in the upper-half of the rankings. Their Goals For Percentage, Expected Goals For Percentage, and Scoring Chances For Percentage are near the top. Their remaining statistics are in the upper-middle.

Their most notable remaining games this season include: three games against the Winnipeg Jets and three games against the Montreal Canadiens. Their other remaining games are against the Vancouver Canucks and the Ottawa Senators, who are both likely to miss the playoffs.

Conclusion
The season continues to promise very interesting races in at least three divisions, as well as the race for the Presidents’ Trophy. As of this writing, it appears that the frontrunners for the Presidents’ Trophy would be the winner of either the Honda West or the Discover Central Division, but this could certainly change. With no interdivisional play, it is hard to assess the comparative strength of this season’s divisions against each other. All statistics compiled this year were within closed systems.

Note: Advanced Statistics were obtained from Natural Stat Trick. Standings information from NHL.com.

Related Reading
East Division Status Report: How The Capitals Rank In Team Statistics Within The Division
Update on Capitals Shooting Statistics after 52 Games: Good or Bad, It’s “Steady As She Goes”

By Diane Doyle

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