Examining The Starts To Seasons For Ilya Samsonov Prior to Joining Washington Capitals

It has been a difficult start to the 2020-21 season for Capitals’ goalie, Ilya Samsonov, whose first two games were not up to his usual standards. He then tested positive for COVID-19, had to miss time for recovery and then needed additional time for conditioning with the Hershey Bears.

Many fans recall how he had a difficult first half of the season when he first came over to North America to play for the Bears. NoVa Caps decided to continue analyzing Samsonov’s starts to seasons, with particular attention being paid to his KHL career. His first game in the KHL was during the 2014-15 season, but given the fact that he only played in one game that season, the game will be ignored for purposes of this assessment.

This analysis will start with the 2015-16 season, which was the first year that he spent the vast majority of the season in the KHL and only a handful of games with their MHL affiliate. Playoff games and international competition will not be considered for this analysis.

2015-16 Season

For the 2015-16 season, Samsonov appeared in 19 games for Metallurg Magnitogorsk in the KHL, posting a record of 6-4-3. Those 19 games included three games where he had a token appearance. Samsonov had several other games where he played just over half the game or 2/3 of the game.

After 10 games, his save percentage was .928. His final save percentage for the season ended up at .925. His weakest stretch was from December 2, 2015 through January 18, 2016, where his appearances were sporadic. He was sent back briefly to the MHL after that. His performance improved upon his return to the KHL. In that season, he did not exhibit a pronounced slow start.

Nr	Date	Shots	GA	Save	W/L	Game Sv%	Ov Sve%
1	9/15/2015
2	9/20/2015	25	2	23	W	0.920	0.920
3	10/2/2015	16	1	15		0.938	0.927
4	10/9/2015	14	1	13	L	0.929	0.927
5	10/12/2015	20	1	19	W	0.950	0.933
6	10/14/2015	1		1		1.000	0.934
7	10/24/2015	13	1	12		0.923	0.933
8	10/26/2015	30		30	W	1.000	0.950
9	10/28/2015	36	5	31	L	0.861	0.929
10	11/21/2015	25	2	23	OTW	0.920	0.928
11	11/25/2015						0.928
12	11/27/2015	36	2	34	W	0.944	0.931
13	11/30/2015	26		26	W	1.000	0.938
14	12/2/2015	11	3	8		0.727	0.929
15	1/18/2016	20	4	16		0.800	0.919
16	1/29/2016	32	1	31		0.969	0.925
17	2/5/2016	32	3	29	W	0.906	0.923
18	2/16/2016	29	1	28	L	0.966	0.926
19	2/18/2016	20	2	18	OTW	0.900	0.925
	Total	386	29	357		0.925

2016-17 Season

For the 2016-17 season, Samsonov appeared in 27 games for Metallurg Magnitogorsk in the KHL, posting a record of 15-3-5. Those 26 games included five games where he had a token appearance, as in two minutes or less.

After his first nine appearances, his save percentage was .914. After his first fourteen appearances through the game of 11/19/2016, which included three token appearances and three other partial game appearances, his save percentage was .928.

After 18 games; i.e. the 2/3 mark, his save percentage was .934. His final save percentage for the season was .936. He definitely was off to a slow start that season, judging from this first nine games and his subsequent improvement.

Nr	Date	Shots	GA	Save	W/L	Game Sv%	Ov Sve%
1	9/13/2016	11	2	9	W	0.818	0.818
2	9/15/2016	5	1	4		0.800	0.875
3	9/20/2016	26	2	24	W	0.923	0.881
4	9/23/2016	39	1	38	W	0.974	0.926
5	9/26/2016	30	1	29	W	0.967	0.937
6	10/1/2016	13	3	10		0.769	0.919
7	10/4/2016				SOP		0.919
8	10/6/2016	11	2	9		0.818	0.911
9	10/13/2016	17	1	16	W	0.941	0.914
10	10/26/2016	34	2	32	W	0.941	0.919
11	11/8/2016				SOP		0.919
12	11/10/2016				SOP		0.919
13	11/12/2016	36	3	33	W	0.917	0.919
14	11/19/2016	43	1	42	W	0.977	0.928
15	11/21/2016	35		35	W	1.000	0.937
16	11/23/2016	39	1	38	W	0.974	0.941
17	11/25/2016	35	4	31	W	0.886	0.936
18	11/29/2016	35	3	32	L	0.914	0.934
19	12/8/2016	11		11	W	1.000	0.936
20	1/13/2017	23		23	W	1.000	0.951
21	1/15/2017	26	2	24	W	0.923	0.938
22	1/18/2017	44	4	40	L	0.909	0.936
23	1/25/2017	39	3	36	L	0.923	0.935
24	1/29/2017						0.935
25	2/1/2017	46	4	42	W	0.913	0.933
26	2/3/2017				SOP		0.933
27	2/17/2017	31		31	SOP	1.000	0.936
	Totals	629	40	589		0.936

2017-18 Season

For the 2017-18 season, Samsonov appeared in 26 games for Metallurg Magnitogorsk in the KHL, posting a record of 12-9-1. The 27 games included three games where he had played in six minutes or less and two games where he only played about half of the game.

His save percentage was .920 after nine games, including games through 10/1/2017. This was after three strong performances, as his save percentage after six games, through 9/24/2017, was .886.

After 14 games, which included two token appearances, his save percentage was .914, as he was going through a relatively rough stretch during October 2017. After 18 games, through 12/21/2017, his save percentage was also .914.

Samsonov got stronger during the last third of the season as he ended up with an overall save percentage of .926. Overall, his season had a rough start, but he rebounded, then there was a rough stretch through October and November.

Nr	Date	Shots	GA	Save	W/L	Game Sv%	Ov Sve%
1	8/27/2017	26	4	22	L	0.846	0.846
2	9/5/2017	29	2	27	W	0.931	0.891
3	9/8/2017	24	3	21	W	0.875	0.886
4	9/15/2017	30	4	26	L	0.867	0.881
5	9/22/2017	14	1	13	L	0.929	0.886
6	9/24/2017	35	4	31	W	0.886	0.886
7	9/26/2017	42	2	40	L	0.952	0.900
8	9/28/2017	48	2	46	W	0.958	0.911
9	10/1/2017	28	0	28	W	1.000	0.920
10	10/6/2017	2		2		1.000	0.921
11	10/8/2017	32	1	31	W	0.969	0.926
12	10/10/2017	19	4	15		0.789	0.918
13	10/16/2017						0.918
14	10/18/2017	42	5	37	L	0.881	0.914
15	10/24/2017	25	3	22	L	0.880	0.912
16	11/2/2017	2		2		1.000	0.912
17	11/22/2017	30	4	26	L	0.867	0.909
18	12/21/2017	35	1	34	W	0.971	0.914
19	12/25/2017	40	4	36	L	0.900	0.913
20	12/27/2017	34	1	33	W	0.971	0.916
21	1/3/2018	23	2	21	L	0.913	0.916
22	1/9/2018	17	1	16	L	0.941	0.917
23	1/18/2018	22		22	W	1.000	0.920
24	1/22/2018	32	1	31	W	0.969	0.922
25	2/27/2018	35		35	W	1.000	0.926
26	3/1/2018	25	2	23	W	0.920	0.926
		691	51	640		0.926

2018-19 Season

For the 2018-19 season, Samsonov played with the Hershey Bears in the AHL, posting a record of 20-14-3. His save percentage after ten games was .869. After twenty games, the approximate midpoint of the season, he had a save percentage of .871, which was after the game of 1/19/2019.

First 24 Games In North America

After 29 games, around the three quarters mark, his save percentage was .893. His final save percentage for the 2018-19 season was .898. In judging by quarters of the season, he appeared to improve each quarter, with the second quarter slightly better than first quarter but a more dramatic improvement during third quarter and more improvement during fourth quarter.

Nr	Date	Shots	GA	Save	W/L	Game Sv%	Ov Sv%
1	10/6/2018	31	3	28	L	0.903	0.903
2	10/12/2018	26	5	21	L	0.808	0.860
3	10/14/2018	28	4	24	L	0.857	0.859
4	10/27/2018	22	3	19	W	0.864	0.860
5	11/2/2018	36	2	34	W	0.944	0.881
6	11/3/2018	34	4	30	L	0.882	0.881
7	11/10/2018	33	2	31	W	0.939	0.890
8	11/11/2018	30	7	23	L	0.767	0.875
9	11/23/2018	29	6	23	L	0.793	0.866
10	11/28/2018	29	3	26	L	0.897	0.869
11	12/1/2018	18	4	14	L	0.778	0.864
12	12/8/2018	31	3	28	W	0.903	0.867
13	12/15/2018	23	5	18	L	0.783	0.862
14	12/22/2018	30	6	24	L	0.800	0.858
15	12/30/2018	23	1	22	W	0.957	0.863
16	1/6/2019	18	3	15	L	0.833	0.862
17	1/11/2019	12	2	10		0.833	0.861
18	1/12/2019	18		18	W	1.000	0.866
19	1/16/2019	16		16	W	1.000	0.871
20	1/19/2019	25	3	22	W	0.880	0.871
21	1/21/2019	21	1	20	W	0.952	0.874
22	1/23/2019	26	1	25	OTL	0.962	0.878
23	2/2/2019	22	1	21	W	0.955	0.881
24	2/6/2019	37	2	35	W	0.946	0.885
25	2/10/2019	30	1	29	W	0.967	0.889
26	2/16/2019	30	2	28	W	0.933	0.891
27	2/23/2019	23	2	21	W	0.913	0.892
28	2/27/2019	29	1	28	W	0.966	0.895
29	3/2/2019	17	3	14	L	0.824	0.893
30	3/9/2019	34	3	30	OTL	0.882	0.892
31	3/13/2019	29	3	26	W	0.897	0.893
32	3/16/2019	19	1	18	W	0.947	0.894
33	3/23/2019	37	4	33	L	0.892	0.894
34	3/30/2019	29	1	28	W	0.966	0.896
35	4/4/2019	17		17	W	1.000	0.898
36	4/6/2019	31	5	26	L	0.839	0.896
37	4/14/2019	24	1	23	W	0.958	0.898
	Totals	967	98	868		0.898

Conclusion

In his initial full KHL season of 2015-16, Samsonov did not get off to a slow start. But during his 2016-17 and 2017-18 seasons in the KHL, he performed better in the latter half of the season than he did during the first half. That was certainly the pattern with the Hershey Bears as he improved over the course of each quarter and improved dramatically from the first half to the second half of the season.

Further Reading
Ilya Samsonov: First 24 Games In North America: Adaptation, Education and Sticking To The Script
Back In Business: Ilya Samsonov Records First Victory Since January 14 in 3-2 Win Over the New Jersey Devils
Hershey Bears Regular Season Review: A Tale of Two Seasons
Capitals Goaltending Prospect Ilya Samsonov Shining in the KHL
Caps Grab Goalie in First Round 2015 Draft
Capitals Sign Goaltender Ilya Samsonov to Three Year Entry Level Contract
Elite Prospects Profile of Ilya Samsonov
KHL Player Page: Ilya Samsonov