Western Conference Round-Robin Preview

Photo: David Becker/Getty Images

During the past week, we have been doing deep dives on the Washington Capitals and their Eastern Conference opponents in the round-robin games leading up to the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs. On the other side of the bracket, the St. Louis Blues, Colorado Avalanche, Vegas Golden Knights, and Dallas Stars will participate in a three-game round-robin to decide Stanley Cup Playoff seeding for the Western Conference while 16 teams fight for their lives in the play-in round. NoVa Caps takes a look at the top Western Conference teams that will make for a highly entertaining, competitive round-robin.

St. Louis Blues

2019-20 regular season result: 94 points, first in Western Conference, second in NHL

Regular-season series vs. Round-Robin opponents:

2-2-0 vs. Avalanche (-1 goal differential)
1-0-2 vs. Golden Knights (even goal differential)
4-0-1 vs. Stars (+6 goal differential)

Team leaders:

F David Perron (25 goals)
C Brayden Schenn (25 goals)
C Ryan O’Reilly (49 assists, 61 points)
G Jordan Binnington (30 wins)

Team Stats:

3.14 goals-per-game (T-14th)
2.68 goals-against per game (5th)
24.3% power-play efficiency (3rd)
79.3% penalty-killing rate (18th)
30.7 shots-per-game (T-21st)
29.6 shots-against per game (4th)

Analytics

Money Puck:

2.24 expected goals per 60 at five-on-five
2.21 against
50.71 shot attempts for per 60
49.15 allowed
2.6 goals for per 60

Natural Stattrick:

50.79% Corsi-for percentage – 13th
50.76% Fenwick-for percentage (shots on goal and missed shots for vs. against) – 14th
49.92% expected goals-for percentage – 17th
51.15% scoring chances-for percentage – 12th
.9268 save percentage – 6th

Charting Hockey:

1.013 PDO (the sum of a team’s shooting percentage – 9.1% – and its save percentage – .922 – at even strength)
.547 average goal-differential per game

Colorado Avalanche

2019-20 regular season result: 92 points, second in Western Conference, tied for third in NHL

Regular-season series vs. Round-Robin opponents:

2-2-0 vs. Blues (+1 goal differential)
2-0-0 vs. Golden Knights (+9 goal differential)
0-2-2 vs. Stars (-5 goal differential)

Team leaders:

C Nathan MacKinnon (35 goals, 58 assists, 93 points)
D Cale Makar (50 points)
F Mikko Rantanen (0.98 points-per-game)
G Pavel Francouz (21 wins)

Team Stats:

3.37 goals-per-game (4th)
2.71 goals-against per game (6th)
19.1% power-play efficiency (19th)
81.4% penalty-killing rate (T-13th)
32.2 shots-per-game (8th)
31.3 shots-against per game (T-16th)

Analytics

Money Puck:

2.33 expected goals per 60 at five-on-five
2.26 against
58.75 shot attempts for per 60
54.98 allowed
2.93 goals for per 60

Natural Stattrick:

50.79% Corsi-for percentage – 13th
50.76% Fenwick-for percentage – 14th
49.92% expected goals-for percentage – 17th
51.15% scoring-chances for percentage – 12th
.9268 save percentage – 6th

Charting Hockey:

1.021 PDO (9.3% shooting percentage and .928 save percentage)
.786 average goal-differential per game

Vegas Golden Knights

2019-20 regular season result: 92 points, third in Western Conference, tied for eighth in NHL

Regular-season series vs. Round-Robin opponents:

2-1-0 vs. Blues (even goal differential)
0-2-0 vs. Avalanche (-9 goal differential)
1-1-0 vs. Stars (-1 goal differential)

Team leaders:

F Max Pacioretty (32 goals, 66 points)
F Mark Stone (42 assists, 0.97 points-per-game)
G Marc-Andre Fleury (27 wins)

Team Stats:

3.15 goals-per-game (13th)
2.94 goals-against per game (13th)
22% power-play efficiency (9th)
76.6% penalty-killing rate (27th)
34.5 shots-per-game (1st)
29.3 shots-against per game (3rd)

Analytics

Money Puck:

2.84 expected goals per 60 at five-on-five
2.26 against
60.77 shot attempts for per 60
50.25 allowed
2.6 goals for per 60

Natural Stattrick:

54.76% Corsi-for percentage – 1st
54.98% Fenwick-for percentage – 1st
56.07% expected goals-for percentage – 1st
56.49% scoring-chances for percentage – 1st
.9118 save percentage – 27th

Charting Hockey:

.987 PDO (7.9% shooting percentage and .908 save percentage)
.095 average goal-differential per game

Dallas Stars

2019-20 regular season result: 82 points, fifth in Western Conference (fourth with a .594 points percentage), 10th in NHL

Regular-season series vs. Round-Robin opponents:

1-3-1 vs. Blues (-6 goal differential)
4-0-0 vs. Avalanche (+5 goal differential)
1-1-0 vs. Golden Knights (+1 goal differential)

Team leaders:

F Denis Gurianov (20 goals)
C Tyler Seguin (33 assists, 50 points)
G Ben Bishop (21 wins)

Team Stats:

2.58 goals-per-game (26th)
2.52 goals-against per game (2nd)
21.1% power-play efficiency (13th)
79.7% penalty-killing rate (17th)
30.6 shots-per-game (T-23rd)
31.6 shots-against per game (18th)

Analytics

Money Puck

2.37 expected goals per 60 at five-on-five
2.11 against; 53.37 shot attempts for per 60
54.66 allowed
1.95 goals for per 60

Natural Stattrick:

46.08% Corsi-for percentage – 18th
49.4% Fenwick-for percentage – 19th
52.58% expected goals-for percentage – 5th
51.88% scoring-chances for percentage – 8th
.933 save percentage – 2nd

Charting Hockey:

1.006 PDO (7.3% shooting percentage and .933 save percentage)
.026 average goal-differential per game

By Harrison Brown