Going Gray While Lighting the Lamp: A Look at Goal Production at an Advanced Age and Alex Ovechkin’s Chances of Catching Gretzky

USA TODAY

At the age of 34, Washington Capitals Captain Alex Ovechkin already has over 40 goals for the 2019-20 season (currently on hiatus) and has already scored the 700^th career goal of his NHL career. The question has been discussed whether Ovechkin can pass the NHL’s all-time great, Wayne Gretzky, in career goals. Gretzky’s record of 894 is comparable to Babe Ruth’s career home record in baseball before it was surpassed by Hank Aaron.Ovechkin has exceeded 60 goals just once in his career, during his third season (2007-08), though has generally, reached 40-55 goals over a long period of time. This season, he reached the 700-goal plateau prior to his 35^th birthday, something only Gretzky had accomplished. At the time the 2019-20 season paused due to the coronavirus pandemic, Ovechkin had already scored 48 goals, the highest goal total for a 34-year old. Last season, he recorded the second-best, all-time total for a 33-year old with 51 goals, second only to Jaromir Jagr, and the third-best total for a 32-year old, behind only Phil Esposito and Bobby Hull.

The question is … how long can Ovechkin maintain his seasons of reaching and/or exceeding 40-50 goals? If the 2019-20 regular season is ever resumed, there is a good chance that the Caps’ captain could top 50 goals, which would tie Mike Gartner for seventh place on the All-Time Goals Scored list with 708.

Goal Scoring at Age 35

In sports, but in this regard, hockey, as a player passes from their mid-to-late 30’s, goal production begins to go down. Among 35-year olds in NHL history, the highest goal total by a player was 51, accomplished by Johnny Bucyk In 1970-71. There have been two other players who scored 40 goals, Teemu Selanne (2005-06) and Daniel Alfredsson (2007-08). There is a total of 19 players who scored at least 30 goals at age 35.

Rk		Name	Birth Year	Pos	Season	GP	G	A	P
1	CA	Johnny Bucyk	1935	F	1970‑71	78	51	65	116
2	FI	Teemu Selänne	1970	F	2005‑06	80	40	50	90
2	SE	Daniel Alfredsson	1972	F	2007‑08	70	40	49	89
4	CA	Phil Esposito	1942	F	1977‑78	79	38	43	81
5	CA	Jean Ratelle	1940	F	1975‑76	80	36	69	105
5	CA	Mark Messier	1961	F	1996‑97	71	36	48	84
5	CA	Jim Pappin	1939	F	1974‑75	71	36	27	63
8	CA	Mario Lemieux	1965	F	2000‑01	43	35	41	76
8	CZ	Václav Nedomanský	1944	F	1979‑80	79	35	39	74
10	CA	Norm Ullman	1935	F	1970‑71	73	34	51	85
11	US	Joe Mullen	1957	F	1992‑93	72	33	37	70
11	CA	Maurice Richard	1921	F	1956‑57	63	33	29	62
13	CA	Martin St. Louis	1975	F	2010‑11	82	31	68	99
14	CA	Frank Mahovlich	1938	F	1973‑74	71	31	49	80
14	CA	Rod Brind’Amour	1970	F	2005‑06	78	31	39	70
14	CA	Geoff Courtnall	1962	F	1997‑98	79	31	31	62
17	CA	Kenny Wharram	1933	F	1968‑69	76	30	39	69
17	RU	Sergei Makarov	1958	F	1993‑94	80	30	38	68
17	CA	Vic Hadfield	1940	F	1975‑76	76	30	35	65

Goal Scoring at Age 36 and 37

Among 36-year old players, three scored 40 or more goals: Teemu Selanne (48), Phil Esposito (42), and Brendan Shanahan (40). 17 players in all scored at least 30 goals at age 36, while a total of 34 players scored at least 25 goals.

Rk		Name	Birth Year	Pos	Season	GP	G	A	P
1	FI	Teemu Selänne	1970	F	2006‑07	82	48	46	94
2	CA	Phil Esposito	1942	F	1978‑79	80	42	36	78
3	CA	Brendan Shanahan	1969	F	2005‑06	82	40	41	81
4	US	Brett Hull	1964	F	2000‑01	79	39	40	79
5	US	Joe Mullen	1957	F	1993‑94	84	38	32	70
6	US	Bill Guerin	1970	F	2006‑07	77	36	20	56
7	CA	Mike Gartner	1959	F	1995‑96	82	35	19	54
8	CA	Dino Ciccarelli	1960	F	1996‑97	77	35	25	60
9	CA	Jean Ratelle	1940	F	1976‑77	78	33	61	94
9	CA	Bill Cook	1895	F	1931‑32	48	33	14	47
11	CA	Joe Sakic	1969	F	2005‑06	82	32	55	87
11	CA	Johnny Bucyk	1935	F	1971‑72	78	32	51	83
11	SE	Mats Sundin	1971	F	2007‑08	74	32	46	78
14	CA	Bob Nevin	1938	F	1974‑75	80	31	41	72
14	CA	Marcel Dionne	1951	F	1987‑88	67	31	34	65
14	CA	Jean Beliveau	1931	F	1967‑68	59	31	37	68
17	CA	Jarome Iginla	1977	F	2013‑14	78	30	31	61

For 37-year old players, just one player has ever scored 40 goals, that being Bucyk with 40. Five other players scored at least 30: Joe Sakic, Phil Esposito, Jean Beliveau, Mike Gartner, and Brett Hull. 18 players in all scored at least 25.

Rk		Name	Birth Year	Pos	Season	GP	G	A	P
1	CA	Johnny Bucyk	1935	F	1972‑73	78	40	53	93
2	CA	Joe Sakic	1969	F	2006‑07	82	36	64	100
3	CA	Phil Esposito	1942	F	1979‑80	80	34	44	78
4	CA	Jean Beliveau	1931	F	1968‑69	69	33	49	82
5	CA	Mike Gartner	1959	F	1996‑97	82	32	31	63
6	US	Brett Hull	1964	F	2001‑02	82	30	33	63
7	CA	Jarome Iginla	1977	F	2014‑15	82	29	30	59
7	CA	Gordie Howe	1928	F	1965‑66	70	29	46	75
7	US	Mike Knuble	1972	F	2009‑10	69	29	24	53
7	CA	Brendan Shanahan	1969	F	2006‑07	67	29	33	62
11	CA	Mark Recchi	1968	F	2005‑06	83	28	36	64
11	CA	Gary Roberts	1966	F	2003‑04	72	28	20	48
11	CA	Mario Lemieux	1965	F	2002‑03	67	28	63	91
11	CA	Bill Cook	1895	F	1932‑33	48	28	22	50
15	CA	Patrick Marleau	1979	F	2016‑17	82	27	19	46
16	CA	Dean Prentice	1932	F	1969‑70	75	26	25	51
16	SK	Marian Hossa	1979	F	2016‑17	73	26	19	45
18	CA	Jean Ratelle	1940	F	1977‑78	80	25	59	84

Goal Scoring at Age 38 and Beyond

The drop off in goal production is generally greater at age 38. No player has topped 40 goals and just three have topped 30 goals: Hull, Bucyk, and Martin St. Louis. 15 other players topped 20 goals.

Rk		Name	Birth Year	Pos	Season	GP	G	A	P
1	US	Brett Hull	1964	F	2002‑03	82	37	39	76
2	CA	Johnny Bucyk	1935	F	1973‑74	76	31	44	75
3	CA	Martin St. Louis	1975	F	2013‑14	81	30	39	69
4	CA	Patrick Marleau	1979	F	2017‑18	82	27	20	47
5	CA	Ron Francis	1963	F	2001‑02	80	27	50	77
5	CA	Jean Ratelle	1940	F	1978‑79	80	27	45	72
5	FI	Teemu Selänne	1970	F	2008‑09	65	27	27	54
8	CA	Gordie Howe	1928	F	1966‑67	69	25	40	65
9	CA	Mark Recchi	1968	F	2006‑07	82	24	44	68
9	US	Mike Knuble	1972	F	2010‑11	79	24	16	40
11	CA	Brendan Shanahan	1969	F	2007‑08	73	23	23	46
12	CA	Jarome Iginla	1977	F	2015‑16	82	22	25	47
13	CA	Norm Ullman	1935	F	1973‑74	78	22	47	69
14	CA	Dave Andreychuk	1963	F	2001‑02	82	21	17	38
14	US	Bill Guerin	1970	F	2008‑09	78	21	27	48
14	CA	Alex Delvecchio	1932	F	1970‑71	77	21	34	55
14	CA	Dean Prentice	1932	F	1970‑71	69	21	17	38
18	CA	Don Marshall	1932	F	1970‑71	62	20	29	49

At age 39, Gordie Howe was the only player to top 30 goals, with 39. There were 17 others who scored 20 or more.

Rk		Name	Birth Year	Pos	Season	GP	G	A	P
1	CA	Gordie Howe	1928	F	1967‑68	74	39	43	82
2	CA	Johnny Bucyk	1935	F	1974‑75	78	29	52	81
3	CA	Shane Doan	1976	F	2015‑16	72	28	19	47
3	CA	Jean Ratelle	1940	F	1979‑80	67	28	45	73
5	SE	Daniel Alfredsson	1972	F	2011‑12	75	27	32	59
5	FI	Teemu Selänne	1970	F	2009‑10	54	27	21	48
7	CA	Joe Nieuwendyk	1966	F	2005‑06	65	26	30	56
8	US	Brett Hull	1964	F	2003‑04	81	25	43	68
8	CA	Jean Beliveau	1931	F	1970‑71	70	25	51	76
10	CA	Mark Messier	1961	F	2000‑01	82	24	43	67
10	CA	Ray Whitney	1972	F	2011‑12	82	24	53	77
12	CA	Ron Francis	1963	F	2002‑03	82	22	35	57
13	US	Bill Guerin	1970	F	2009‑10	78	21	24	45
14	CA	Martin St. Louis	1975	F	2014‑15	74	21	31	52
14	CA	Bill Cook	1895	F	1934‑35	48	21	15	36
16	CA	Alex Delvecchio	1932	F	1971‑72	75	20	45	65
16	CA	Dave Andreychuk	1963	F	2002‑03	72	20	14	34
16	CA	Dean Prentice	1932	F	1971‑72	71	20	27	47

When reaching age 40, Howe scored 40 goals, Bucyk had 36, and Selanne had 31. Only four other players scored at least 20 goals.

Rk		Name	Born	Pos	Season	GP	G	A	P
1	CA	Gordie Howe	1928	F	1968‑69	76	44	59	103
2	CA	Johnny Bucyk	1935	F	1975‑76	77	36	47	83
3	FI	Teemu Selänne	1970	F	2010‑11	73	31	49	80
4	CA	Dean Prentice	1932	F	1972‑73	73	26	16	42
5	CA	Mark Recchi	1968	F	2008‑09	80	23	38	61
6	CA	Dave Andreychuk	1963	F	2003‑04	82	21	18	39
7	CA	Gary Roberts	1966	F	2006‑07	69	20	22	42

The drop off is even greater after age 40. At age 41, Howe had 31 goals, while only three other players topped 20 goals: Selanne (26), Jagr (24), and Bucyk (20).

Rk		Name	Birth Year	Pos	Season	GP	G	A	P
1	CA	Gordie Howe	1928	F	1969‑70	76	31	40	71
2	FI	Teemu Selänne	1970	F	2011‑12	82	26	40	66
3	CZ	Jaromír Jágr	1972	F	2013‑14	82	24	43	67
4	CA	Johnny Bucyk	1935	F	1976‑77	49	20	23	43

Howe scored 23 goals as a 42-year old, the only player at that age to top 20. At age 43, Jagr had 27 goals, but no other player of that age has had more than 10. Jagr holds the record for goals at age 44 with 16.

Potential Productivity for Age 35-36

The two most critical seasons for Ovechkin’s hopes of topping 894 goals will be the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons (his age 35 and 36 seasons), because player productivity, as a whole, diminishes greatly after that age. The greatest producers of goals during the age 35-36 range were Teemu Selanne, Johnny Bucyk, and Phil Esposito. Selanne’s goal totals for his age 35 and age 36 seasons were 40 and 48, a total of 88 goals; Bucyk’s goal totals were 51 and 32, a total of 83 goals; Esposito’s goal totals for his age 35 and age 36 seasons were 38 and 42 for a total of 80 goals. Even assuming that the 2019-20 does not resume and that Ovechkin ends up with 706 goals for the 2019-20 season, if he can match the productivity of Selanne, Bucyk, and Esposito for the next two years and scores at least 80 goals, he would be close to 790 goals after the 2021-22 season. It is probably not an unreasonable assumption that Ovechkin could match the productivity of Selanne, Bucyk, and Esposito over the two-year period of being age 35-36. At age 34, Bucyk had 31 goals, then jumped to 51 goals at age 35, and had 32 goals at age 36. Bucyk is unusual in that he was better at scoring goals after his 30^th birthday than before and had never topped 30 goals until he was 32. Selanne did not even play his age 34 season due to the NHL lockout. Esposito had 34 goals on the year when he was 34 and improved by four goals at age 35.

Player	Career Total	Before 35	35	36	35-36	Total 35+
Teemu Selanne	694	606	40	48	88	88
Johnny Bucyk	556	473	51	32	83	83
Phil Esposito	717	637	38	42	80	80
Joe Mullen	502	431	33	38	71	71
Brendan Shanahan	656	587	40	29	69	69
Jean Ratelle	491	427	31	33	64	64
Daniel Alfredsson	444	380	40	24	64	64
Brett Hull	741	678	24	39	63	63
Bill Cook	228	165	30	33	63	63
Marcel Dionne	731	672	28	31	59	59
Mats Sundin	564	505	27	32	59	59
Mark Messier	694	636	36	22	58	58
Dino Ciccarelli	608	551	22	35	57	57
Norm Ullman	490	433	34	23	57	57
Rod Brind’mour	452	395	31	26	57	57
Martin St Louis	391	335	31	25	56	56
Mike Knuble	278	222	29	27	56	56
Gordie Howe	801	746	26	29	55	55
Steve Thomas	421	367	28	26	54	54
Keith Tkachuk	538	486	27	25	52	52

Potential Productivity for Age 37-39

It would probably not be as reasonable to expect Ovechkin to be a 50-goal scorer at age 37 and older, given the fact that only two players in NHL history have even scored 40 or more goals after their 37^th birthday; (Bucyk, who scored 40 at age 37, and Howe, who scored 44 at age 40). The highest goal producers during the age range 37-39 were Bucyk with 100, Brett Hull with 92, Howe with 83, Jean Ratelle with 80, Jean Beliveau with 77, and Ron Francis (75). Several others were in the 60-70 goal range including Selanne (66), Mark Recchi (66), Jarome Iglinla (65), Gary Roberts (62), Daniel Alfredsson (61), and Dave Andreychuk (61). Assuming Ovechkin has 790 goals going into the 2022-23 season (his age 37 season), if he can match the productivity of Bucyk throughout the 2022-23 through 2024-25 seasons, he would have 890 and be close to Gretzky even before turning 40. If he matches the productivity of Howe from ages 35-37 and scores 80 goals during that timeframe, he would have 880 career goals and could be close to Gretzky’s total. If he gets at least 70, he’d be at 870. If he gets at least 60 goals during that three-year timeframe, he’d be at 860 career goals.

Player	Career Total	Before 35	37	38	39	37-39	Total 35+	Total 37+
Johnny Bucyk	556	456	40	31	29	100	100	100
Brett Hull	741	649	30	37	25	92	92	92
Gordie Howe	801	718	29	25	29	83	83	83
Jean Ratelle	491	411	25	27	28	80	80	80
Jean Beliveau	507	430	33	19	25	77	77	77
Ron Francis	549	474	15	27	33	75	75	75
Patrick Marleau	559	489	27	27	16	70	70	70
Martin St Louis	391	323	17	30	21	68	68	68
Dean Prentice	391	324	26	21	20	67	67	67
Teemu Selanne	694	628	12	27	27	66	66	66
Mark Recchi	577	511	28	24	14	66	66	66
Jarome Iginla	625	560	29	22	14	65	65	65
Bill Guerin	429	364	23	21	21	65	65	65
Shane Doane	402	337	23	14	28	65	65	65
Gary Roberts	438	376	28	14	20	62	62	62
Ray Whitney	385	323	21	17	24	62	62	62
Bill Cook	228	166	28	13	21	62	62	62
Dave Andreychuk	640	579	20	21	20	61	61	61
Daniel Alfredsson	444	383	20	14	27	61	61	61

Potential Productivity for Age 40 and Beyond

In the history of the NHL, only seven players even topped 20 goals when they were 40-years old. Among those, just three topped 30 goals: Howe with 44, Bucyk with 36 and Selanne with 31. For career totals, only two players have scored more than 100 goals after turning 40 (Howe with 113 and Jagr with 101). Both continued playing until age 44 or older. Selanne had 78 goals after turning 40 and he played until he was 43. Bucyk had 61 goals at age 40 or older and played until the age of 42.

If Ovechkin starts the season with 870 goals, to be relatively conservative, and keeps pace with Howe, Bucyk, and Selanne, and scores 30 goals in his age 40 season, he would reach 900 goals and top Gretzky during the 2025-26 season. If he fell short at age 40, he would probably need to continue past his 41^st birthday to top Gretzky.

Player	Career Total	Before 35	40	41	42	43	44+	40+	Total 35+
Gordie Howe	801	688	44	31	23		15	113	251
Jaromir Jagr	766	665	16	24	17	27	17	101	145
Teemu Selanne	694	616	31	26	12	9		78	232
Johnny Bucyk	556	495	36	20	5			61	244
Mark Recchi	577	522	23	18	14			55	147
Norm Ullman	490	443	31	16				47	155
Mark Messier	694	651	7	18	18			43	155
Daniel Alfredsson	444	416	10	18				28	153
Dave Andreychuk	640	613	21		6			27	123
Gary Roberts	438	411	13	7	3	4		27	115
Nicklas Lidstrom	264	237	16	11				27	91

Most Productive Careers at Advanced Age

Assuming Ovechkin ends the 2019-20 season with 706 goals, he would need 189 more goals in his career to exceed Gretzky’s total of 894. In the history of the NHL, three players have exceeded 189 goals for the portion of their career that cane after their 35^th birthday: Howe (251), Bucyk (244), and Selanne (232). Howe generally scored between 25-30 goals after turning 35, with one season of 44 goals, at age 40. He also had seasons of topping 30 goals at age 41 and 42. Bucyk played in the NHL until he was 42 and topped 30 goals every year from age 35 through 40, with one exception in which he had 29 goals. He scored 219 goals between the ages of 35-40 and retired at age 42. Selanne played in the NHL until he was 43. He had two high production years at age 35 and 36 in which he topped 40 goals. Except for his age 37 season, in 2007-08 when he had just 12 goals, he typically scored between 26-31 goals per year from the time he was 38 until the time he was 41.

Player	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42	43	44+	40+	35-40	Tot 35+
Gordie Howe	26	29	29	25	29	44	31	23		15	113	182	251
Johnny Bucyk	51	32	40	31	29	36	20	5			61	219	244
Teemu Selanne	40	48	12	27	27	31	26	12	9		78	185	232
Brett Hull	24	39	30	37	25						0	155	155
Mark Messier	36	22	13	17	24	7	18	18			43	119	155
Jean Ratelle	31	33	25	27	28	11					11	155	155
Norm Ullman	34	23	20	22	9	31	16				47	139	155
Daniel Alfredsson	40	24	20	14	27	10	18				28	135	153
Mark Recchi	26		28	24	14	23	18	14			55	115	147
Jaromir Jagr	25				19	16	24	17	27	17	101	60	145

Other players who were productive after turning 35 were Hull, Jagr, and Mark Messier. Hull had 155 goals after turning 35, but retired after his age 39 season. Jagr had 145 goals butleft the NHL after age 35 and did not return until he was 39. He ended up retiring at age 45. Had he not taken a three-year break from the NHL, he could have topped 200 goals between age 35 and age 40. Messier had 155 goals and played until he was 42. He had 36 goals at age 35 but never again topped 20 goals. Mark Recchi had 147 goals and played until he was 42 and lost his age 36 season to the NHL lockout. He scored at least 20 goals per season up to and including his age 38 season. Dave Andreychuk scored 123 goals from age 35 on, playing until he was 42. He typically scored 20 goals per year up to and including his age 40 season. He missed his age 41 season due to the lockout. Phil Esposito scored 121 goals from age 35 until the end of his career. After topping 30 goals in both his age 35, 36, and age 37 seasons, he dropped to just eight goals at age 38 and then retired.

Conclusion

Ovechkin can break Gretzky’s goal scoring record, provided he can stay healthy, match the late career productivity of players such as Howe, Bucyk, and Selanne, and play until he’s 40-years old. Caps fans know from experience to never bet against The Great 8.

Further Reading
Former Capitals’ Head Coach Barry Trotz: “If I Was A Betting Man, I Would Bet On [Alex Ovechkin] Breaking That Goal-scoring Record. In My Mind, There’s No Doubt He’s Going To Do It.”
“See You At 800”: Wayne Gretzky Congratulates Alex Ovechkin on Reaching 700 Goals
Tracking Gr8ness: The Path To 895 Goals For Alex Ovechkin

Statistics obtained from NHL.com, Hockey Reference, and Quanthockey websites