Photo: Jamestown Sun
After naming Ron Francis their first General Manager in franchise history on July 18, the Seattle NHL franchise now has their architect for the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Francis has to select one player from each of the other NHL teams except the Vegas Golden Knights, who are exempt from the expansion draft. At least 14 of those players he selects must be forwards, another nine have to be defensemen, and three of those picks must be goalies. 20 of the players Francis picks also have to have contracts for the 2021-22 season. NoVa Caps does a way-too-early mock draft and sees what the Seattle franchise could look like two years out. This will be the first of three mock expansion drafts between now and June 2021.
Each team has the option of protecting seven forwards, three defensemen, and one goaltender or eight skaters (forwards plus defensemen) and one goalie. Seattle gets the same rules as the Golden Knights did in the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft.
NOTE: Players must be protected (unless they waive) if they have an NMC – No Movement Clause (player has to be protected unless he waives), M-NTC NMC – Modified No-Trade Clause No Movement Clause
Protected: C Troy Terry, C Rickard Rakell, C Sam Steel, F Max Jones, F Jakob Silfverberg, C Ryan Kesler (NMC), F Ondrej Kase, D Cam Fowler, D Josh Manson, D Hampus Lindholm, G John Gibson
Seattle selects: F Daniel Sprong
Protected: F Phil Kessel (M-NTC NMC), C Christian Dvorak, C Nick Schmaltz, F Lawson Crouse, F Conor Garland, F Vinnie Hinostroza, F Clayton Keller, D Jakob Chychrun, D Ilya Lyubushkin, D Oliver Ekman-Larsson (NMC), G Adin Hill
Seattle selects: G Darcy Kuemper
Protected: F Brad Marchand (NMC), C Patrice Bergeron (NMC), F David Pastrnak, F Danton Heinen, F Anders Bjork, F Jake DeBrusk, F David Backes, D Torey Krug, D Charlie McAvoy, D Brandon Carlo, G Daniel Vladar
Seattle selects: D Matt Gryzleck
Protected: C Casey Mittelstadt, C Jack Eichel, F Sam Reinhart, F Jeff Skinner (NMC), D Rasmus Ristolainen, D Rasmus Dahlin, D Brendan Montour, D Henri Jokiharju, G Linus Ullmark
Seattle selects: D Colin Miller
Protected: F Johnny Gaudreau, C Sean Monahan, F Matthew Tkachuk, F Sam Bennett, F Elias Lindholm, F Milan Lucic (NMC), D Noah Hanifin, F Juuso Valimaki, D Oliver Kylington, G Tyler Parsons
Seattle selects: C Mark Jankowski
Protected: C Sebastian Aho, F Andrei Svechnikov, F Nino Niederreiter, F Teuvo Teravainen, C Jordan Staal (NMC), F Warren Foegele, F Julien Gauthier, D Brett Pesce, D Jaccob Slavin, D Haydn Fleury, G Alex Nedeljkovic
Seattle selects: D Jake Bean
Protected: C Jonathan Toews (NMC), F Patrick Kane (NMC), F Alex DeBrincat, F Drake Caguilla, C Dylan Strome, F Brendan Perlini, F Victor Edjsell, D Duncan Keith (NMC), D Brent Seabrook (NMC), D Erik Gustaffson, G Corey Crawford
Seattle selects: D Connor Murphy
Protected: C Nathan MacKinnon, F Mikko Rantanen, F Gabriel Landeskog, C Tyson Jost, F J.T. Compher, F Joonas Donskoi, C Nazem Kadri, D Cale Makar, D Samuel Girard, D Erik Johnson (M-NTC NMC), G Philipp Grubauer
Seattle selects: C Sheldon Dries
Columbus Blue Jackets
Protected: F Brandon Dubinsky (M-NTC NMC), C Pierre-Luc Dubois, F Nick Foligno (M-NTC NMC), F Gustav Nyquist, F Josh Anderson, F Oliver Bjorkstrand, F Cam Atkinson, D Zach Werenski, D Markus Nutivaara, D Seth Jones, G Joonas Korpisalo
Seattle selects: C Alexander Wennberg
Protected: C Tyler Seguin (NMC), F Jamie Benn (NMC), F Joe Pavelski (NMC), F Alexander Radulov (NMC), D Miro Heiskanen, D John Klingberg, D Esa Lindell, D Julius Honka, G Ben Bishop (NMC)
Seattle selects: F Roope Hintz
Detroit Red Wings
Protected: C Dylan Larkin, F Justin Abdelkader, F Anthony Mantha, F Andreas Athanasiou, F Tyler Bertuzzi, F Michael Rasmussen, F Christoffer Ehn, D Dennis Cholowski, D Filip Hronek, D Joe Hicketts, G Kaden Fulcher
Seattle selects: D Danny DeKeyser
Protected: C Connor McDavid, C Leon Draisaitl, C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, F Kailer Yamamoto, D Oscar Klefbom, D Darnell Nurse, D Caleb Jones, D Ethan Bear, G Mikko Koskinen
Seattle selects: F James Neal
Protected: F Jonathan Huberdeau (NMC), C Aleksander Barkov, C Vincent Trocheck, F Brett Connolly, F Frank Vatrano, C Henrik Borgstrom, F Maxim Mamin, D Aaron Ekblad, D Keith Yandle (NMC), D Mike Matheson, G Sergei Bobrovsky (NMC)
Seattle selects: D Anton Stralman
Los Angeles Kings
Protected: C Anze Kopitar (NMC), F Carl Grundstrom, F Martin Frk, F Michael Amadio, F Adrian Kempe, F Dustin Brown, C Jeff Carter, D Drew Doughty (NMC), D Sean Walker, D Kurtis McDermid, G Jonathan Quick
Seattle selects: G Cal Petersen
Protected: F Jason Zucker (NMC), F Mats Zuccarello (NMC), C Joel Eriksson Ek, F Zach Parise, F Jordan Greenway, F Ryan Donato, F Luke Kunin, D Ryan Suter (NMC), D Matt Dumba, D Jared Spurgeon, G Devan Dubnyk
Seattle selects: F Kevin Fiala
Protected: F Jonathan Drouin, F Paul Byron, F Max Domi, F Arturri Lehkonen, C Nick Cousins, C Jesperi Kotkaniemi, F Charles Hudon, D Shea Weber, D Jeff Petry (M-NTC NMC), D Victor Mete, G Carey Price (NMC)
Seattle selects: D Ben Chiarot
Protected: F Filip Forsberg, F Victor Arvidsson, C Ryan Johansen, C Matt Duchene, D Roman Josi, D Ryan Ellis, D Mattias Ekholm, D Dante Fabrro, G Juuse Saros
Seattle selects: C Mikael Granlund
New Jersey Devils
Protected: F Miles Wood, F Jesper Bratt, C Nico Hischier, C Michael Mcleod, F Damon Severson, D Sami Vatanen, D P.K. Subban, D Will Butcher, G MacKenzie Blackwood
Seattle selects: D Mirco Mueller
New York Islanders
Protected: C Mathew Barzal, F Anders Lee, F Brock Nelson, F Jordan Eberle, F Josh Bailey, F Michael Dal Colle, F Anthony Beauvillier, D Ryan Pulock, D Adam Pelech, D Devon Toews, G Semyon Varlamov
Seattle selects: F Josh Ho-Sang
New York Rangers
Protected: F Artemi Panarin (NMC), C Mika Zibanejad (NMC), F Pavel Buchnevich, C Filip Chytil, C Lias Andersson, F Brett Howden, F Brendan Lemieux, D Jacob Trouba, D Brady Skjei, D Libor Hajek, G Alexandar Georgiev
Seattle selects: D Anthony DeAngelo
Protected: C Chris Tierney, F Brady Tkachuk, C Logan Brown, C Colin White, F Connor Brown, F Rudolfs Balcers, F Vitaly Abramov, D Thomas Chabot, D Max Lajoie, D Nikita Zaitsev, G Filip Gustavsson
Seattle selects: G Marcus Hogberg
Protected: F Claude Giroux (NMC), C Sean Couturier, F Jakub Voracek, C Kevin Hayes (NMC), D Travis Sanheim, D Robert Hagg, D Samuel Morin, D Ivan Provorov, G Carter Hart
Seattle selects: D Shayne Gostisbehere
Protected: C Sidney Crosby (NMC), C Evgeni Malkin (NMC), F Jake Guentzel, F Patric Hornqvist, F Brandon Tanev, C Jared McCann, F Dominik Kahun, D Kris Letang (M-NTC NMC), D Brian Dumoulin, D Justin Schultz, G Matt Murray
Seattle selects: F Bryan Rust
San Jose Sharks
Protected: C Logan Couture, F Evander Kane, F Timo Meier, F Kevin Labanc, F Tomas Hertl, F Alex True, F Antti Soumela, D Erik Karlsson (NMC), D Brent Burns, D Marc-Edouard Vlasic (NMC), G Martin Jones
Seattle selects: Marcus Sorenson
St. Louis Blues
Protected: F Vladimir Tarasenko, C Ryan O’Reilly, F Jaden Schwartz, F Robby Fabbri, F Robert Thomas, F Sammy Blais, F Jordan Kyrou, D Colton Parayko, D Vince Dunn, D Joel Edmundson, G Jordan Binnington
Seattle selects: F David Perron
Tampa Bay Lightning
Protected: F Nikita Kucherov, C Steven Stamkos (NMC), C Brayden Point, F Ondrej Palat, F Yanni Gourde, C Anthony Cirelli, F Mathieu Joseph, D Victor Hedman (NMC), D Ryan McDonagh, D Mikhail Sergachev, G Andrei Vasilevskiy
Seattle selects: F Tyler Johnson
Toronto Maple Leafs
Protected: C Auston Matthews, C John Tavares (NMC), F Mitch Marner, F William Nylander, F Alexander Kerfoot, F Kasperi Kapanen, F Andreas Johnsson, D Morgan Reilly, D Tyson Barrie, D Travis Dermott, G Fredrik Andersen
Seattle selects: D Jordan Schmaltz
Protected: C Elias Pettersson, F Brock Boeser, C Bo Horvat, F Michael Ferland (NMC), C Jake Virtanen, F Adam Gaudette, F J.T. Miller, D Olli Juolevi, D Troy Stetcher, D Tyler Myers (NMC), G Thatcher Demko
Seattle selects: F Nikolay Goldobin
Protected: F Alex Ovechkin, C Nicklas Backstrom, C Evgeny Kuznetsov, F Tom Wilson, F Jakub Vrana, F Axel Jonnson-Fjallby, C Lars Eller, D John Carlson, D Michal Kempny, D Jonas Seigenthaler, G Ilya Samsonov
Seattle selects: D Dmitry Orlov
Protected: C Mark Schiefele, F Blake Wheeler (NMC), F Nikolaj Ehlers, C Jack Roslovic, C Bryan Little (NMC), F Kyle Connor, F Patrik Laine, D Dustin Byfuglien, D Sami Niku, D Josh Morrissey, G Connor Hellebyuck
Seattle selects: D Neal Pionk
Here’s a look at how the projected lineup would look with this team:
Neal – Granlund – Perron
Sprong – Johnson – Fiala
Wennberg – Jankowski – Rust
Goldobin – Hintz – Sorenson
Gostisbehere – Stralman
Orlov – Miller
Murphy – Pionk
Extra: Chiarot, Dekeyser, Bean, Gryezlyk, Mueller, DeAngelo, Schmaltz
With 13 defensemen on the roster, Seattle will likely take a page out of the Golden Knights’ book and deal a lot of these defensemen to build for the future after they make their selections.
In two years, this roster will have an average age of 26.83.
This would not be an inexpensive team as it would have a cap hit of $79.6 million, which would be slightly over the salary cap for the 2019-20 season. The breakdown of the mock draft would be 14 forwards, 13 defensemen, and two goaltenders. The team currently has 13 players under contract for the 2021-22 season and needs at least eight more but that will fix on its own in the next couple of offseasons. It is deep on defense and their center depth is better than most expansion teams with Granlund and Johnson as their 1-2 punch. Their depth down the wing is fine with Neal, Perron, Rust, and Fiala could use more. Kuemper showed that he could be a capable starter, going 27-20-5 with a .925 save percentage, a 2.33 goals-against average, and five shutouts with the Coyotes last season. Next summer, we should get a clearer look at how the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft will shape out.
A final note: this is likely to change significantly as players over-perform or under-perform and change teams in the coming two seasons.
By Harrison Brown
Orly does seem like the odd man out. But I think Alexeyev or Fehervary will be protected over Siegenthaler.
Seattle would love to get Oshie. Hometown boy, a good face for the franchise.
He’s going to be 34 at the time. I think they will pass with Orlov/Jensen available probably.
Oshie grew up in Warroad, Minnesota but he was born in Washington State
Thanks Harrison Brown, excellent analysis.
Mike Vogel reminds us:
“The 16 existing clubs were each permitted to protect 15 players. Players whose first pro season was 1973-74 were deemed draft exempt, and existing clubs were permitted to pull back a player each time they lost one. Each existing club would lose three players. So in effect, the Capitals were drafting the 16th, 18th and 20th best players from the existing clubs, and most of those existing clubs were facing an expansion draft for the third time in five years.” [Several sources, including Japers Rink]
The Washington Capitals and KC Scouts in 1974 did their Draft and became utterly dreadful teams. The Caps were LOUSY and stayed that way for another six seasons. The Scouts stunk and only lasted two seasons before moving to Denver and ultimately New Jersey.
So how did the NHL go from Protect 15 in 1974 to Protect 11 in 2018 and 2021? Heavy-duty graft and corruption, that’s how. And the 1974 NHL only had 16 teams compared to 2021 with 31 teams.
Five Hundred Million Dollars up front! Seattle gets to pick an All Star Team just like Vega$ did. It’s one of many reasons I complain bitterly about the Gary Bettman regime. The tyrannical dictator has turned the NHL into an organized crime racket complete with real-time betting operations that just BEG for game fixing!
All professional sports have slowly learned the lessons of the failure of the Capitals and Tampa Bay Bucs expansion. They learned that cannot give a new expansion team nothing and expect them to succeed. After the hoopla of getting a team, fan will start to stay home if it takes 10+ years to build a contender. It’s not good business. Vegas hit the jackpot in 2018, showing there was plenty of extra talent in the league.
Dallas is actively shopping Julius Honka, I don’t see any way they protect him. I think he’s 9th on their defensive depth chart right now. Hintz will be protected. Possibly Jason Dickinson could be exposed.
Dallas would protect Hintz way over Honka, they aren’t even going to sign him this year. They are looking for a trade.
Blues will not protect Fabbri and unless he shows something in 19/20 they will not protect Jordan Kyrou. Blues will protect either Bozak and Perron or Bozak and Barbashev. On the defensive side… what are you smoking? Protect Joel Edmundson?? It is doubtful they will even resign him for 19/20.
I think you are way off on what Philly will be doing. Firstly, there are several players Philly will protect before Morin and Hagg (of which isn’t even under contract yet for the 2021 season), in which case Philly could afford to do the 7-3-1 route and protect guys like Patrick, Lindblom and Konecny. Further to that point, Hagg would most certainly not be protected unless he has an unbelievable year this year. As of now he is not even penciled in as being in the opening night starting lineup. What about Sanheim and Myers on this list? I just think there’s a lot missing here and also, unless Ghost reverts back to his ’17-’18 form and forces the Flyers to the 8 skater and 1 goalie route, they will almost certainly go with the 7-3-1 strategy, in my opinion anyway.
Some of these protection lists seem off, like Columbus for example. I’m pretty sure most of their contracts expire before the expansion draft (checking Capfriendly) yeah all of their veteran contracts expire before that exact year. They don’t have to protect Dubinsky or Foligno, in fact it looks like they only have 7 guys signed through that period 4 Fs and 3 D though they have Werenski, Dubois, and Anderson to sign long term before that.
I remembered reading elsewhere about the expansion draft that unlike Vegas, a lot of teams like the BJs are prepping for Seattle and are stacking the deck. Making a lot of their contracts end in spring 2021 and holding prospects in juniors or Europe to keep their ELC protection.
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Bruins would be stupid to protect backes. That’s a joke
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