Capitals vs. Golden Knights – Game 4: A Look At The Numbers

Photo: NHL via Getty Images

The Washington Capitals are one win away from claiming the Stanley Cup. It’s surreal. They got one step closer with a 6-2 thumping in game 4 against the Vegas Golden Knights. And I’m not going to lie, the Caps were pretty lucky, but who cares? 

[All numbers/visuals provided by Natural Stat Trick and Money Puck. Numbers are adjusted. (Click graphic to enlarge)]

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So yeah, the Caps kind of got pummeled in every numbered metric at 5v5. These numbers are still adjusted for the score, but the Capitals going up 3-0 in the 1st period still smudges the numbers a bit.

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The eye test agrees with this visual. The Golden Knights came out flying and was shot off the post from James Neal from taking an early lead.

But once the Capitals scored they woke up. And though the Capitals didn’t create much offense, they also didn’t allow too much. With these adjusted numbers, Vegas only had 1.87 expected goals at 5v5. Still, you would like to see the Capitals playing better than this.

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The first visual is at 5v5 and the 2nd visual is all situations (there isn’t a 5v5 version). Like stated above, the Capitals didn’t create too much but also didn’t give up too much. In fact, the 2nd visual shows that the Golden Knights did get some slot shots but not close to the blue. If there’s such a thing, the Capitals limited Vegas’ high danger chances to the least dangerous high dangerous chances.

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The funny thing with Alexander Ovechkin leading his team in Expected Goals, is that he had two 2-on-1s and tried to pass on both of them. He’s the best goal scorer in NHL history, he needs to shoot when he gets his chances! Check out Devante Smith-Pelly continuing his clutch goal scoring abilities.

The Capitals are one win away from the big one and the chances they win another game playing like they did are not high. Braden Holtby said it best after the game, “Good fortune was on our side a little bit. We have to be honest with ourselves.” The Caps have been unlucky just about every playoff run ever, except this year, and it’s great to win games like that, but the Capitals have the ability to really take over the game and that’s what we need for the last win of the playoffs.

By Luke Adomanis

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