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Going into the bye week, the Capitals were ranked number one in the league in both shot percentage and save percentage in all 5-on-5 situations (PDO). Since the bye week, the PDO stats have droppped considerably.
At first glance, this might be a concern to some fans, but in reality, it’s likely a simple correction to the astronomical numbers the Caps were posting heading into the break. We wrote a “word of caution” before the break here.
The Capitals shooting percentage was exospheric prior to the team’s bye week. Since returning to action on February 18th, the Caps shooting percentage is 14th in the league, at 7.5%.
As NoVa Caps noted prior to the bye week break, the Caps shooting percentages were very likely to fall in the near future, and they have. It’s a simple correction at this point, and shouldn’t be a concern. In fact, as of today, the Capitals still remain number one in shooting percentage for the entire season, at 10.0%. As we noted in our article before the bye week, a good average for a season is around 9%.
The other component of POD is save percentage, which has also fallen off since returning from the bye-week. Since the bye week, the Capitals save percentage is 10th best in the league at .936%
This may be more of a concern than shooting percentage drops, but is also likely a correction to the extremely high save percentages that Braden Holtby and Philipp Grubauer were posting prior to the bye week. As is the case with shooting percentage, the Capitals are still number one in the league in Save Percentages
A WORD OF CAUTION
Extrapolating perceived facts from data sets can be a dangerous road, but at this point, it seems pretty clear that this is a simple correction to above-average numbers. However, watch these two stats over the next three weeks. If they continue to stagnate, as they did last season, we may have a problem. Otherwise, remember the Capitals still have the best record in the NHL, and the best PDO in the NHL.
The Capitals High Shooting Percentage Won’t Last Forever.
By Jon Sorensen