Washington Capitals Statistics Analysis – Week Ending 01/16

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This is an analysis of the Washington Capitals’ performance from an advanced statistics standpoint for the week of Jan 10-16, 2916.  Statistics were taken from the War on Ice Website for each game.

Capitals vs Ottawa Senators (January 10)

The Capitals won this game, 7-1, and were ahead from start to finish.  The most dominant line in possession was the third line of Jason Chimera, Tom Wilson, and Zachary Sill (who was playing center in place of the suspended Marcus Johansson).  Chimera had both Corsi For and Fenwick For percentages over 60% while his linemates, Wilson and Sill had Corsi For and Fenwick For percentages in the 50-60% range, with Wilson’s clustering around the 55% mark and Sill’s between 50-55.  This was a day where both Wilson and Sill scored goals and Chimera had 3 assists, including one on the power play.  The two second liners, Justin Williams and Evgeny Kuznetsov, both exceeded 50% Corsi and Fenwick, with Kuznetsov exceeding 60% and Williams exceeding 55%.  While Burakovsky (who left the game early due to injury) had two assists, including one on a power play, his Corsi and Fenwick clustered around 40%.  The second line produced one goal at even strength – the one by Justin Williams to open the day’s scoring.  Alex Ovechkin, who got 2 goals, including one on a power play, had 50% Corsi For percentage and 53% Fenwick For percentage.  Nicklas Backstrom’s Corsi For and Fenwick For percentages were between 45-50%.  TJ Oshie’s Corsi For was at 45% and his Fenwick For was at 50%.

On defense, the pairing of Nate Schmidt and Dmitry Orlov was the best, with the former exceeding 60% in both Corsi For and Fenwick For and the later getting between 50-60%.   Their good work was highlighted with a goal by Orlov and assisted by Schmidt.  The rest of the defensemen were under 50% Corsi For and Fenwick For, except for Taylor Chorney who exceeded 50% in Fenwick For.

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Capitals vs Vancouver Canucks (January 14)

The Caps won this game 4-1.  They scored two goals during the second period.  The game, from the scoring standpoint, was mostly a second line show (i.e. Evgeny Kuznetsov, Justin Williams, and Andre Burakovsky), with “guest” appearances by defensemen and Tom Wilson.  There were two goals by Kuznetsov, a goal by Karl Alzner assisted by Burakovsky and Williams, and a goal by Tom Wilson, assisted by Kuznetsov and Burakovsky.  The entire second line of Kuznetsov, Williams, and Burakovsky were over 70% in Corsi For Percentage and were near or over 70% in Fenwick For percentage, with the lowest Fenwick For being Burakovsky at just a shade under 70%.  It was a dominant possession day for that trio.  Many of the other forwards exceeded 50% in either Corsi For, Fenwick For, or both, even though the scoresheet did not necessarily reflect the fact, although none were as high in Corsi For or Fenwick For as the second line members.

The defense pairing of Dmitry Orlov and Nate Schmidt also had great statistics in Corsi For and Fenwick For, with Orlov at or exceeding 70% for both and Schmidt at or exceeding 60% in both.  In that regard, Orlov contributed an assist to Kuznetsov’s initial goal.  The first pairing of Karl Alzner and Matt Niskanen both exceeded 50% in Corsi For and Fenwick For, with Niskanen exceeding 60% in Fenwick For percentage.  Alzner had contributed a goal to the offensive effort.  For the third pairing, Aaron Ness was at or just below 50% in Corsi For and Fenwick For while Chorney was just under 40% for both Corsi For and Fenwick For.

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Capitals vs Buffalo Sabres (January 16)

The Caps lost that game 4-1.  They gave up two goals, including a short-handed goal during first period and two more goals during second period.  The Corsi For and Fenwick For statistics belied the game result with most of the Caps exceeding 50% in both.  Much of it could have been “scoring effects” where it’s common for the losing team to attempt more shots as the winner plays more defensively.  It also could have been attributed to the “other” team getting more of the bounces or having better goaltending.

In fact, all of the players, except Andre Burakovsky, achieved at least 50% Corsi For percentage while they all achieved 50% or better in Fenwick For percentage, except Marcus Johansson, T.J. Oshie, and Tom Wilson.  The fourth line of Mike Richards, Michael Latta, and Zack Sill all exceeded 70% in Corsi For and Richards and Latta exceeded 70% in Fenwick For and Sill exceeded 60%.  In spite of some defensive misadventures, the defensive pairing of Nate Schmidt and Dmitry Orlov clustered around 60% in Corsi For and Fenwick For.

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By Diane Doyle

About Jon Sorensen

Jon has been a Caps fan since day one, attending his first game at the Capital Centre in 1974. His passion for the Caps has grown over the decades, which has included time as a season ticket holder, social media and community organizer, and most recently led to the founding of NoVa Caps in 2014. Jon earned a Bachelor's of Science in Engineering at Old Dominion University, and is a Systems Engineer during intermissions, which has been instrumental in supporting his Capitals habit.
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