Washington Capitals Statistics Analysis – Dec 20-27, 2015

weekly-analytics-washington-capitals

This is an analysis of the Washington Capitals’ performance from an advanced statistics standpoint for the week of Dec 20-27, 2015. Statistics were taken from the War on Ice Website for each game.


Capitals vs New York Rangers (December 20)
The Capitals won this game 7-3. They scored first but gave up 3 unanswered goals during the first period, going down 3-1. But they scored 4 unanswered goals in the second period and then two more goals in the third period to win the game.

Given that the Caps had scored two of their goals on power plays and another one, short-handed, the Corsi For and Fenwick For percentages do not reflect an overall domination by the Caps. The first line of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom and TJ Oshie were outchanced at even strength in both Corsi For and Fenwick For, with percentages ranging from 20-20% in both. In contrast, the members of the second line of Evgeny Kuznetsov, Marcus Johansson and Justin Williams were all at of over 50% in both Corsi For and Fenwick For percentages, with Kuznetsov and Johansson generally at just over 50% in both percentages and Williams exceeding 60% in Corsi For percentage and exceeding 70% in Fenwick For percentage. That statistics highlighted how well that had performed at even strength in this game as Williams had contributed 2 goals and Kuznetsov and Johansson had each contributed one apiece. Among the third and fourth liners, Jay Beagle had 60% Corsi For and 56% Fenwick For, Brooks Laich had Corsi For of 50%, while the remainder had Corsi For and Fenwick For percentages between 40-50%.

On defense, Karl Alzner earned Corsi For and Fenwick For percentages over 50%. John Carlson had 50% Fenwick For percentage but Corsi For in the mid 40% range. Niskanen and Schmidt, the defensive partners of Alzner and Carlson had Corsi For and Fenwick For percentages between 40-50%. Both Taylor Chorney and Dmitry Orlov had Corsi For and Fenwick For percentages between 30-40%.

table1

Capitals vs Carolina Hurricanes (December 21)
This game was a 2-1 win for the Capitals. The Caps scored one goal in the first period and one goal in the second period and the Hurricanes answered with a goal during third period. In this game, Grubauer, playing the first time since December 10, had an excellent game. In this game, both Jason Chimera and Michael Latta had goals.

Generally, in this game, the Caps did not have good possession statistics, reflecting the fact that they were probably tired, having played the previous night. The only forward to exceed 50% in Corsi For was Jason Chimera. The only other player to exceed 50% in Corsi For was Dmitry Orlov. The only players to exceed 50% in Fenwick For were Chimera and Jay Beagle. For the first line, Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and TJ Oshie were all under 50%, with Ovi exceeding 40% in both Corsi For and Fenwick For, Backstrom exceeding 40% in Corsi For but not in Fenwick For percentage and Oshie in the 30% range for both. The second line members, Marcus Johansson, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Justin Williams all had Corsi For and Fenwick For percentages less than 30%. The third and fourth liners all had Corsi For and Fenwick For over 30% but less than 50%

On defense, Carlson and Orlov were the only two defensemen exceeding 50% in both Corsi For and Fenwick For percentages. Nate Schmidt was just under 30%% in both Corsi For and Fenwick For percentages.

table2

Capitals vs Montreal Canadiens (December 26)
This game was a 3-1 win for the Caps where the Caps scored the first two goals, one each in the first period and second period, with Montreal getting their first goal soon after the Caps scored their second. The Caps also got a third goal during the third period.

The best player for Corsi For and Fenwick was Jason Chimera, who had one goal and one assist and was first star of the night and he had 56% in Corsi For and 61% in Fenwick For. It provided proof that Chimera was the best player on the team. The rest of the team had Corsi For percentages between 40 and 55%. Only one player had a Fenwick For percentage under 40% and that was Nicklas Backstrom just barely under at 38%. The rest of the players had Fenwick For between 40-60%. The Corsi For and Fenwick For percentages among line combinations and defense parings did not coincide with one another. For example, on the first line, T.J. Oshie exceeded 50% in Corsi For and Fenwick For, Ovechkin was between 40-50%, while Backstrom had stats in the low 50’s/early 60s.

table3

By Diane Doyle

About Jon Sorensen

Jon has been a Caps fan since day one, attending his first game at the Capital Centre in 1974. His passion for the Caps has grown over the decades, which has included time as a season ticket holder, social media and community organizer, and most recently led to the founding of NoVa Caps in 2014. Jon earned a Bachelor's of Science in Engineering at Old Dominion University, and is a Systems Engineer during intermissions, which has been instrumental in supporting his Capitals habit.
This entry was posted in Data and Analytics, News and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply