Capitals Weekly Analytics Review – 11/16-11/22

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This article is a game by game analysis from an advanced statistics standpoint.  Statistics were taken from the War on Ice Website for each game and includes iSC (Individual Scoring Chances), iCF (Individual Corsi For), Corsi Plus/Minus, Fenwick Plus Minus, Goals Plus/Minus, Corsi For, Fenwick For, Zone Starts Offensive, Zone Starts Defensive Time on Ice, Corsi For Percentage, and Fenwick For Percentage.  The latter two columns were calculated from the Corsi (or Fenwick) Plus Minus and the Corsi (or Fenwick) For columns.  All statistics listed are based on performance at even strength so power play time and penalty killing time is not included.

Capitals vs Detroit Red Wings – Nov 18, 2015

In this game, which was a 2-1 win for the Caps, the members of the Capitals’ first line, Alex Ovechkin, TJ Oshie and Nicklas Backstrom all had Corsi For and Fenwick For Percentages between 50 and 60 percent, with the highest figures being Oshie at 55.56% in Corsi Percentage For and 57.14% in Fenwick Percentage For.   They could be judged as “okay but nothing special”.

The second line of Evgeny Kuznetsov, Marcus Johansson, and Andre Burakovsky had Corsi For and Fenwick For Percentages ranging from 35% to 40%, with Kuznetsov achieving a Fenwick For percentage of 41.67% which was the highest percentage achieved.  It was a brutal week for possession for that line, although Kuznetsov did earn the game winning goal in the Overtime period.  The third line of Justin Williams, Jay Beagle, and Jason Chimera achieved Corsi For and Fenwick For Percentages ranging from 27% to 40%, with Chimmer having a Corsi For Percentage of 27.78%.  It was a brutal week of possession for that line, as well, although Justin Williams had scored the Caps’ only goal in regulation which was on a power play and is not accounted for in these statistics.

On the fourth line, both Laich and Latta had Corsi For Percentages topping 60%.  Wilson had a 50% Corsi For Percentage.  Their Fenwick For Percentages ranged from 46.15% for Wilson and just over 50% for the others.  All in all, a decent week in shot attempts for them but shot attempts were being blocked, so the unblocked shot attempts figure was mediocre.

For the defense pairings, both members of the second pairing, Karl Alzner and Matt Niskanen had both Corsi and Fenwick Percentages over 50%.  Alzner had a 61.54% Fenwick Percentage and a 57.14 Corsi Percentage while Niskanen had a 52.00 Corsi Percentage and a 57.89 Fenwick Percentage.  Orlov was at 50% Corsi For and 53.33% Fenwick For Percentage.  The other defensemen had percentages below 50, which confirmed the eye test of alot of odd man rushes and other defensive breakdowns had taken place.

The best performers, based on Corsi For Percentage and Fenwick For Percentage were the first line, the second defensive pairing and Dmitry Orlov.

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Capitals vs Dallas Stars – Nov 20, 2015

This game was a 3-2 loss for the Capitals.  The only two goals scored for Caps were by the first line members, Ovechkin and Backstrom.  Their Corsi and Fenwick For Percentages demonstrated that they were the best line with Ovi and Backstrom both in the 60-70% range.  Oshie, the other member of the line, didn’t have as good of a percentage, being in the 55-60% range.

It was not a good game for the second line (Marcus Johansson, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky) from a possession standpoint.  Johansson had the best statistics of that trio and he had 31.58% Corsi For and 34.62% Fenwick For.

The members of both the third and fourth lines had possession stats that ranged from 55% through 65%, with Tom Wilson being the only one to exceed 60% for Corsi For and Fenwick For.  They all had decent games overall, although they had no points to show for it.

For the defensemen, Dmitry Orlov was the only one whose Corsi For and Fenwick For percentages exceeded 60%.  The others ranged from 45-58%, with Taylor Chorney and Matt Niskanen being below 50% and the others above 50%, with Carlson the best of the remainder at about 58% for both Corsi and Fenwick For.

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Capitals vs Colorado Avalanche – Nov 21 2015

This game was a 7-3 win for the Capitals.  The first line (Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, and Oshie) had high Corsi For Percentages – at around 60% but had low Fenwick For Percentages – in the range of 43-50%.  This was an odd statistic but reflects the situation of many shot attempts made but many getting blocked.

The second line (Johansson, Kuznetsov, Williams) had another brutal possession game, with Corsi For Percentages being in the 30-40% range and Fenwick For Percentages being in the 40-45% range.

For the remaining forwards, Chimera and Latta had Corsi For and Fenwick For Percentages exceeding 50%.  Galiev had a Corsi For exceeding 50% but a Fenwick For being below that threshold.  The remainder of the forwards were below 50% in Corsi For and Fenwick For Percentage.  Tom Wilson had the worst statistics for this game.

For the defensemen, Taylor Chorney had the best best Corsi For and Fenwick For Percentages, exceeding 60%.  Dmitry Orlov had best Corsi For and Fenwick For Percentages exceeding 50%, with a much better Fenwick For than Corsi For.  Carlson and Schmidt both had Corsi For and Fenwick For Percentages between 30-40%.  It was not their best game for possession – at all.   Alzner was below 50% in both Corsi For and Fenwick For.  Niskanen exceeded 50% in Corsi For but was under 50% for Fenwick For.

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By Diane Doyle

About Jon Sorensen

Jon has been a Caps fan since day one, attending his first game at the Capital Centre in 1974. His passion for the Caps has grown over the decades, which has included time as a season ticket holder, social media and community organizer, and most recently led to the founding of NoVa Caps in 2014. Jon earned a Bachelor's of Science in Engineering at Old Dominion University, and is a Systems Engineer during intermissions, which has been instrumental in supporting his Capitals habit.
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